My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?
Update: 2025-09-10
Description
Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns.
I cover:
(0:00 ) The $500B question
(01:11 ) Why the Nasdaq Index is the benchmark
(03:35 ) Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft deal
(05:50 ) The bull case: OpenAI’s trillion-dollar path
(09:33 ) The AI market explosion
(12:39 ) The bear case: Competition and constraints
(17:13 ) Exploring the models of tomorrow
(20:58 ) The disruption premium
(23:21 ) Where will OpenAI’s revenue come from?
(29:14 ) The final verdict
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