Nvidia’s Rough Week… And Why Users Start & Stop GLP-1 Drugs 1/31/25
Update: 2025-01-31
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Nvidia wrapping up a rough week, as the chip giant enters bear market territory. The concerns surrounding China’s DeepSeek AI model, and if the chip crunch has our traders rethinking tech’s leadership. Plus.. weight loss drugs taking the market by storm, and a new study is diving deeper into why consumers are starting and stopping usage. The factors contributing to their decision, and what it means for the entire obesity drug space.
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Like the NADSAC Market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square,
00:01:08
this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight.
00:01:10
Under pressure and video share, sinking over 15% this week as deep seek and trade fears
00:01:16
royal the semi-sector is this finally the start of the great rotation out of tech will debate that.
00:01:21
And a new study into the reasons patients stop and restart using weight loss drugs,
00:01:26
we'll talk to the lead author to find out what it could mean for the GLP1 market.
00:01:30
Plus shares of Decker's get decked after earnings, the term master lays out his potential breakout
00:01:34
stars, and the NADSAC 100 turns 40, how the index has changed over the years, and what it says
00:01:40
about investor appetites. I'm Melissa Lee. Welcome to you. Be with the NADSAC on the desk tonight.
00:01:45
Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Dan Nathan, and Carter Braxton Worth.
00:01:48
We're going to get to the Nvidia selloff in just a moment, but we do want to start with a sweetly
00:01:52
announcement from the president that sends stocks sharply lower late in the session.
00:01:56
Trump confirming the tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China will go into effect tomorrow
00:02:01
in promising levies are coming for chips, energy, and metals.
00:02:04
Seymour sees Megan Casela's got all the latest, Megan.
00:02:07
Melissa, we just finished hearing from the president. From the Oval Office,
00:02:10
spent about 30 minutes talking to reporters and clarifying his use on all of these points,
00:02:15
saying that yes, those tariffs will be taking effect beginning tomorrow.
00:02:18
It's going to be 25 percent on Canada and Mexico.
00:02:21
10 percent on China, he says it's going to be entirely because of the flow of fentanyl.
00:02:25
He also said, quote, we are not looking for a concession suggesting that at this point,
00:02:29
there is nothing left that any of the three countries could do in order to escape those tariffs,
00:02:34
taking effect within 24 hours. He also said the tariff rate could increase substantially,
00:02:39
but it also could not leaving the door open for some changes there.
00:02:43
He also said that on Canadian crude oil specifically, he would probably reduce that
00:02:47
tariff rate to 10 percent. All other Canadian goods will see a 25 percent tariff,
00:02:52
but Canadian crude is likely going to see only a 10 percent tariff.
00:02:56
He then spent a lot of time talking about many more sets of tariffs that he is considering
00:03:00
that are likely to take effect in the future, specifically on oil and gas.
00:03:04
He says around February 18th, they're looking at putting tariffs on oil and gas from all countries.
00:03:09
It sounds like he also mentioned chips and things associated with chips.
00:03:13
Steel and aluminum higher than he imposed in the first term. He also said copper, but said that one
00:03:18
would take a little bit longer, presumably because it requires an investigation. And then he spoke
00:03:22
about various forms of medicines and pharmaceuticals that he wants to see tariffs on as well.
00:03:27
He also was asked whether he's thinking about putting tariffs on all goods coming in
00:03:31
from the European Union, and he said absolutely. He sees a lot of issues with that trading
00:03:36
relationships with the EU, so more to come on that front as well. And then finally,
00:03:40
he was also talking a little bit about any reaction to the tariffs. He says that he's not concerned
00:03:45
about market reaction to these tariffs. He says tariffs don't cause inflation in his words,
00:03:49
they cause success. And that while there could be some temporary short-term disruption,
00:03:54
people will understand that, Melissa, so a whole lot there to sift through on tariffs.
00:03:58
And then just one final headline to bring you since we just hit 5pm.
00:04:01
CBS News is reporting that Trump officials are putting a pause on most federal government
00:04:06
websites beginning now. At 5pm, we are seeing some beginning to come down, presumably,
00:04:11
that so those agencies can begin to scrub their websites for anything, mentioning diversity,
00:04:15
equity, and inclusion. So more to watch on that front as well, Melissa.
00:04:18
Megan, thank you. That was a lot. Megan Kasella from Washington DC. By the way, Trump also said,
00:04:26
we'll be doing something very substantial in tariffs with the European Union. So we are seeing
00:04:30
sharp reactions in the currency markets to a lot of these headlines, peso, Canadian dollar,
00:04:34
as well as the euro taking a hit on the back. But what's your initial take here? We sort of knew
00:04:39
this was going to happen. We didn't know it was going to happen in quite this way.
00:04:42
Oh, we didn't know it was going to happen. But here we are. We didn't know Saturday.
00:04:45
We heard March 1. I thought March 1 would have had a line this morning for Canada and Mexico.
00:04:50
Actually, we started to digest that yesterday. China, we've had this number out there. 10% on some
00:04:55
levels already been in the market and already kind of a relief. The concept of this being
00:05:00
to reverse flow of illegal immigrants and illegal drugs is one way to get going on it.
00:05:07
I mean, there's a lot of different rationale out there from the administration as to why these
00:05:11
things are happening. Ultimately, it's really about a competitive balance that they believe
00:05:14
anyone who's in deficit. We're in deficit, too, should be at tariffs put on them. It's interesting
00:05:19
to think about the currency markets because going into this, you can make an argument that the U.S.
00:05:24
dollar was already strong and that there was a lot of pressure actually, potentially,
00:05:28
on multinationals in this country because of the stronger dollar. We started to hear about that
00:05:32
in earning season. When I hear that, at least at this stage of a cycle, it doesn't really bother me
00:05:37
as an investor for a lot of these companies. But for the European Union, which had a 25 basis point
00:05:42
cut this week, ECB, if anything, was remembered to maybe they could go more, they will go more.
00:05:46
I think we're breaking parity here and I think it will be just to be clear. I think that will be
00:05:51
a mitigating factor on inflation. I think a stronger dollar certainly will have more buying power
00:05:55
and be helpful, but we don't really know what the impact of all this and it's just interesting to
00:05:59
see how quickly tariffs have come back into the market, which closed on the lows today, but think
00:06:03
about where we were a week ago. Yeah, so he said that he doesn't expect the markets to be affected
00:06:08
and that it's not going to affect inflation. I'll just make this point. We just got this GDP
00:06:12
number at 2.3%. This is after two consecutive 3% GDP prints quarterly. So the economy was kind of
00:06:19
limping into the end of the year. I think expectations were higher than that for Q4. So one of the
00:06:24
things we can be fairly certain on, if these sorts of tariffs stay on, some of these key industries,
00:06:29
it is going to weaken economic demand here. It just will. And so at the end of the day,
00:06:34
you know, the president uses the stock market as a report card, but if the economy starts to weaken,
00:06:39
the S&P is going to start to anticipate that. I mean, the dollar obviously is such an important
00:06:44
thing. The sector, of course, of the area, the market has the biggest exposure is tech. I mean,
00:06:48
bar none, right? So obviously the big consumer staples, the big energy names, but technology is
00:06:52
the highest sort of exposure to a week or strong dollar. And it's no nonsense when the S&P
00:07:00
is doing one thing, but the tech now, down on the year, you've got semi-struggling. And I think
00:07:06
a lot of it has to do with not only the great appreciation that preceded this start to the year,
00:07:10
but the dollar. Right. Yeah, and I think a lot of this too. People were wondering, are the
00:07:14
tariffs just going to be negotiation tactics, or are these actually going to come on? And
00:07:16
clearly we're seeing these are coming on. And this is why the bond markets have been pricing
00:07:21
in inflation. I mean, this, whether it's tariffs, whether it's tax cuts, I mean, a lot of these
00:07:24
are inflationary policies. And that is why markets are concerned about where inflation's going. So
00:07:29
they're optimistic about deregulation that are worried about inflation. Markets are kind of up
00:07:33
and down as they're trying to figure out where that's going to go, but I would expect that's going
00:07:37
to continue to affect their markets as this news continues to come out. I mean, we've been thinking
00:07:40
about oil and gas and commodities and so on in terms of the impact of tariffs. But when you think
00:07:46
about pharmaceuticals, you know, you think about the inputs into drugs that are manufactured here in
00:07:50
the United States, but the inputs come from abroad. That's where you start thinking, maybe we have not yet
00:07:56
really fully digested the impact of tariffs and the ripple effects that can have across several
00:08:01
different industries. Well, and that's it. And we hadn't really heard a whole lot about the impact
00:08:05
for healthcare, but certainly for far more specifically. And so that's part of where the markets
00:08:10
uncertainty around really what's going to, what's coming next, what kind of teeth will there be
00:08:15
attached to this? You know, the other side of what we were hearing before we heard about starting
00:08:18
Saturday with Canada, Mexico is that, okay, there'll be some offsets. There's going to be a lot of
00:08:22
trading going on between the lines and that, you know, maybe the headlines will be busier than actually
00:08:26
the reality of this. So I get back to markets, which today also had to digest a PCA, PCE number,
00:08:33
which most people know is a big, a big number for the Fed to fall, which came in significantly higher
00:08:38
against all relative than expected. So to the extent that inflation is something that we're still
00:08:43
fighting, we had a Fed this week, that pretty much kind of set as much. They argued that the change
00:08:49
in the language was really just to clean up the statement a little bit, but the reality is inflation
00:08:54
is still an issue here. And markets, especially the part of the market, Carter's referring to the tech
00:08:59
world, I mean, let's be clear, mega-cap tech should be the most insulated from inflation here,
00:09:04
and that is what seems to be struggling. Yeah, let's talk about that here because Nvidia really
00:09:08
closed out a rough week here, the stock unable to rebound from Monday's deep-seek scare. It is down
00:09:13
nearly 16% since then. That is its worst weeks in September 2022. Nvidia now off more than 21%
00:09:20
off record highs hit the start of the month, putting it firmly in bear market territory. But while tech
00:09:25
and Siamese put pressure on the broader markets, there were some winners here on the week,
00:09:28
communication services, staples, healthcare, financials, posting solid gains. We saw this in
00:09:33
Monday too. We saw good breath in the market outside of technology. So is this the start of a
00:09:37
rotation that that may stick here, Carter? Well, the one thing about communications is they change
00:09:42
it. We know it's AT&T, rise of what they got in there and it's good, bad in Netflix, those are tech.
00:09:47
So certain tech, let's just call it tech, is holding up well, whereas Siamese and AI and some of this is
00:09:54
struggling. So a very mixed bag on that score. But it is important that the things that really let us
00:10:00
are starting to churn and struggle. Yeah, what do you make of this sort of rotation that we saw
00:10:06
this week? Yeah, and this is really what we've been looking to do the last several months. I don't
00:10:10
necessarily think that there is some downturn that's coming in tech or AI. I think some of this is
00:10:13
happening with DC is probably a little bit overblown here. But I do think you want to be looking at
00:10:18
those other areas with the market. You want to be looking at things like banks and things like
00:10:21
cyclicals. I think a lot of those are going to continue to do well here. And I think when you look
00:10:25
at AI, especially with the news this week, if it really is as cheap and as quick to create as
00:10:31
they're saying, and I know there's a lot of questions about that, the way to play that is with the
00:10:35
other 493 stocks and the SBFF 100. If it's going to become much more accessible to these other companies,
00:10:40
it's going to really increase productivity. It's going to make them much more efficient. Yes,
00:10:43
this might be a longer term play, but I think it's going to be a good thing for the markets in the
00:10:46
long run. But the overall market is not just those seven companies. And by the way, it's not just
00:10:50
deep-seek on Nvidia. It's terrorists, right? So if they have faced further curbs in terms of the
00:10:54
kinds of trips they can sell to China and their revenues will be limited in that respect. On top of
00:11:00
the deep-seek scare, I mean, there are a couple of reasons why you might be scared. Yeah, and before deep-seek,
00:11:04
we're already starting to wonder if there was an over-build as far as infrastructure is concerned.
00:11:08
A lot of these companies that actually need the chips and are building out the data centers.
00:11:11
I mean, they had been ordering fairly aggressively. At some point, you're going to see a drop-off
00:11:15
in that order. We've already seen the acceleration of growth in Nvidia. I mean, a lot of folks have
00:11:19
been waiting for this in Nvidia. And again, down what, 20% you just said from the highs. You know,
00:11:24
go back to last summer into early August. Nvidia was down 35%. So this is kind of the run-of-the-mill
00:11:30
sort of move for Nvidia, except this time it really does seem about something fundamental.
00:11:35
The last time it was technical, it was momentum-driven, it was very crowded. I think since then,
00:11:40
we had some of the guys like Marvel and Broadcom join the party because some of Nvidia's largest
00:11:45
customers have been contracting with them to make specialized trips for products and services
00:11:50
that like, that was always going to happen, right? What we didn't see is AMD and Intel join the
00:11:55
party, right? So the semi-trade was very, very narrow. The last thing I'll just say is that,
00:11:59
you know, Microsoft and those results, I mean, we haven't even mentioned that yet.
00:12:03
Down 6%, it's been a massive underperformer. Microsoft was one of the early beneficiaries
00:12:07
in the stock market, early 23, from their partnership with OpenAI. So think about everything we learned
00:12:12
here. Maybe these hyperscalers don't need as many trips to train the models and make new models,
00:12:17
all right? So that happened this week. Then we have a situation where OpenAI and Microsoft,
00:12:22
their relationship has been fraying a little bit. OpenAI is a big customer of Microsoft's Azure cloud,
00:12:28
right? And so at the end of the day, you know, there's definitely some push and pull their
00:12:32
last thing. OpenAI is in the market to raise tens of billions of dollars right now. That soft
00:12:37
bank is supposedly going to kind of leave. So a lot of things, a little bit for everybody, to me,
00:12:41
it really feels like this trade is cooling a little bit. In terms of rotation, which is obviously
00:12:46
always a part of market, trying to figure out where you can win or deliver alpha. The biggest
00:12:50
single rotation in your data course is your up, right? And that's value, right? So your time at the
00:12:55
Stocks 600 in Europe, our COVID-19 is a 15p. It's up seven and a half percent. The DAX, the big player,
00:13:02
Germany's up eight and a half. And so there's very little tech there. There's very little AI,
00:13:07
there's very little anything except big heavy industrials, banks, energy stocks that have lagged.
00:13:11
And money has gone there. That's the biggest single rotation going on.
00:13:15
I agree with that. I run an international ETF. I mean, I see the European banks with I think
00:13:19
balance sheets that are as good as the American ones. People think that Europe's a mess.
00:13:22
It is, in terms of the public side of it. But again, the private banks, even though you can argue
00:13:27
Deutsche Bank is a quasi-sovereign. The end of the day, ECB is probably still the place you'd be
00:13:33
most worried. European banks are paying high dims, they're cheaper. SAP Siemens, I mean, think about
00:13:37
the industrial spot across Europe, which is underperformed over the last couple of years. Remember,
00:13:41
the underperformance of the Mag 7, or at least the top five tech companies in the world,
00:13:45
is partially a, you know, partially at least what was a big impact to the headwinds on investing
00:13:51
around the world. Again, there was a crowding out effect. So I like that call. I continue to think that
00:13:56
you could look all the way back to March of last year and say semi-speak there. I mean, outside of
00:14:00
NVIDIA, you could look at AMD. I mean, AMD has hurt a lot of investors over the last 18 months.
00:14:05
It happens to be the A in band, by the way. So it may be a different year. But anyway, I think it's
00:14:11
a fascinating time. You wanted broadening. You're getting it. All right. Meanwhile, stocks ended
00:14:15
the month. On a down-noter, next guest says the markets in Fed are overly sanguine on growth
00:14:19
and overly pessimistic on inflation. Jack Genesewitz of Natixis Investment Managers joined us now
00:14:24
in the fast line. JJ, great to have you with us. A week ago, we didn't have all these this cascade
00:14:30
of tariffs coming down the pike on Saturday. We didn't have the deep-seek scare. Does your view
00:14:36
of the market change? You know, I think you still have to look at the underlying dynamics here.
00:14:42
And the fundamentals of the US economy are still very strong. You know, and we're looking at
00:14:46
nominal growth coming in probably closer to 4% for the full year, slowing from 5%. And that's still
00:14:52
above trend levels. And so when you think about that backdrop, that's still pretty good for
00:14:57
the corporate earnings here. And that's still where it all comes down to. So look past a little bit
00:15:01
of this geopolitical noise and really the underlying story here is the foundational economic
00:15:06
backdrop for the US economy is still pretty robust. I completely get that you can say it's noise.
00:15:11
I mean, the Exxon Mobile CEO on the conference call actually said, you know, tariffs are just speculation
00:15:16
that it's been driven higher by the media. So there is that point of view. But corporate earnings
00:15:21
in some respects, I mean, it's backward looking and granted the guidance is forward looking. But right
00:15:25
now, the snapshots that we're getting is the reflection of an economy that is a capsule in time
00:15:31
that is no longer the economy we now have with tariffs in place. How do you interpret the impact
00:15:36
of tariffs, even if it is in the next three to six months, because the next three to six months
00:15:41
impacts the guide that companies are giving now, as well as a guide for the rest of the year.
00:15:45
And that's going to be a wild card, I think, going forward, right? Because, you know,
00:15:50
we've heard we start some fits, right? On day one, we were supposed to get tariffs. We didn't.
00:15:54
Then we were going to see Columbia being tariff. Well, they backed down on that one.
00:15:58
You know, then it was March 1st. Now it's February 1st. So you know, a lot of this is still a lot of
00:16:02
headline news coming out. So it's really difficult, I think, to really just portfolios here, because
00:16:07
the bottom line tariffs are still probably going to be a negotiation tool. You're going to start
00:16:11
high, ratchet it back down until you get something. But that number, if we end up having to implement
00:16:15
tariffs, probably going to be something much lower and maybe less impactful. So I hate to say it,
00:16:20
but you almost have to be reactionary with some of this stuff rather than proactive.
00:16:23
And Jack, this is Courtney here. Thanks for coming. I'm curious about your outlook on inflation,
00:16:29
right? So you actually mentioned here that people are overly pessimistic with inflation.
00:16:33
And I'm curious here, if inflation kind of stays where it's at, we have this higher for longer rates.
00:16:37
They're not going up and not coming down from here. Do you see that as problematic or can the
00:16:40
economy continue to do well with where rates and inflation currently are? You know, I think we're
00:16:46
in an okay spot. You know, I certainly would like to see rates continuing to come down something,
00:16:50
you know, closer to the low fours or the higher threes with the tenure. But when I take a step back
00:16:57
and look at the inflation backdrop, you know, I think the big picture level says it all, right?
00:17:01
And we're seeing the labor market slow as a result you should expect to see wage growth continuing to
00:17:06
come down. And then, you know, from that perspective, where do you get the demand pull from? And then
00:17:11
you start looking at what's going on with regard to housing, you know, you look at all the real-time
00:17:14
indicators, and that continues to come down. So between those two things, I certainly have a hard
00:17:19
time seeing inflation re-accelerating. Maybe it comes down slower than expected, but I think it's
00:17:24
still heads lower. And then I think, you know, basically place to the idea that maybe we should be
00:17:29
expecting more cuts than hikes in here over the rest of 2025. Jack, great to speak with you. Thanks
00:17:35
for your time. Appreciate it. Thank you. Jack, you know, Seguitz. Do you agree with JJ? Well, you know,
00:17:41
cuts as we get back into the second half of the year may be a reality. I mean, the fed's going to
00:17:45
be watching the labor market, you know, laser focused on the dynamics that I think looked kind of
00:17:51
weak last fall, which put the 50-bip moved out of the gates. I think the markets right now are certainly
00:17:58
trying to digest where we've had a tremendous headwind from things that we just don't know about.
00:18:04
I think this week shook markets to their core. You had a challenge, at least to the whole ethos
00:18:08
around the chip world, and the infrastructure spend around it. You also had dynamics around tariffs
00:18:13
that we didn't think. I also just think the strategic war with China has a relates to chips.
00:18:17
How important companies like Taiwan, Semiar, and the Global Sphere and how worried we should be in
00:18:21
the U.S. if some of these things get a lot worse. That's what this week was about. We came into this
00:18:25
week feeling almost breathless and without any concern. And, you know, welcome to reality. Yeah,
00:18:30
you know, listen, again, on the inflation stuff, if tariffs come in and they stay here and they
00:18:35
cause the economy to weaken, inflation is going to come down. I mean, like that's just going to
00:18:39
happen here. And again, you know, we were worried about stagnation, but look at the numbers that we
00:18:43
put up last year with inflation on a cumulative level. It's still pretty high. So at the end of the day,
00:18:48
you know, we went from talking about rate hikes, maybe in the back half of this year to possibly
00:18:53
going back to if I'm looking at the Semi Fed watch tool, I'm looking at June and it's still pricing
00:18:58
about a 50% probability of four and a quarter on the upper band. So that would be another 25
00:19:04
basis points, you know, like it's a coin flip. So at the end of the day, I just think that inflation
00:19:09
probably topped out is my guess. And, you know, now it's up to the economy just to try to hang in
00:19:14
there a little bit. Coming up, more on tariff turmoil in the energy sector, oil closing out a
00:19:18
losing week and two energy giants commenting on the movement of latest earnings reports, more on
00:19:23
that next was hitting the deck. The parent company of Ugg and Hoke up plunging despite raising
00:19:28
full year guide and the details on that disconnect right after this.
00:19:34
This is fast money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
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00:20:39
We've got breaking news on charges against the former Fed official, Steve Liesman's got the details.
00:20:48
Steve. Thank you Melissa. Yes, the Justice Department. Just the last hour,
00:20:54
charged a former senior Federal Reserve official with conspiracy to commit economic espionage.
00:20:59
The Justice says a 63-year-old John Harold Rogers is alleged to have passed, quote, "sensitive
00:21:05
trade secret information from the Federal Reserve to co-conspirators in China."
00:21:10
Rogers was set specifically to solicit briefing books for governors, proprietary data sets,
00:21:15
and sensitive information about FOMC deliberations. Apparently, he printed this info out or
00:21:20
sent it to his personal email and violation of Federal Reserve rules and preparation for trips to China.
00:21:26
Rogers allegedly made false statements to the Federal Reserve's Inspector General about
00:21:31
accessing and passage of this information as well as the association with co-conspirators.
00:21:36
Conspirators. He worked as a Fed senior advisor in the Division of International
00:21:41
Finance from 2010 to 2021. These alleged actions ran from 2013 to 2025 in the
00:21:50
indictment. It says that's even after he left the Fed. The Justice Department says the info was passed,
00:21:55
that Rogers passed, was, quote, "economically valuable." They went on to say that the data provided
00:22:01
could allow China to manipulate U.S. markets. He provided info, quote, "under the guise of
00:22:06
teaching classes." The indictment cites two unnamed co-conspirators who worked, who the indictments
00:22:13
has worked for the Chinese intelligence apparatus and presented themselves as graduate students.
00:22:18
He was paid $450,000 in 2023 as a part-time professor at a Chinese university.
00:22:25
The Fed declined to make any public comments about this and the Federal Reserve Inspector General,
00:22:29
who was involved in this, but is quoted in this, could not immediately be reached for comment.
00:22:33
Wow. Steve, thank you. Steve Lisman. Pleasure. A pair of oil giants dropping after their
00:22:39
earnings reports this morning, Chevron missing Q4 profit estimates with the company's refining
00:22:43
business posting its first loss in four years. Meantime, Exxon beating an EPS becoming up short on
00:22:48
revenue, these moves coming as President Trump plans to put tariffs on oil from Mexico in Canada,
00:22:54
starting tomorrow. What did you make of interesting moves here, especially Exxon Mobile?
00:22:58
Well, I thought the moves in the stocks were very overly sensitive to the refining margins and
00:23:03
the refining misses, because Exxon is the same thing. Upstream beat, first of all, the free
00:23:07
cash flow beat in both places. And I still think that that's what you want to be most focused on,
00:23:11
along with Capix, if you're an investor in the integrates. I like the European ones even more.
00:23:15
But I like Chevron. If you remember, of course, it was the C and Blysep, I think, at this point.
00:23:21
Who knows? But I like it today. I liked it last year. I like Exxon. Exxon is recently as March,
00:23:26
excuse me, as October, was like it was breaking out to fresh all-time highs. And it's pulled back,
00:23:32
and in fact, you can make an argument it's done almost nothing over the last couple years after
00:23:36
energy really outperforms. So I think the energy names, I guess it's funny. I don't think that they're
00:23:42
the really the ones caught in the line of fire on the tariff dynamics, especially companies like Exxon,
00:23:47
especially, which is a global company and has a lot of their assets around the world. We'll see,
00:23:51
I don't think that was a reaction today. Exxon CEO said, we think we'll define under this tariff
00:23:56
scenario, because we can produce oil more efficiently than our peers. And that's a benefit of being
00:24:01
a large integrated. Yeah. And I think, too, when it came to Chevron, what you're seeing there is
00:24:04
there's a lot of still pressure with their Hess deal. And I think there's a lot of questions there,
00:24:08
and they're likely not going to get answers until the end of this year. So I think some of that's
00:24:11
probably why you're seeing a little more pressure on Chevron than you are Exxon, because both of them
00:24:14
had like refinery issues that I think were the biggest things that we saw there. But I think
00:24:18
what's interesting longer term is Chevron is getting in this space of producing power plants. And
00:24:23
that was something this week that we saw everyone saying, oh, we might not need as much energy
00:24:26
if AI is much cheaper to produce. But a lot of that demand is going to come from things like
00:24:31
manufacturing, ensuring, electric vehicles, electrification of the economy. So I think a lot of
00:24:35
that longer term is actually still a really big opportunity. I mean, it's such a curious space,
00:24:40
because it's not a big part of the market, right? Energy of 3 plus percent, the two or three
00:24:44
big stocks are half the way it can go. But it's also, you think of it as dull, but it's really
00:24:48
high beta, right? So it really underperforms in 1819, and energy really outperforms in 2021,
00:24:54
and now it's been sort of the opposite since '22. Ultimately, the yields are safe, I think we
00:25:00
agree on that. And I think they belong in every portfolio to some extent.
00:25:04
All right. So 25 percent tariffs on our biggest trading partners, Canada and Mexico,
00:25:08
these large integrated names, they get a lot of oil, right? From those two countries, they refine
00:25:14
them here. The margin's going to be down. That was one of the reasons that these stocks sold off.
00:25:17
And the Chevron CEO in the call this morning referred to the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.
00:25:22
These guys are so far up, you know what? Like they just got to get their head straight a little
00:25:26
bit. Do their business, you know what I mean? And again, maybe affect the tariff conversation more
00:25:31
so than just kind of some of the narratives in and around the new administration.
00:25:34
There's a lot more fascinated to come. Here's what's coming up next.
00:25:37
Hitting the deck shares of Ag and Hoke Apparent Deckers coming untied. Despite a beat and race,
00:25:46
why investors are running away from this running shoe maker? Next, plus a new wrinkle in the obesity
00:25:53
trade. The numbers behind why so many patients ditch GLP1 drugs and the data that could tip the
00:26:00
scales. You're watching Fast Money, live from the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square. We're back
00:26:06
right after this.
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00:27:08
Welcome back to Fast 20 at Buzz Hale on Decker's, the name behind Ugg Boots and Hocus sneakers.
00:27:20
Shares plunging 20% after the company gave a disappointing sales outlook for the
00:27:24
current quarter, raising guidance by less than it beat the stock close at a record high yesterday,
00:27:29
but today saw its worst drop since 2012, considering that Hocus, the growth is slowing there. It had
00:27:35
been so hot, it was seen taking share from Nike, and everybody in the world are risk wearing
00:27:40
Hocus and Ongs. And Ongs, and look, at some point you are a victim of your own success, and I just
00:27:47
think that that's really, look, if anything, what they've guided would mean, cops would be negative
00:27:52
for the first time since 2019. I mean, it's a really, really tough comp. It was an incredibly strong
00:27:57
holiday season to be clear, and I think there's a lot of analysts on the street right now that say,
00:28:00
this is weakness to buy, that the guide was overly conservative, so that's really the dilemma here.
00:28:07
Remember, you know, Alulu, when it went through that period, where again, it was too good to be true,
00:28:11
and in fact, the multiple wasn't that awful, but it wasn't, you know, necessary a sure thing on
00:28:17
growing at the same rate, and I think that's the issue here. Yeah, UBS said it's a buying opportunity
00:28:21
to the chart, say that Carter. Well, so it's always that question, and there's two types of
00:28:25
weakness, in principle, weakness to the advantage of, and weakness to stay away from, right? So,
00:28:29
it just sounds so simple. Not so simple, but there are two points here.
00:28:34
No, right. I mean, you think about it, and so there are two types of discounts, and I would just
00:28:38
put it in this context, if beautiful blazers or casual sweaters or all types, and that is a beautiful
00:28:44
blazer by the way. But not mine, and then they put it on for 700 instead of a thousand, nothing's
00:28:48
changed about the blazer sweater, that's a discount, that's weakness you want to take advantage of,
00:28:52
that's a deal, but discount sushi, that's called rotten fish, right? So you don't. Wow,
00:28:58
well, so here, what's what we're dealing with, is there something wrong with this, is this a
00:29:02
discount to take advantage of, or is it weakness to stay away from? In principle,
00:29:06
well, you see your blazer court, you don't want to buy after a first day drop in gap. When volume is
00:29:13
eightfold, tenfold, not good technique. All right, so there's a blazer on sale, or there's a rotten
00:29:17
fish court. I really like the analogy, this Carter, I really don't know. You should think.
00:29:21
You know, I think when it comes to a company like this, like they have always been pitted against
00:29:25
Nike to your point, because they're taking a lot of share, but I do think you get this fragmented
00:29:29
space, right? Like, as a leader was the space during COVID, and now there's people, you know, we're not
00:29:34
wearing a teaser as much, but also there's just so many more options, and I wonder just how much of
00:29:37
that you're seeing reflected in the demand story. So, yeah, I don't know if I would jump in with two
00:29:41
feet on this one, but I don't know if it's rotten sushi either, I think it's probably somewhere between.
00:29:46
Doesn't have to be right, but the question is, obviously, as a matter of technique, all kind of
00:29:50
analogous jokes aside, it's usually better to let the dust settle. Yeah, really quick, I just think that
00:29:55
when you see a move like that from an all-time high, you take out two months of performance in one gap,
00:30:00
it just speaks to a level of complacency, and so, again, I think that a bunch of names that were
00:30:05
growth stocks are starting to see deceleration, I think that's something we see in the mid-year.
00:30:09
Coming up, ditching the drugs. Why so many GLP-1 users quit? And what the numbers quit mean for names like
00:30:15
Eli Lilly and Nobo Nordisk right after this? Mr. Moment of Fast catches any time on the go.
00:30:24
Follow the Fast Money Podcast. We're back right after this.
00:30:28
Welcome back to Fast Money. As people scramble to get their hands on GLP-1 drugs,
00:30:41
the first of its kind study is examining reasons why patients discontinue or reinitiate obesity drug
00:30:46
treatment. Research is finding that patients without type 2 diabetes are more likely to discontinue
00:30:51
treatment, while other factors like income and drug side effects are also playing major roles.
00:30:56
Leads study author Trisha Rodriguez joins us now. She's a senior flight research scientist
00:31:00
at Triveda. Trisha, great to have you with us. This is a fascinating study, particularly as
00:31:05
companies are looking at ways to, I guess, keep people taking these drugs. What was interesting to me was,
00:31:13
you know, I think that there is an assumption in the marketplace somewhat that if people saw a great
00:31:17
weight loss, they were very successful on these drugs, that they might stop and try and just
00:31:22
keep it off on their own, but that's not what you found. Those people are more likely to stay.
00:31:26
Thanks so much for having me. That's exactly right, Melissa. We found that weight loss was
00:31:32
associated with a lower likelihood of discontinuation, so as patients lost more weight, they were less likely
00:31:38
to stop the drug. And in terms of, I mean, everything has a choice right in life, so also income has
00:31:45
something to do with that and the cost. What did you find? Yes, so we found significant relationships
00:31:52
with income, particularly for patients with type 2 diabetes. And this was really interesting,
00:31:57
because what we saw is that as income bracket increased, the likelihood of stopping progressively
00:32:03
decreased. And then the flip side of the coin, of course, is cost. And on the cost side, we see that
00:32:10
this much higher rate of discontinuation for patients that don't have type 2 diabetes.
00:32:14
We know those patients face a much higher burden of cost because insurance is a lot more challenging
00:32:21
for those patients. And so both from the income and the cost perspective, those seem to be playing a
00:32:28
really important role in discontinuation. And in terms of, I mean, just going back to the
00:32:33
greater the weight loss, what were you, I mean, it actually, you sort of sliced into very fine
00:32:38
tranches in terms of how much weight loss is associated with a likelihood of discontinuation,
00:32:43
which I thought was really fascinating. Yeah, so we looked at the sort of time varying weight loss.
00:32:49
And so each 1% weight loss was associated with about a 3% reduction in actually stopping the medication.
00:32:56
And what is sort of the takeaway of the study overall in terms of, you know, if you're,
00:33:03
if you're Eli Lilly or Novo Nordisk and you're taking a look at this data and you're thinking,
00:33:06
how do I get patients to stay with the drug? What are some of the high level findings that you have
00:33:12
in terms of the patients who are more likely to stay on the drugs? Are patients who are what?
00:33:18
Right. It's a great question. So the patients who are more likely to stay on the drugs are of
00:33:22
course patients that don't experience moderate to adverse, moderate to severe adverse events.
00:33:28
They're also likely to be experiencing a benefit. But I think the really critical piece here
00:33:34
is that there is a gap in access. And so the highest income patients are able to stay on this
00:33:40
drug while lower income patients are less likely to stay on this drug. And so I think that's a
00:33:45
really key takeaway of this fine day of this study is sort of how can we enable greater access
00:33:51
for a greater range of patients? All right. Trisha, great to speak with you. Thank you for sharing
00:33:55
the results of this study. Really interesting. Thank you so much. Trisha Rodriguez of Truveta.
00:34:00
And you know, that issue of access and you wonder how much of it will be opened up as more
00:34:06
indications are approved by the FDA for taking these drugs. And then also as there are different form
00:34:11
factors, pills theoretically should be cheaper to manufacture, should be cheaper to buy. And will
00:34:16
that open up the audience? Well, right. The uncertainty about just what the competition looks like.
00:34:20
And then with the supply demand kind of picture kind of getting a bit more in line. I mean,
00:34:25
the stocks tell you everything you need to know, Lily and Novo. And you know, they're not too
00:34:29
different than we talked about this last year, the mega trend of gender of AI and GLP ones. And
00:34:34
look at the way Novo and Lily have traded specifically Novo over the last, I don't know, six to nine
00:34:39
months when it topped out. And those looked a lot like some of these generative AI stocks are
00:34:43
specifically like Nvidia. So I look at a Novo Nordisk, if you tell me that you're not going to have any
00:34:48
major competitors in the next year. So trading at about 22 times this year is expected to range
00:34:53
throughout the 22%. I know they've already guided down. Maybe they've de-risked in the near term. But
00:34:58
maybe that one looks more interesting. But I think they're both really tough right here. Yeah, I mean,
00:35:03
just a dance point. Think about how long it's been since they've made the simple thing of a 52
00:35:07
week high, right? So Novo peaked at the last week of June, Lily in the second week of July. So
00:35:13
you have the sort of one, two set up of great proceeding out performance. And then now half of
00:35:19
year and more of honor performance. That's usually, it looks like this, right? Yeah, not great.
00:35:25
And then there's also the issue that we saw with Eli Lilly's past earnings releases when they
00:35:29
were talking about inventory and how lumpy that is and how analysts are sort of trying to figure out
00:35:34
how that is that it can be so lumped, but you can't figure out what the inventory is when you have a
00:35:39
population of patients who are taking these drugs. There was an analysis by Everk or ISI's Umar
00:35:44
Rafat and he was saying that he believes that the seasonality also plays a factor that they're
00:35:48
just learning so much about how these drugs are taken and how long patients stay with it.
00:35:53
It sort of gives you an idea that maybe things are not as clear as it's a huge market.
00:35:59
It's a huge demand for the drugs and they're expensive and it's a buy, you know? So
00:36:04
I get the lumpiness and I get the fact that the euphoria around GLP is something that, you know,
00:36:08
a lot of people, we had the ability at least to make comparisons to semiconductors. But the reality is
00:36:14
that Lilly's compound annual growth rate, at least the analyst community, says it's going to be north
00:36:18
of 30% for the next five years. So is that priced in? Especially when you look at the margin profile
00:36:24
of the company, which seems to be getting better. So some of the dynamics around the oral
00:36:28
and some of the releases on the different phases here, I mean, I think there's going to be catalyst
00:36:32
even within GLP, but people forget about where Lilly is in other product classes. So I think this is
00:36:37
weak this year buying. I can't argue with what Carter's saying. I mean, and Novo, I mean, that's,
00:36:42
that's been a, that's been a stock that's hurt people who jumped in that thing in a late in the game.
00:36:46
Yeah, a buy on Lilly for you or no? Yeah, I think this is something you want to take advantage of,
00:36:50
mainly because of the supply and demand constraints, right? I mean, this is an industry that has not
00:36:55
been able to get the supply out there to the point that you have these compounded drugs in order
00:36:58
to compete and those are starting to get taken off. Now the supply is there. I mean, the demand is not
00:37:03
the question here. I think the question is, are investors going to wrap their head around that?
00:37:06
And clearly, you're seeing some of that optimism was priced in. It's getting taken off, but I think
00:37:09
over the long run, I think this is something you absolutely want to have to be said.
00:37:12
Coming up the Nasdaq 100 is celebrating its 40th birthday. The index is risen by more than 17,000
00:37:19
percent since its inception. Well, digging in on the biggest changes in that time and where the
00:37:23
trends are going next. But first points for a pop, the Trump master lays out a handful of names he
00:37:28
thinks are gearing up for a breakout. That is next. We're fast money right after this.
00:37:32
Welcome back to fast money from an info tech stock to a cyber security company that relies
00:37:45
on artificial intelligence. The Trump master sees patterns that suggest these stocks maybe
00:37:49
on the cusp of a breakout. Carter, what are you looking at? Sure. So I thought we would as an
00:37:54
exercise look at some lagers, right? Names that have not made 52 archives have not broken out of
00:37:59
their been range bound. And the thinking is that these are catch-up trades. So rather than chasing
00:38:04
some of the steepest extended names, let's run through them four charts. The first is Accenture.
00:38:09
Of course, they're an IT consulting. And as annotated here, it is toying with the prospect of moving
00:38:15
above the former high. And that's my bad hands, the green arrow. That parts objective, of course,
00:38:20
someone else might draw a red arrow. But anyway, on to the next. And so what you see here is Union
00:38:26
Pacific. It's obviously one of the biggest rails. And it, too, has the same circumstance.
00:38:31
It has not broken out. And the betting is that it will lagging. If the market's making new high and
00:38:39
your sideways for six, eight months, you're not a performer. That's an opportunity or a problem,
00:38:43
I think it's an opportunity. The third of the four, again, these are all very large cap,
00:38:48
100 billion plus is metronux. It's devices. It's healthcare. And it, too, has not made a 52-week high
00:38:55
as the market recently did. Good relative strength this week. Play for the breakout. And then finally,
00:39:01
CrowdStrike, also a smaller name, but still 98 billion. And the presumption is, because the pattern
00:39:07
is the same, that it, too, is going to break out. So we play the cards as dealt. Do all stocks that
00:39:11
are setting up to breakout break out? No, but that is the bet. Which do you like, Dan? If any? CrowdStrike
00:39:17
is interesting. Remember last summer, when the thing got cut in half and Womfel swooped,
00:39:21
they had that, obviously, that data issue. To me, I just think, listen, the S&P, it looks fine here.
00:39:26
It's back up towards those high. We had that little shake out here. Earning season seems like,
00:39:30
you know, it's been okay for the most part. It got off to a great start with banks and the like here.
00:39:34
I just think at some point, the S&P is likely to take a little bit of a breather here, maybe down
00:39:39
five to seven percent or so. So I don't love, you know, a lot of these stocks have come a long way,
00:39:43
despite the fact that they've been lagged. So I'm just not buying breakouts right here.
00:39:48
U&P. I mean, we just got numbers out of them. We, we are hearing about margin improvement,
00:39:53
operational efficiency. You know, there's all kinds of questions about what tariffs might mean
00:39:56
if you're a rail. But I think this is one where the valuation and the way they're running the business
00:40:01
gives you a reason to say, I can hang in there until this one does break out of that range. Carter
00:40:05
says, we might be on the verge of. How about you, Quart? Rather than picking one, I'm actually,
00:40:10
I'm going to take Carter's advice. I think what you want to say is probably not all of these are
00:40:12
going to break out, but I think this is why you do want to take advantage of the stocks that are
00:40:16
out of favor right now, especially, you know, we've been saying this a lot to clients, but
00:40:20
you are likely overexposed to tech. You want it to start to look to take some profits,
00:40:24
take advantage of some of these dips. So don't try to pick one of them, get diversified. I think
00:40:28
that, you know, a lot of these are really great names that Carter picks out here.
00:40:30
Coming up, forner and wham. We're talking about building our charts. In Beverly Hills,
00:40:36
Collins, that was blowing out the box office. We're taking it back to 1985 in the debut of the Nasdaq
00:40:43
100. Next, more fast money and two. Welcome back to fast money. Today marks the 40th anniversary of
00:40:58
the Nasdaq 100. The index attracts some of the largest non-financial names in the Nasdaq composite.
00:41:03
At its inception, it's market kept total $58 billion today. It is worth over $27 trillion,
00:41:11
only six of the original components remain in the index. Apple, micron, Intel, KLA corp,
00:41:17
PACR, and Costco. Today, Apple alone is worth about 60 Nasdaq 100s from 1985. We're joined now by
00:41:24
Brian Hartigan. Invest goes global head of ETFs and index investment. Invest go manages the QQQ,
00:41:30
the fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100. Brian, great to have you with us. Great, thanks for having me.
00:41:35
And we were just talking about how it's changed so much in the 40 year period and the most remarkable
00:41:40
change, not just the size, is a concentration, right, these days. Yeah, it's really evolved since
00:41:46
40 years ago. The index launched 25 years ago, QQQ launched. Really, as I say, one of the leaders of
00:41:52
the ETF industry, but you've seen that concentration evolve over time. But what's been true is the index has
00:41:59
always captured the secular themes, be a technology innovation. We talk about the beginning of the
00:42:05
Internet days into PC computing, into tablets and smartphones on to social media and into AI and
00:42:12
the like. So the index has always been able to capture the leaders of that. But this year,
00:42:17
you're certainly seeing much more concentration in the top holdings and that's been a big story
00:42:21
around the markets this year. Hey, Brian, yeah, congratulations because ubiquity sometimes is
00:42:27
a negative. You've achieved ubiquity. I mean, the associative of the Q's to the markets is as we
00:42:32
were saying, like Kleenex to facial tissue. So good for you. And I guess the RSP is outperformed this year.
00:42:39
And so after years of, you know, I was probably saying one year ago, I don't think six stocks are
00:42:44
going to be 30% of the S&P or 36% of the NASDAQ. So just give us your thoughts on the flows there.
00:42:51
And I'm curious now just to layer in the institutional versus retail because institutions
00:42:55
no longer an embarrassing thing. As a hedge fund guy to say, I'm on an ETFs. That's right. And
00:42:59
especially these ETFs, which give you a lot of balance. Right. Well, we talk about Q's. Q's is one
00:43:03
of the most liquid vehicles in the world. RSP is actually taken on the same institutional liquidity.
00:43:09
You know, it's, it's, it's fractions of the S&P and it's, it's multiples of what it used to be
00:43:13
in terms of the liquidity. So it does bring in institutional investors to do exactly what it does
00:43:19
and diversify from that concentration risk. So equal weight, the 500, you're taking away the
00:43:24
mag seven and some of that concentration and you're able to really, you know, surgically insert kind
00:43:30
of that allocation, whether it be short-term, long-term, or for your overall portfolio diversification.
00:43:36
So we're seeing the institutional adoption and again, that, that much more close hands-on surgical
00:43:43
precision that investors are looking for. Brian, give the viewer a sense. Like two years ago,
00:43:48
in video, it was a $300 billion market cap company. Now it's a $3 trillion market cap company.
00:43:52
How do you guys, you know, kind of rebalance these sorts of ETFs so you don't get too
00:43:57
lopsided towards some different, some, some, a few different names? Sure. Yeah. The NVIDIA stories
00:44:02
is an amazing growth story and the index captures that, right? Whether it's, we have index
00:44:07
evolutions from the mid cap, the next 100 into the, the ultimate NASDAQ 100 and those rules really
00:44:14
create some of the, the ceilings, right? For diversification rules, minimizing some of the 5%
00:44:21
allocations that you have. So the indexing really takes the, the rebalancing, the management kind of
00:44:26
keeps buying some of those winners and gets rid of the losers very naturally through the index process.
00:44:32
Do you guys have like cake in the office? Like what do you do for 40? It's... 40, you know, I'd love
00:44:37
to celebrate a 40 again. So this was great. I really enjoyed it. We cut cakes and we're out on the screen.
00:44:43
It was great. Thank you, Brian. Thank you so much. Brian Hardigan, I'm in Vesca. Up next, final trades.
00:44:48
Thank you. I would have done it again. Final trade time. We were at a fascinating set. Carter pulled up.
00:45:03
Walmart and Costco beat the NASDAQ over the past 40 years. Incredible. Amazing. Okay. Final trade time,
00:45:10
Tim. Carter is full of those by the way and he, fortunately, we get him a lot of, all the time on
00:45:14
the show. GDX is probably another one. I bet he's done this with Dolden in the S&P and it's certainly been
00:45:19
a period where gold's had a great run, making fresh new all-time eyes. GDX, to me, has been underperforming that.
00:45:24
Go buy that. Courtney, you know, we started the show talking about this broadening happening and
00:45:29
in light of investment being here. I do think looking at the RSP, which is the equal weight S&P 500 is
00:45:33
absolutely worth taking a look at here. Dan, Nathan. I agree with that, especially when you see some of
00:45:37
these big names kind of reverse a little bit. I thought Apple's price section today was really bad.
00:45:42
I expect maybe the Meta, even though it had a good quarter to come back into a little bit.
00:45:46
Carter, brats, some worth of worth of charge. I've got to go with one of those
00:45:49
singled out earlier today. So, Accenture, obviously, someone say a low beta boring kind of name,
00:45:55
but I think you're playing for it right now. All right, thank you for watching Fast Money.
00:45:58
Have a terrific weekend. Don't go anywhere. Mad money, which Jim Kramer starts right now.
00:46:08
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