Anti-regime forces are focused on seizing control of military bases.

Military analyst Paul Greening returns to Beyond the Mekong for an update on Myanmar, where fighting has intensified since Sagaing and Mandalay regions were struck by an earthquake on March 28 that left more than 5,300 people dead and a damage bill of $11 billion.

Greening told The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt in Mae Sot that the emphasis by anti-regime forces had shifted from taking large swathes of territory to seizing towns, smaller cities, and military bases from where the military’s weapons are being captured and used against them.

It was this strategy that enabled rebels to shoot down two helicopters with 120mm shells, which have a range of 10 kilometers and were “harvested” from military bases seized by ethnic armed organizations fighting to oust the junta.

He also says a deal between the military and Russia to install two 55MW nuclear reactors in Dawei, less than 400 kilometers as the wind blows from Bangkok, is doubtful and that China is realizing the junta can’t protect its oil and gas outlets and is now holding separate talks with the Arakan Army

Greening, who has worked as a political analyst and consultant covering the conflict in Myanmar, also says the junta has diverted funds meant for victims of the Mandalay earthquake to the reconstruction of its capital in Naypyidaw.

And he provides an update on criminal syndicates and human traffickers running the scam compounds after the Chinese-backed Thai crackdown along its borders.