Presented by American Airlines

In part one, Gordon Smith and Jay Shabat take a closer look at Qantas and ask how major new projects could change its business. In part two, we turn our attention to Colombian national carrier Avianca and put its latest earnings in context.

Episode Summary:

Qantas performance: Qantas reported a 9% operating margin for the first half of 2023, stronger than 2019 levels. Domestic demand remains robust due to the vast distances in Australia and limited rail/road alternatives.

Domestic market competition: Qantas faces limited competition domestically, with Rex Airlines scaling back and Bonza collapsing. Koala Airlines is a potential new competitor, but Qantas largely dominates through its mainline, Jetstar, and Virgin Australia.

Qantas business breakdown: Qantas operates three core segments: domestic, international, and Jetstar (low-cost, domestic, and international). Their loyalty program is highly profitable, with a 19% operating margin in the first half of 2023.

International markets: Key markets for Qantas include New Zealand, Singapore/Southeast Asia, Japan, the US, and the UK. Their international operations are profitable but lag behind domestic performance, with a 5% operating margin in early 2023.

Project Sunrise: Qantas plans to launch nonstop flights from Sydney and Melbourne to London and New York by 2026 with Airbus A350-1000s, aiming to boost its international market.

Fleet investment: Qantas is heavily investing in new Airbus aircraft (A220s and A321XLRs) for domestic routes and retiring its older 737s. Boeing's Dreamliners (787-9s) remain important for international operations.

Virgin Australia speculation: There are unconfirmed reports that Qatar Airways may acquire a 20% stake in Virgin Australia, which could complicate oneworld alliance dynamics, as Qantas and Qatar Airways are both members.

Future outlook: Qantas is positioned for growth with strategic fleet upgrades and long-term plans, while maintaining dominance in the Australian market. Further insights will be featured in the Airline Weekly newsletter.

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