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Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens–Coronavirus: A Note (pdf)

T H E  T E C H N I C A L  I N C E R T O  C O L L E C T I O N (460 pg pdf)

Ethics of Precaution: Individual and Systemic Risk (Sign up to download pdf)

Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…”(Sign up to download pdf)

@nntaleb We need a hall of shame in this thread. These people got us here owing to the lack of preparation. Murderous idiots! https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1241355290852786181   Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine extends great thanks to ⁦@GrantSSC⁩ and other twitterlifters for helping with this. pic.twitter.com/1OUiy8l51a Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Jaffer of course. Make lemons https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1240735924029403136   Permalink 9:01 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@HarryDCrane Cost how many lives? https://twitter.com/subhash_kak/status/1241199430151389184   Permalink 8:17 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel By the end of Mar, entire country will be on lockdown. Hope it doesn’t take that long If we had listened to @yaneerbaryam, @normonics, and @nntaleb when they issued their warning (Jan 26th, I believe), this wouldn’t be necessary. IF we have guts to do it, recovery starts May 1 pic.twitter.com/eMD0hjZX2L Permalink 7:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There is a suspicion that STAT NEWS which published the Ioannidis article is an Industry shill. It published Henry I. Miller AFTER he was caught working for Monsanto for which he was fired from Stanford and his columns were removed from Forbes. https://usrtk.org/our-investigations/open-letter-to-stat-its-time-for-strong-clear-coi-disclosure-policies/   Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Some days I have hordes after me. Some large event happens, and I can do no wrong. Then a quiet period… https://twitter.com/YourCareerflex/status/1241157783954829315   Permalink 5:29 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Third conversation with @nntaleb about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is systemic risk / what not to do when a truck is headed your way https://youtu.be/FUgHKX0clhU   Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb typo: “instead of” contating you. Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Spyros is both an admirable man & a genuine scholar. — When you disagree with @spyrosmakrid, as a friend, you solve it w/Ouzo personally, never in public. Unlike Phil the rat @PTetlock who mocks you on the web before contacting you. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1241071337986277376   Permalink 11:42 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@spyrosmakrid Nobody can doubt that the world will now spend tens of trillions to fight the coronavirus while spending would have been minimal in Jan, not to mention all the lives that would have been saved and the trillions of stock market losses avoided. I must admit I was wrong. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1241020475930705920   Permalink 11:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine in Atlanta is looking for a barbell to buy for immediate delivery. Permalink 10:36 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Central aspect of the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE at the systemic level: it applies to a very narrow set of conditions, centrally: FAT TAILS from multiplicative effects, w/o circuit breakers. The problem w dangerous BS vendors like @SaPinker/@PTetlock is their half training. 1 /n Permalink 10:28 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My paper on tail option pricing (revealing the equations at UNIVERSA) is under revision by a journal. What happened is not an “outlier” But anyone who after today still says “tail options are expensive” deserves to be put in a sanatorium. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1159545366330642434   Permalink 9:19 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Ioannidis problem: these pseudoempirical idiots don’t get that INSURANCE is cheaper than catastrophe, which is why under convexity you act early, quickly, and … CHEAPLY. We now spent 2 Trillion when it could have been minimal on Jan 26. https://twitter.com/BenMcCrea24/status/1241018591060856834?s=20   Perm