The Sudanese Civil War has now passed its one-and-a-half year mark and shows no signs of slowing. Approximately 20,000 people have died, and the war has created the world’s largest displacement crisis: over 13 million have been forced to flee their homes. Famine has been confirmed in North Darfur, and the rest of Sudan is facing severe food insecurity levels. Multiple severe crimes against humanity have occurred, including ethnic cleansing campaigns and widespread sexual violence against civilians.

In August 2024, a peace initiative led by the United States and co-organised by Switzerland took place in Geneva, resulting in the announcement of the ALPS, or the alluiance for Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan, which has since achieved a little positive action by reopening some humanitarian access routes.

As a result, about 200 trucks managed to get through the Adré crossing into West Darfur, but struggled to reach the whole region. Sudan’s finance minister, Gibril Ibrahim, has called for the crossing’s closure. He accuses the RSF of using humanitarian convoys to bring in weapons. But Sudan’s long and relatively uncontrolled border with Chad is being used to get weapons into Sudanese territory anyway. 

The RSF has controlled most of Khartoum ever since the war erupted in April 2023. On September the 26th, the SAF launched an offensive in attempts to retake the city. In doing so, they conducted summary executions on up to 70 young men between September 26th and October 2nd. The RSF increased its attacks in response, and just last week, the paramilitary group conducted a five-day attack in Al Gezira. Residents were indiscriminately shot at and were subject to sexual violence, while homes, markets, and farms were looted and set alight. According to the Sudanese doctor’s union, at least 124 people were killed and 200 were injured, making it one of civil war's single-deadliest attacks.

Both parties are securing more advanced weapons from international backers. In the past week the U.S. Treasury has sanctioned Mirghani Idris Suleiman, the SAF procurement chief and director of Sudan’s Defense Industries System. The treasury cited Suleiman’s role in securing Iranian drones and brokering a Russian port-for-weapons deal, which has allowed the SAF to intensify its conflict with the RSF. Last month, the Treasury targeted Algoney Hamdan Dagalo Musa, the RSF’s procurement director and Hemedti’s brother, for funneling weapons to the RSF.

Hemedti recently made impassioned speech accusing Egypt of supplying war planes to the army. This is the first time that the RSF has publicly accused Egypt of being militarily involved.

On the 21st of October, the RSF shot down an Ilyushin-76 cargo plane over North Darfur. The aircraft was breaching the international arms embargo on Darfur, which was recently extended to September 2025 by the UN Security Council. The aircraft was operating in support of the SAF. Alongside three Sudanese nationals, two Russians were among the dead on board the aircraft.

Ultimately, no comprehensive plan for a cessation of hostilities has been drawn up, despite a cessation being one of the Geneva peace talk’s objectives in August, and civilians remain hopelessly impacted by continued warfare. 

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation