On Taiwan – strategic ambiguity, operational clarity?
Description
Beijing seems to have an insatiable appetite for increasing the scale and pace of military operations around Taiwan: from embargo operations to large scale, set piece amphibious exercises, busting median line airspace agreements and live missile firings. As Ralph Cossa, president emeritus of Pacific Forum, describes it, “Xi Jinping seems to be tactically clever but strategically foolish”. The US, by comparison, continues a doctrine of strategic ambiguity over American policy. If more operational clarity is required to effectively deter China and the PLA, it would also add to the dilemma facing Beijing as it contemplates timelines for further action. In Taipei meanwhile, the reality of making the country into a ‘poisoned shrimp’ (the Asian equivalent of a porcupine strategy) is already in action on the ground.
Not sure Taiwan is even where the emphasis should be placed. You don't hear talk of sanctions on china too often (Lizz Truss, ballroom dinner) and I suspect that is to the extent that we are 'risked'. (Japanese rare arths, Australian coal, 'western pharmaceuticals'?...) Emphasis instead should be on 'de-risking' in that regard. You can look at the war in Ukraine from that perspective too....