EirGrid, which is responsible for operating, developing and enhancing the electricity grid and market, has forecast that there will be adequate generation capacity and a reduced risk of system alerts in the coming months, as the Winter Outlook for 2025/26 is published.

The annual Winter Outlook helps to inform the electricity industry and supports preparation for the coming months. The 2025/26 report covers the period from 3 November 2025 to 5 April 2026.

It is a point-in-time assessment, based on the best information available. The data freeze date for this year was 12 September 2025.

In the Winter Outlook, EirGrid studies the expected generation capacity and the forecast electricity demand to determine if there is an adequate generation capacity margin.

The analysis identifies the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) which is a mathematical formula, based on studies, of the number of hours in a period (typically per year) during which the available generation will be inadequate to meet demand.

The higher this number is, the greater the risk that there will be insufficient generation available.

According to this year's Winter Outlook, the LOLE in Ireland for the five months of the winter period is 1.1 hours, which is inside the 3-hour annual LOLE Standard set for Ireland.

The LOLE for this winter is down from 3.6 hours last winter, 21 hours the winter before that and 51 hours the winter before.

The generation adequacy situation in Ireland has improved for a number of reasons, including new sources of generation on the system, the completion of the new 500 MW Greenlink Interconnector with Britain and the continued implementation of the Security of Supply Programme which is led by the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU).

Through the Security of Supply programme 750 MW of Retained Existing Units (REU) at Moneypoint and 649 MW of Temporary Emergency Generation (TEG) is available as additional out-of-market generation to system operators in EirGrid's Control Centre if required.

Additionally, 108 MW of new gas fired peaker plant and 45 MW of new batteries, delivered through the Capacity Market, are now available to the system.

The system may enter the Alert (Amber) State at times, most likely at periods of low wind and low interconnector imports.

This LOLE measurement does not necessarily mean that electricity consumers will be without supply for any period.

There is a low probability of the system entering the Emergency (Red) State, due to insufficient generation being available to meet the demand.

The report notes that protocols are in place with large energy users that would mitigate any impact on homes and businesses, where sufficient notice of an event can be provided.

In a review of Winter 2024/25, the analysis shows that there were two System Alerts issued over that period. These were issued due to storm weather warnings and were not adequacy related.

Last Winter, a new peak demand record of 6,024 MW was recorded on the 8th of January 2025 due to cold weather.

The analysis of Ireland's peak demand over winter indicates that a 1°C decrease in outside temperature results in a 55 MW increase in peak demand, meaning electricity demand in the winter is heavily influenced by weather conditions. For Winter Outlook 2025/26, EirGrid's median forecast peak demand is 6,044 MW.

Diarmaid Gillespie, Director of System Operations at EirGrid, said:

"The risk of insufficient generation being available to meet demand this Winter is much lower than in recent years and within the standards set by our Department, which is positive."

"While the situation can be more challenging during the colder winter months, the securing of new generators and battery storage units through the Capacity Market, and out of market measures, have been key to delivering this improved position.

Our role at EirGrid is to balance supply and demand every minute of the day from the National Control Centre, while also planning for Ireland's long-term electricity nee...