Motion: Bitcoin Halvening is Priced In (Jason Williams vs. Christian Keroles)
Description
Guests:
Jason Williams (@JWilliamsFstmed) - debating FOR the motion
Christian Keroles (@ck_SNARKs) - debating AGAINST the motion
Host:
Richard Yan (@gentso09)
Today’s motion is “Bitcoin halvening is priced in.” Halvening, or halving, refers to the regularly scheduled reduction in the supply of new bitcoins to reward miners. This happens roughly every four years, and the supply is reduced by 50% each time. Halvening is built into the protocol and not a contentious topic. What is contentious, is whether the market for bitcoin has incorporated the effects of this upcoming activity.
The guests we have for this episode are two bitcoiners. One works in bitcoin investment, and the other in bitcoin education and marketing. Turns out there are more areas where the two debaters agree, than disagree. And our listeners can trace the convergence in their arguments. For better or worse, I get involved in the discussion a bit more than usual in this episode. As a sample of topics, we discussed miner response to the halvening, the stock-to-flow model, institutional interests in BTC, and many more.
If you would like to debate or want to nominate someone, please DM @blockdebate.
Please note that nothing in our podcast should be construed as financial advice.
Source of select items discussed in the debate:
- Continued demand increase due to institutional, price-inelastic allocation to BTC asset class (Kyle Samani from Multicoin Capital): https://twitter.com/KyleSamani/status/1213548776700416000
- Pomp (Morgan Creek) citing market run-up as evidence of halvening not priced in: https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1229250083968946176
- Kelvin Koh (Spartan Capital) citing BTC's difficulty to value as evidence against EMH https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1198071110798983169
- Charts from Coin Metrics: https://coinmetrics.io/
- Nic Carter of Castle Island Capital wrote about EMH: https://medium.com/@nic__carter/an-introduction-to-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-for-bitcoiners-ed7e90be7c0d
- BTC Stock-to-flow model by PlanB: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
- Plan B juxtaposing STF vs EMH: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107
United States
