As Q3 unfolds, we analyze the evolving dynamics shaping the European Guarantees of Origin (GO) market while reviewing our Q2 predictions.This episode is based on our full in-app quarterly report available to Soldera members. You can also listen to this episode your favourite podcast platform here.

Looking Back at Q2 and Assessing Our Predictions

→ Market experienced prolonged decline before dramatic recovery in final weeks 📉→ Prices bottomed at 40 cents before recovering to 80 cents, validating under-supply predictions→ German June disclosure deadline created delayed market activity separate from March patterns 🇩🇪

We Need To Talk About Norway…

→ Q2 Episode correction: Total Norwegian GO consumption actually decreased year-over-year despite record cancellations. → Problematic government behaviour impacting the GO market intensifies 🇳🇴

Critical Supply Dynamics

→ Europe producing 8-9% less renewable energy than last year, creating 50 TWh deficit → Nordic hydro reserves normalizing after record-high levels, hot summer predictions threatening further decline ☀️→ 2024 vintage GOs now in end-of-life phase as traders rotate inventory 🔄

Demand Outlook and Regulatory Shifts

→ CSRD scope reduction from 50,000 to 10,000 companies but targeting largest emitters 📋→ Hydrogen RFNBO requirement relaxation lobbying could unlock hundreds of TWh demand → Corporate sustainability commitments remaining strong despite regulatory changes → Forward curve premiums moderating as regulatory uncertainty impacts long-term pricing 📈

Strategic Market Considerations

→ Forward markets showing 50% premiums for 2026 vintage as utilities hedge exposure 📊→ Record-low oversupply reduction expected to significantly impact market dynamics→ New government auctions emerging while market fragmentation challenges persist 🆕→ Cross-border virtual GO accounts on the horizon at Soldera. Watch this space …

As always, stay connected with our quarterly market outlooks to track the GO landscape. Catch our next outlook in Q4!

#GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Renewables

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