Options Jive - November 3, 2025 - Weekly Market Summary: NVIDIA Hits $5 Trillion While Earnings Season Reaches 50-50 Split
Update: 2025-11-03
Description
Hosts Tony and Jamal welcomed researcher Kai to discuss a week where Fed policy overshadowed market action, with the 25bp rate cut accompanied by hawkish commentary that sent December cut expectations plummeting from 90% to 67% (now 69-70%). Kai noted the Fed Watch tool has been highly accurate historically when above 65%, suggesting December cut remains likely but not guaranteed. The government shutdown entered its sixth week (31 calendar days) approaching the 2018-2019 record of 34 days, with less than 25% probability of resolution this week and 50% expecting it to extend past November 16th. Global markets rallied with all nine major indices up, though US gains were modest compared to Asian markets led by Japan and Hong Kong (both up 30%+). The earnings picture showed last week's major names delivering more red than green among liquid stocks, with the season now perfectly balanced at 50% winners/losers and zero average returns across 1,200+ companies. Upcoming week features busy slate including Palantir and HIMS today, Uber/Shopify/Spotify tomorrow, and AMD Tuesday as the standout.
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