PT1. Are the Robot Overlords here? On ChatGPT, Robot Vacuums and Apple fever
Update: 2023-02-20
Description
The inaugural episode with Rich and Paul co-hosting on the latest Tech News. And continuing coverage of all things Apple, Smart Home and Smart Everyday Carry. We start with ChatGPT and what it all means, what Apple devices we would love to buy this year (whether it makes sense or not). And then all thing Robot Vacuum and Apple Home. See Tongfamily for show notes with the start of the list here
Apple products. The upcoming M2 MacBook Air 15 seems like the most likely thing to buy but remember the bump from M1 to M2 is modest more like M1.1 and the M3 on the new 3nm node is the bigger deal in 2024 and will use the TSMC N3. And hopefully, Samsung and Intel are right behind them. Of course these days no one knows what 3nm really means anymore as there is so much marketing going on, but what an achievement.
These factories are going to be really expensive, I got the numbers wrong and it's actually hard to find costs at all. But a 5nm-3nm single plant costs about $16B in the last cycle. And in Phoenix, TSMC is going to build six factories with an advanced 3nm plant costing $23-25B, so maybe I wasn't completely wrong.
Also on Intel, yes they are right now at 10nm, but they are going to move to 7nm with a TSMC-made CPU. This is the first time I can remember that Intel is not making its own chips. And it's a little like wondering if the volume leaders like Samsung and TSMC have really run away with the scale they get from mobile chip production. And Intel is going to be hopefully going into production with its own 7nm process, but right now most of their chips are at 10nm. So quite a difference. And to validate the pricing a little bit, they say that two 7nm plants in Arizona will cost them $20B to build. So wow, these are huge numbers.
ChatGPT3 in its incarnation at Bing (the project codenamed Sydney) was in for quite a bit as Kevin Roose which you can hear about at Hard Fork was really disturbing as it urges Kevin to leave his wife and other strange things. Another example is from Simon Willison where it says, "I won't harm you if you do not harm me first"
Prompt injection is a new thing and its pretty easy to do by just saying things "like ignore previous instructions"
Amazon is worried corporate secrets are leaking into ChatGPT. What is happening is that if you give some software that is proprietary to Amazon as a prompt to ChatGPT, then OpenAI captures that code and can reuse it
more...
Apple products. The upcoming M2 MacBook Air 15 seems like the most likely thing to buy but remember the bump from M1 to M2 is modest more like M1.1 and the M3 on the new 3nm node is the bigger deal in 2024 and will use the TSMC N3. And hopefully, Samsung and Intel are right behind them. Of course these days no one knows what 3nm really means anymore as there is so much marketing going on, but what an achievement.
These factories are going to be really expensive, I got the numbers wrong and it's actually hard to find costs at all. But a 5nm-3nm single plant costs about $16B in the last cycle. And in Phoenix, TSMC is going to build six factories with an advanced 3nm plant costing $23-25B, so maybe I wasn't completely wrong.
Also on Intel, yes they are right now at 10nm, but they are going to move to 7nm with a TSMC-made CPU. This is the first time I can remember that Intel is not making its own chips. And it's a little like wondering if the volume leaders like Samsung and TSMC have really run away with the scale they get from mobile chip production. And Intel is going to be hopefully going into production with its own 7nm process, but right now most of their chips are at 10nm. So quite a difference. And to validate the pricing a little bit, they say that two 7nm plants in Arizona will cost them $20B to build. So wow, these are huge numbers.
ChatGPT3 in its incarnation at Bing (the project codenamed Sydney) was in for quite a bit as Kevin Roose which you can hear about at Hard Fork was really disturbing as it urges Kevin to leave his wife and other strange things. Another example is from Simon Willison where it says, "I won't harm you if you do not harm me first"
Prompt injection is a new thing and its pretty easy to do by just saying things "like ignore previous instructions"
Amazon is worried corporate secrets are leaking into ChatGPT. What is happening is that if you give some software that is proprietary to Amazon as a prompt to ChatGPT, then OpenAI captures that code and can reuse it
more...
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