Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: Recession or Overheating?
Update: 2025-11-07
Description
Economists eagerly await the Supreme Courts decision on tariffs, as it could drastically alter the U.S. economic landscape. A potential ruling to strike down tariffs might decrease recession risks but increase the likelihood of economic overheating. The labor market presents mixed signals, with job growth weak and unemployment claims low, but layoff announcements on the rise. Residential real estate is softening, but lower mortgage rates are stimulating activity. Capital expenditure intentions have slightly improved, yet overall investment growth remains sluggish. The AI capital spending booms sustainability is uncertain, with concerns about revenue generation. BCA Research predicts that if tariffs are upheld, stock prices and bond yields may drop, but if theyre overturned, bond yields could rise further, potentially leading to a stock market retreat as overheating risks become more apparent.
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