What can WWII bombers teach us about diving? The story of Abraham Wald’s counterintuitive armor placement on planes highlights the importance of analyzing what’s not immediately visible—a lesson diving can embrace. Success in diving isn’t just about avoiding accidents but understanding why things go well and whether it’s skill or luck. Reflecting on successes and failures through effective debriefs can enhance learning. Additionally, survivorship bias can skew our perception, as we often focus on thriving divers and ignore those who leave the sport. Incorporating human factors and non-technical skills, like communication and psychological safety, is crucial for safer, more enjoyable diving. Change starts with action—let’s bring these lessons to the forefront of the diving industry.

Original blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/were-you-lucky-or-were-you-good

Links: Abraham Wald: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Wald

Operations Research and Management Science Applied to Marketing: https://www.decisionanalyst.com/whitepapers/bulletholesinbombers/

DeBRIEF model: https://www.thehumandiver.com/debrief

Close Calls: https://stratiskas.com/closecalls/

Under Pressure: https://www.thehumandiver.com/underpressure

Tags:  English, Decision-Making, Gareth Lock, Incident Analysis, Incident Investigation