Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis MSA. Michael discusses his technical analysis of current market conditions, focusing on potential significant shifts in various financial markets. Oliver argues that the US stock market is approaching a major top, characterized by a "broadening top" pattern that suggests an impending decline. He believes the market's upside is not to be trusted, with technical momentum indicators showing weakness in major indexes like the S&P and NASDAQ. The current market represents a bubble, particularly in US markets, with an unprecedented 15-year bull run and a 19-20 fold increase in the NASDAQ 100.



A key concern is the potential for market disruption in unexpected areas, such as banking, credit cards, and Bitcoin. Oliver suggests Bitcoin may be particularly vulnerable, with technical indicators showing similarities to previous market tops. He anticipates a potential implosion that could create significant financial shock waves. Regarding precious metals, Oliver is bullish on gold and especially silver. He predicts silver could reach $60-$70 by year-end, potentially outperforming gold dramatically. He sees this as part of a broader shift away from traditional financial systems, potentially leading to a new monetary reality.



Oliver expects a prolonged bear market rather than a sudden crash, drawing parallels to historical market corrections. He anticipates widespread economic consequences, including potential changes to major institutions like the Federal Reserve. The dollar index is expected to continue declining, potentially dropping to 70 or lower. Commodities are another area of interest, with Oliver suggesting they're poised for a significant upward move. He believes the combination of these factors could create rapid, dramatic changes across financial markets, catching many investors off guard. The overarching theme is one of potential systemic transformation, where incremental changes suddenly erupt into major shifts, challenging existing economic assumptions and potentially reshaping financial landscapes in unexpected ways.



Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Introduction

00:00:43 - Fall Technicals & Outlook

00:04:33 - Long Grinding Bear Mkt?

00:10:17 - Market Euphoria Waning?

00:13:08 - Bitcoin Charts & Technicals

00:18:10 - Bitcoin Market Forecast

00:20:25 - Increasing Market Risk?

00:22:42 - Dollar/Gold Weaponization

00:25:07 - The Powell Surrender

00:27:28 - Gold During Flash Crashes

00:29:50 - Commodities/Consequences

00:36:28 - Bear Case for T-Bills

00:39:37 - Rate Cuts & Mkt. FOMO

00:44:37 - Thoughts on Silver

00:47:27 - Silver Technicals & Rally

00:54:35 - Argentina Javier Milei

00:56:04 - Concluding Thoughts



Guest Links:

Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/

X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA

Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5

Email: mailto:michaeloliver@olivermsa.com



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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.



In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in pric...