In this episode, we sit down with James Check to tackle common misconceptions in bitcoin, from misunderstood on-chain metrics to the real impact of long-term holders. We break down key market indicators, discuss risks of audience capture, and explore whether bitcoin is set for slow, steady growth or another 80% drop. We also dive into the relevance of entity-adjusted metrics, the potential impact of ETFs, and how Checkmate optimizes bitcoin allocation strategies. Looking ahead, we speculate on bitcoin’s role in future portfolios, touch on large-scale gold buying, and even consider whether aliens might have their own version of bitcoin.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction

01:40 What is one thing you think most people are wrong about?

08:14 Misinterpreted on-chain metrics and long-term holders

13:00 Key metrics to watch for market tops

19:10 Protecting against audience capture in bitcoin narratives

22:44 Slow grind up vs fast exponential growth?

25:48 Will bitcoin fall another 80% at some point?

29:25 Bitcoin was not a ZIRP phenomenon

30:10 Optimizing DCA and portfolio allocations through cycles

35:00 How accurate are “entity-adjusted” on-chain metrics?

41:10 Do ETFs destroy the potential usefulness of on-chain analytics?

46:35 Decades from now, how much bitcoin is in a typical portfolio?

50:50 Who is buying gold in size now?

56:50 Do aliens exist and did they discover their own bitcoin?

1:02:50 Closing thoughts

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