William Morris LL.D., Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation, reflects on the ongoing war between Israel and Lebanon and its consequences.
Joint Military Exercises in the Red Sea Between Former Regional Rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia: What Does This Mean?

The joint military exercise reflects a deepening of the recent resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It signals that Middle East countries have lost confidence in the US. In April 2024 Iran and Saudi Arabia announced the restoration of diplomatic ties in Beijing. The joint military exercise signals further progress in this recent reconciliation. It also signals diminished regional trust in the credibility of the US – which has consistently failed to back its words with actions – reflecting a regional cooperative effort to strengthen security management in the Red Sea region. In the context of the current crisis in the Middle East, the joint exercise serves as a reminder to the international community that it should be more concerned with the will of the regional countries rather than on that of external major powers. This collaboration could pave the way for further dialogue and de-escalation of regional tensions.

Iran wants to show that it can play a constructive role beyond its traditional alliances with groups like Hezbollah or the Houthis, particularly after Nasrallah’s death, and may be using these drills to show off its naval power to Israel in this interim period before Israel’s counterattack. Also, to show Israel that Iran is a key persuasive voice in the region to be able to conduct joint military exercises with its formal rival. The decision to perform the exercises and show off power is likely heightened by the tense wait for Israel’s counterattack on Iran, which is set to come sometime before the US election day.

The military exercises were also conducted alongside other countries, including Oman and Russia. The Kremlin wants to assert its presence to bolster its geopolitical influence in the region, particularly along the Red Sea (where it wants a port), and most likely to assert itself against US influence in the Middle East. But the exercises also point towards a desire for increased regional security and stability in the Middle East post-October 7, considering the large amounts of military support supplied to Israel by the West.

Support the show

Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation