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Last week we did a check-in on how the answers to the tactical questions for 2025 we posed back in January were faring (here). This week we go through our Big Themes for 2025 which we had also highlighted back in January (here). We look at what’s in and what’s out through the lens of macro frameworks, public policy implications, and finally corporate strategy and energy sub-sector outlooks. We will publish our final summer Super-Spiked next week before taking a 2-week hiatus until after Labor Day.

BIG THEMES FOR 2025

* Energy scenario normalization

* Power surge: This generation’s super-cycle

* Energy sources and technologies

MACRO FRAMEWORK IMPLICATIONS

* Net Zero and “The Energy Transition” are out. Energy policies that will drive GDP growth and meeting energy’s natural hierarchy of needs are in.

* Solving for everyone on Earth someday becoming energy rich is in. Assuming people will choose to stay poor is out.

* OPEC Research is in. Energy macro agencies and oil companies that were driven by “net zero” narratives are out (for now).

What to watch:

* BP Energy Outlook (Sep), IEA WEO (Oct)

* Africa’s significant TAM (total address market): Up to 60 million b/d of desired oil demand versus 5 million b/d today

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

* Energy policy that drives long-term affordability, reliability, and security are in. Policies that start with counting CO2 are out.

* IRA is out. Meeting AI demand is in.

* Some of the above is in. All of the above was never in.

* Regions that are long energy resource should all be in, but some are still out (California) or not sufficiently in (Canada).

What to watch:

* US natural gas midstream infrastructure

* Canada oil and natural gas export infrastructure

* Reliability, affordability reforms in California, Western Europe

CORPORATE IMPLACATIONS

* Companies exposed to power value chain are in. Natural gas is in. Oil value chain is still out.

* Solar + batteries are still in. Wind is out.

* Nuclear is in. “Green” hydrogen is out. Geothermal hoping to be in.

* IPPs are in. SMID oils (E&P, OFS) are out, though SMID OFS diversifying into power are in.

* Companies driving new technology development in regions that are short energy resource are in…

* …Companies that exist to exploit rich-world government subsidies in the name of CO2 accounting are out.

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⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com