Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO & Co-Founder of Gavekal, returns to Personable as a two-time guest. From graduating Duke University with a BA in Economics, History & Chinese, to studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis brings a unique global perspective. He’s advised institutions, funds, and governments for decades - and in this episode, he dissects markets, AI, energy, and the U.S.-China dynamic with refreshing clarity.

With experience spanning macro research, portfolio strategy, and global policy insights, Louis has built Gavekal into one of the world’s most respected independent research firms. Known for sharp takes on U.S.-China relations, the future of AI, and structural shifts in energy, Louis shares why the U.S. still holds “pocket aces,” why investors should be watching China-India-Russia integration, and why we may be entering a 20-year bond bear market. In this episode, he lays out the risks, opportunities, and new frameworks for investors navigating 2025 and beyond.

In this episode, Louis-Vincent Gave discusses:
◽️ The evolving U.S.-China relationship, tariffs, and rare earths
◽️ AI: bubble or paradigm shift? U.S. closed vs. China’s open models
◽️ Energy economics: why coal may fuel America’s AI race
◽️ The Magnificent Seven, Nvidia, and overvaluation risks
◽️ Global macro trends: China-India-Russia integration vs. U.S. dominance

00:00 Intro
00:32 Meeting Louis-Vincent Gave: Gavekal & background
02:11 U.S.-China relations since 2018 semiconductor embargo
05:13 U.S. advantages vs. China’s rapid rise
09:19 Global trade trends: shifting toward the Global South
13:40 Western media narratives: “imploding or taking over” China
18:00 TikTok deal, Taiwan, tariffs & negotiations
21:53 AI: bubbles, Nvidia, DeepSeek & open vs. closed models
29:10 Employment disruption & the future of work
38:35 Energy: U.S. vs. China, renewables, coal & AI power needs
46:17 Inflation, social media, data & retail markets
49:28 Investment strategies: AI bets vs. global opportunities
53:10 Nvidia’s 75% corrections & systemic risk
56:18 Macro trends: U.S. vs. China-India-Russia integration
1:01:12 Gold, crypto & energy as diversification tools
1:09:59 Public vs. private markets for investors
1:13:20 Social media, retail investing & “gamifying” markets
1:16:36 Bonds, pensions & a 20-year bear market
1:18:11 Outro

📌 Resources
Louis-Vincent Gave:
◽️ X: https://x.com/gave_vincent
◽️ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/louis-vincent-gave-6260241 
◽️ Gavekal: https://research.gavekal.com/

Harvey Bracken-Smith:
◽️ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/harveybracken-smith
◽️ Instagram: instagram.com/harveybsmith
◽️ X (Twitter): x.com/harveybsmith_

Personable Podcast:
◽️ Instagram: instagram.com/personable.podcast
◽️ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/personablepodcast
◽️ TikTok: tiktok.com/@personableclips
◽️ Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/7JOTYDER6m2FDrlhop4api
◽️ Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/personable/id1671640111

Additional:
◽️ The Draft (Sign up): thedraft.io
◽️ Fundraising: justgiving.com/crowdfunding/LouLouRacefoiundation?utm_term=PvByaxmdn

Personable is a podcast dedicated to helping listeners become the best they can be by learning from the world’s best in their respective fields. This mission is inspired by my mother, Louise, who encouraged me to become the best version of myself before she passed away from cancer in 2023.

This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Investing involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Support the show