Market Update: No summer lull for markets with rate cuts on the horizon
Description
Central banks are at a crucial turning point going from a global tightening to a easing cycle while trying to engineer a soft landing. Policy makers continue to be unusually data dependent and there is a significant uncertainty band around our inflation and labor market forecast. So the incoming data matters, even in summer.
And if you then add the US election on top of that, you get volatility. August will likely be as volatile as July. While we only have two major central bank decisions coming up, the macro data will be important to gauge what central banks will do in September.
August's markets will probably be decided in just eight trading days between the 13th and 22nd, when all the data for the United Kingdom will come out, plus the big macro patch from China, European PMIs and wage data plus inflation in the US.
On the political front, the democratic convention that will most likely make Kamala Harris the official candidate and the Jackson Hole Symposium organized by the Fed are taking place in this period as well. All of these events promise to keep investors on their toes.
Tune in for this week's market breakdown with macro strategist, Boris Kovacevic.
United States
