DiscovertheScore Fantasy Football Podcast with Justin BooneTE Breakouts, Busts, & Draft Strategy for 2024
TE Breakouts, Busts, & Draft Strategy for 2024
Update: 2024-08-01
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In this episode, Boone is joined by Andrew Cooper of Fantasy Alarm to discuss how to approach tight ends in this year's fantasy drafts.
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Transcript
00:00:00
[MUSIC]
00:00:13
Welcome everyone to the SCORE Fantasy Football Podcast.
00:00:17
I'm your host Justin Boone, the lead fantasy analyst at the SCORE.
00:00:20
Appreciate you joining us and listening in today.
00:00:23
We're wrapping up our position preview series with tight ends and
00:00:26
one more time for anybody who didn't catch all the preview shows.
00:00:29
We went over running backs with Rich Rebar.
00:00:31
We went over quarterbacks with JJ Zacharyson, receivers with Ryan Heath earlier this week.
00:00:36
And now we have the tight end whisperer himself.
00:00:39
Andrew Cooper of Fantasy Alarm.
00:00:41
He's on Twitter @CoupAFiasco.
00:00:44
You've heard him before on the show.
00:00:46
So Andrew, welcome back, man.
00:00:48
How you doing now that we are right in the heart of training camp here.
00:00:52
And we are officially kicking off the preseason tonight with the Hall of Fame game.
00:00:55
>> Couldn't be more fired up.
00:00:56
>> You know how many bad DFS lineups I've already put in that are going to win nothing.
00:01:01
When Quentin Tigurino or Breven Jordan actually is going to touch on the playoffs.
00:01:07
But I mean, my goodness, I've got a lot of bad lineups ready to go.
00:01:12
But I'm excited for kickoff, man.
00:01:13
I'm fired up.
00:01:14
>> I love it.
00:01:14
And before the show, we were talking about how much time and how much of our lives we dedicate to this stuff.
00:01:20
And it's because we love it so much.
00:01:22
And you know, when you see us during the preseason spent in this much time, I do takeaways.
00:01:27
I watch all the preseason games and people in my life are asking me, why are you watching the preseason.
00:01:33
It's like fourth string guys.
00:01:34
And I'm like, yeah, you wait until November and December when some of these fourth stringers are on the team.
00:01:38
And they're actually meaningful for fantasy.
00:01:40
And that's when we'll be getting the wins from all of that work that we're putting in in August.
00:01:45
But let's get rolling here.
00:01:46
So I want to pick your brain.
00:01:47
I want to see where you are with this stuff.
00:01:49
Feel free to mention specific players or groupings, but overall, what's your general strategy for draft and tight ends this year?
00:01:56
>> Yeah, so the timing is perfect because I just, within the last week or so, finished the last article as part of the ultimate tight end guide.
00:02:03
You can get that in the fantasy alarm draft guide now.
00:02:05
It's like 20,000 words.
00:02:07
It was like 30.
00:02:09
I cut it down as Mark Twain says, you know, if I had more time, I would have written you a shorter letter, right?
00:02:14
So I did cut it down.
00:02:16
That's in the draft guide.
00:02:16
But I can give you my general strategy this year.
00:02:19
I'll tell you the number one thing.
00:02:21
I'm not taking the first tight end off the board in most cases.
00:02:24
I think there's enough guys that could be the top tight end that you can get better value later.
00:02:29
Not to mention, isn't it a terrible feeling just when you take the first tight end of the first quarterback?
00:02:34
And then another one doesn't go for like two rounds.
00:02:36
>> Yes.
00:02:36
>> Like it is horrifying.
00:02:38
And I just don't like that feeling.
00:02:40
And I don't like as, you know, Sam Leporta was good last year, and he was great for a rookie.
00:02:45
But if you take all the tight end seasons over the last decade or so, it's ordered by points for game.
00:02:50
His season was like 29, right?
00:02:51
And touchdowns are a big part of it.
00:02:53
So I personally am not going to be the one that takes Leporta.
00:02:57
I don't mind taking any one of the top five guys for sure.
00:03:01
And honestly, six or seven for me, as long as I get a good value.
00:03:05
And if I miss on that, then we're fine because we just fall back on the old Yen and Yang tight end
00:03:10
with some weight-round guys that we like as well.
00:03:12
>> Love it.
00:03:13
>> And yeah, for me, like I agree with you.
00:03:15
I don't necessarily want to take the first tight end off the board.
00:03:19
Unless it's like a case where like the pros versus Joe's draft that I did the other night.
00:03:23
I was picking 12th and I looked at all the previous drafts and
00:03:26
I was like, there is not going to be one of those top tier tight ends left when it gets back around because it's tight end premium.
00:03:33
>> Right, right, right.
00:03:34
>> So I did decide to go with Leporta, the first pick at the 201 in the second round there.
00:03:40
But normally, I'm just trying to find value like you were saying, but I do want one of those guys that are in the top seven.
00:03:47
And I don't include Ingram in that bunch.
00:03:49
So for me, it's Leporta, Kelsey, Andrews, Kincaid, McBride, Pits, and Kittle.
00:03:55
And you can debate the order.
00:03:56
Maybe we'll do that today.
00:03:57
That's fine, but I want to make sure it's best I can that I come away with one of those guys.
00:04:02
Because I see a path to basically any of them ending up as the tight end one overall.
00:04:07
Like you kind of alluded to.
00:04:08
Now, to get them, you normally got to use a pick in the first six rounds or so.
00:04:13
I mean, a couple of times I've seen Kittle fall to like the seventh, but you kind of have to bounce by the sixth round at the latest normally.
00:04:20
And to break it down a little more, it kind of depends on the board.
00:04:23
Like if there's a receiver or running back, you know, in the fourth round or fifth round that I like.
00:04:29
I'll still probably wait and roll the dice and hope that I can get one of the last guys in that tier in the sixth round.
00:04:35
But I'm not opposed to drafting any of those top seven.
00:04:38
And in the times where I do get sniped and they don't come back around to me.
00:04:43
Then I'm going and I'm looking for one of those, you know, normally cheaper kind of low end tight end one guys like in
00:04:49
Joku or Ferguson or, you know, Bowers being the unknown upside guy, a fire mooth and the potential volume he could have this year.
00:04:58
And then that's kind of the next cutoff for me like I want to have one of those guys if I miss out on the top group.
00:05:03
Because after them, it gets pretty speculative.
00:05:06
And I know we're going to talk about some deeper options, some deep sleepers.
00:05:09
We were joking about some of the names before the show.
00:05:11
But after them, it is pretty speculative about who could sneak into that top 12.
00:05:16
And in my mind, we're just, you know, we're talking more about long shots at that point, right?
00:05:21
Once you get outside of the top 12 top 13 tight ends, it's you kind of just throwing those Hail Mary's.
00:05:27
Yeah, no question. And until your point on Kittle versus Engram, to me, that boils down to a format and be what type of player you are and your own, your own tolerance.
00:05:39
It's funny that I've talked to a couple of people like Dave Quiggy, where like he doesn't really care about down weeks, even outside of Bestball.
00:05:46
Like he's just looking for guys that can win an individual week, which is a guy like George Kittle, right?
00:05:50
So we know that he can score three touchdowns anytime.
00:05:53
We know that he can break off monster plays. I went through Justin, I looked at the last seven years, all the 40 plus yard plays by tight ends.
00:06:02
Kittle has 16 Travis Kelsey has 14. Nobody else has more than seven.
00:06:07
Incredible, right? There's only a couple guys. And I'll tell you, anybody that ran a 4 or 8 or slower in the combine, none of those guys have more than one.
00:06:16
None of those guys have multiple. It really does bow down to speed breaking off this big place.
00:06:20
The thing about Kittle though is that in between all that, you've got all these games where the other weapons on the team are doing things in games where everyone was healthy, right?
00:06:29
And when I say everyone, I just mean IUK, Debo, CMC and Kittle, in those games, Kittle only had three games with three or more catches.
00:06:39
That's out of 19 games, including the playoffs. So you got to take the good with the bad, whereas with Engram, if you're in like a full PPR and you just want a floor guy, that's what you're going to get, but we know what that is.
00:06:49
You know, it's a lot of screens. He led the league and screens. He has never really had a lot of red zone prowess. I know it's fluky, but he doesn't really win in that area.
00:06:57
He's six three. So it kind of kind of boils down to who you're looking for there. So for me, maybe in full PPR, Engram and a sort of half or standard, I would go, Kittle.
00:07:06
I have some thoughts on Engram. I want to save it though, because I don't want to totally spoil one of the sections that we have coming up here.
00:07:11
So I'll get back to him in a second. But I mean, we talked about a ton of names there off the top. Let's take a little deeper now. And let's start with the thing that everybody wants to know, who's that breakout tight end, who's going to just make the big leap in 2024? Who do you want to place the chip on to have that breakout?
00:07:28
Now, are we talking a guy from, you know, the mid actual draft that could be the tight end one overall? Are we talking about maybe a guy out of the top 12? What do you want here?
00:07:38
Because I got all sorts of flavors of, yeah, you can define it any way you want.
00:07:42
Let's handle in all the episodes. We've had people kind of approach it different ways. Some kind of shave off that top tier, some go a lot deeper. I feel like I tend to go a lot deeper.
00:07:52
But when it comes to these breakouts, my guys that I put on my list that I put in my breakouts column this year, they are kind of more low hanging fruit guys that have a shot to be top five or maybe even better for a couple of them.
00:08:04
All right, well, I'll give you both then a guy like, so a guy like Kyle pits, I think people are they don't, they don't quite understand how ridiculously upside could be for this player. I'm not even talking about the tight end one with his size and skill set now Kirk cousins. There's a possibility that he could have one of if not the best fantasy tight end seasons of all time.
00:08:27
If I had to bet on one tight end this season to break the record for most yards by a tight end, I would put my money on Kyle fits. I mean, his floor isn't great because he's, you know, he hasn't shown it since your one and he's got the knee.
00:08:40
But the upside is there with his size and speed and the fact that as a rookie playing with the ghost of Matt Ryan, he did have a thousand yards right when he was 21 now it's 23.
00:08:50
So I think it's possible that he has a crazy season like that, though he's not as safe as you would like the guys that could come from outside the top 12 to finish top five, which I'll tell you people are like, oh, who cares about, you know, late round tight ends or whatever.
00:09:05
Seven straight years now, just seven straight years a tight end has come from outside the top 17 and 80 p to finish top five last year.
00:09:14
Same report a tight end 18 finished tight end one so they're out there right this year. I'm looking at a guy you already mentioned briefly Pat Fry, right. This is a player and I tell you that this is the first question.
00:09:26
I always ask people when we talk about Fry, I go, have you ever heard anybody say that Pat Fry, Muth isn't good.
00:09:31
Like have you ever heard anyone say Pat Fry, Muth sucks, I have not heard that. No, it's it's been more of a case where the offense had issues and Matt Canada and the coordinator problems that they had and QB problems and all that stuff.
00:09:43
No, I have not heard anyone say that Pat Fry, Muth was a bad player. See, well, that's the start, right. He's got talent. Everyone believes he's talented. Like nobody is like the sky isn't good, right.
00:09:53
It's been the system. It's been the situation, right. A big part of that obviously is you have a guy, the auntie Johnson, who over the last four years averaging nine targets a game, right.
00:10:02
Then you throw George Pickens in the mix and and Kenny pick it a quarterback. I mean, you could take some of the top tight ends and put him in that situation and they're not going to thrive.
00:10:11
It's like Evan Ingram top, you know, he was top five with Eli, Eli Manning. He was terrible with Daniel Jones and now he's been back to back top five with Trevor Lawrence, right.
00:10:19
It's like the situation does matter here. Pat Fry, Muth is now coming into a system that threw 173 targets to the tight ends last year.
00:10:26
Kyle Pitz got 90 of them, which is the same number that George Kittle got last year, right.
00:10:31
The quarterback say what you will about Russell Wilson. He's better than anything they've had since Big Ben, right. His worst season passing the football is better than the best season for Justin Fields or Kenny pick it or Mitch Trebisky or any of those guys, right.
00:10:47
And the system here, when you look at what they do last year, they use Drake London for 75% of the snaps and the next highest wide receiver played 33%.
00:10:56
So yes, maybe the second target on the team after George Pickens could be Roman Wilson, though things haven't been going great for him so far. I think he's actually banged up as of what I recently heard.
00:11:06
Yeah, right. You know, you've got Calvin Austin. I mean, Van Jefferson was on this author Smith offense last year. And he wasn't even the guy that played 33% it was Cathedral Hodge.
00:11:16
You know what I mean? So for me, I look around and I'm like, they're going to move this guy all with formation. It's a scheme that's that's custom fit for the tight end.
00:11:23
I've been fading fire me virtually every year. And then this year, I tell people I'm in and they're like, Oh, I thought we didn't like him. No, we like him. We didn't like the situation.
00:11:32
So Pat Firemuth is one that I'm getting a good amount of so far and I'm hoping that, you know, not too many people are listening and moving them up in the ADP.
00:11:42
The people that listen to this show shout out to a lot of people are reddit who mentioned your name all the time and say it's one of their favorite podcasts shout out to you guys. We'll draft him and everybody else can keep fading him and draft some of these other guys that have no upside.
00:11:55
I appreciate you saying that about the show. And yeah, shout out to everybody on Reddit there. And I totally agree with you about firemuth. We've been bringing them up all off season.
00:12:03
And I think you are part of that because you had an excellent tweet. And sometimes when you just like boil things down and simplify them, it could be simple. It could be obvious.
00:12:13
But when you just write it out and everyone sees it, it just makes it so clear. And you had an excellent tweet that every tight end one in PPR leagues last year was a top two target getter in their offense. Right.
00:12:26
That's what we're chasing. And especially if you're looking for these guys that are outside of the top 12 who could maybe find a way to get up there. That is the easiest cheat code to follow.
00:12:36
Try to find one of these guys that could be a top two target getter in the offense. And I think right now we're hearing it from the beat writers.
00:12:42
And we were speculating about it going back way earlier in the off season that it could be firemuth. And it really looks now like it's going to be so. Yeah, I'm very excited about him. I think he's for sure going to get himself into the low end tight end one ranks. And then we'll see how high he can get based on probably his touchdown total this season.
00:13:00
We know that he can put up a decent touchdown total because he did that believe going back to his rookie year ready put up a pretty good number there. So not not to interrupt Justin, but let me boil you down another stat real quick that really encapsulates it because people, you know, they come back to me and they say, oh, well, that was last year, but that's not every year, the top two target thing.
00:13:18
This, this is a stat that really hits home with a lot of people going back exactly 20 years to 2003. Every tight end that's finished top five in PPR has had either.
00:13:29
90 targets or 10 touchdowns. All right. The last guy that to do it was Randy McMichael. That's how far back we're talking for the dolphins. So for the last 20 years, that's 100 tight ends, right.
00:13:41
94 of those tight ends got 90 targets. Some of them scored 10 touchdowns and at 90 targets, but 94 of them got 90 targets. Only six of them got there with fewer than 90 targets and scoring 10 touchdowns.
00:13:58
So we're talking like Robert Tunnion. One year, when you're wrong scored 10 touchdowns at 10 games and they got hurt and finished top five, right. So the bar really when you really blow down those numbers, the bar is 90 targets. That's what we want. And being a top two target on the team is the easiest way to get those targets.
00:14:14
Well, and the first guy that I'm going to bring up here for breakouts and it's going to be no surprise because yes, I am a bills fan, but it is certainly somebody that I think has a chance to lead his team in targets this year and it's Dalton King Cade.
00:14:26
And I mean, you have to like the way that he said up here, the way things are going in Buffalo, it seems like they're following this like chiefs blueprint in recent years. So I think they believe they've found their Kelsey and King Cade.
00:14:39
Then they let go their alpha receiver and for Casey, it was Tyrick from Buffalo, it's digs now they've built a receiving core with, you know, couple interesting veterans, a Curtis Samuel, Closch here, still there.
00:14:49
And then you bring in a rookie and key on Coleman that they hope can emerge as an impact player sooner rather than later, but could take him a little while here in Coleman, of course, being the Rishi Rice in that scenario and Rishi Rice started the season slow, but eventually came on last year.
00:15:04
And if that plan works out, King Cade could definitely be the de facto number one receiver in this offense at worst, he would be top two.
00:15:12
And based on what we saw last year, he has the skills to excel in that role, right? He had the slow opening month is a rookie, but from week seven on, he was the Titan 11 and fantasy points per game. And that was with digs still around.
00:15:24
Now, you know, you look at what he did last year, I mean, 73 catches, 673 yards, only two scores, so the touchdowns weren't really there for him, but as a rookie, those are nice numbers, otherwise, now we're going to see if he could take his game to another level.
00:15:36
I think he can, I'm projecting him for 83 receptions, 842 yards and seven touchdowns this year, which I don't even think is that crazy of a projection, but it would make him a top four fantasy tight end, it would make him a breakout guy.
00:15:49
So he's somebody that's on my list, pits as well, even though I know some people want to argue and say, well, pits at a thousand yards is a rookie like you mentioned, so he doesn't really count, but I think he counts in the same way that you said before we started answering this, which is he could take his game to just another stratosphere.
00:16:04
That's kind of what's going on with concade here as well, and then I throw Brock Bowers on this list, you know, this is one of those ones, it's very low hanging fruit, but I want to make sure that people know the people who are coming back around this time of year, a first round pick, an elite prospect, you know, even go into the Raiders, where he's going to have to compete with Adams and Jacobi Myers for targets, he should still be able to finish as a fantasy tight end one in his first season.
00:16:27
Yeah, when I go and look for, first of all, I'm rooting for Dalton concade with you, I got a stack of, I'm a Patriots fan, I got a stack of Dalton concade cards sitting next to me right now.
00:16:35
That was like me on, he had heard it says show yesterday talking up to him on H&N and saying like, and the bills fan of me is just dying inside as I talk about how excited I am about H&N and the Dolphins offense, but it has to happen.
00:16:47
It has to. We got to be unbiased, you know, I'm biased. Once I, once I finish my, my shows on Sunday morning and one of 101 hits and the balls kicked off, then I'm a biased Patriots fan.
00:17:00
And then once the, once the, the game is over, then I'm back to being an unbiased analyst, right. So yeah, Dalton concade, I mean, people, you know, and you know, it was really ahead of the game with Chan Galey.
00:17:12
Chan Galey, way back with the chiefs had Tony Gonzalez playing big slot and he actually ran that year, the, the second most slot routes in the league of any player behind only Heinz Ward, right.
00:17:24
And he brought that around. Sometimes he would have a guy like Eric Decker playing it, which doesn't help us in fantasy, but he brought that around with guys like Micah Seki. And I think a lot of teams, you know, are, are figuring out that these guys can catch just as well as the wide receivers, but they're much better at blocking.
00:17:41
I mean, think about Evan Engram in the slot versus Cole Beasley in the slot. I trust Evan Engram to catch the ball and do all things he got like Beasley could do, but he, he's not a good inline blocker, but he's one of the best blocking wide receivers in the league.
00:17:52
And that's why I got like Brock Bowers, I look at him and say no wonder he went so high because when I look around for comparable tight ends, there aren't many of them.
00:18:00
The best comparable players for this guy with his size and athleticism are, you know, he's basically like a stronger Jordy Nelson or, you know, like Andre Johnson, like those are the kind of players that are comparable to Brock Bowers in terms of production and size and speed.
00:18:14
So I'm very excited about that. It's just a matter of the game is because Devati Adams is going to get his 150, what's the minimum healthy Devati Adams gets for targets 140?
00:18:25
Yeah, probably in that range. He got like 180 last year. So somewhere in that range. So it's him versus Jacob Myers. Right. And I think that he could easily beat out Myers for those targets, which, which gives him top five upside, but minimum tight end one range.
00:18:39
So it's just such a great time for tight end man. Thanks for having me on. So many years, people were like, oh, you know, we're going to remove the tight ends lot from our league and and water it down and make it easier on everybody.
00:18:52
We're just going to drop running backs and wide receivers or this is just, you know, it's Travis Kelsey and no one else. Right. Travis Kelsey, then who cares. That's whatever would say to me. Well, guess who has to start caring everybody because tight ends are back. So let's go.
00:19:04
Let's go on the CBS Dynasty show a week or two ago. And they were asking me, you know, what's one thing that I love about dynasty leagues, like kind of the thing that I really want to have if I'm starting a new league. And I was like, I want it to be the deepest possible starting rosters.
00:19:17
Like let's start three running backs and five receivers and two tight ends and like, let's just challenge. Like, you know, even if you have a guy like Kelsey that's leaps and bounds ahead everybody, that's still going to add strategy to the draft and make people try to, you know, make moves and figure it out and find ways to manufacture.
00:19:33
Production. So yeah, I, I'm with you there that I love talking about tight ends. I love going deep with these positions. And we'll see how deep we get today because so far it's been like all positive. So now we got to go to the negative side of it.
00:19:44
We got to talk about some potential busts. Uh oh, spoiler. This might be where I bring up Evan Ingram and you might give me a little pushback based on the way you've been talking. But here we go.
00:19:52
So I will let you go first. Who is the potential disappointment at tight end this year? Who are you, you know, waving that warning flag about? Well, to be honest, I already kind of waved at about George Kittle. And my warning to people is, so I love George Kittle.
00:20:07
Because at any given time, he can, he can blow up for these crazy plays, but, you know, last year again, 19 games in 12 of those games, he had three or fewer receptions.
00:20:19
You got to understand that Shanahan himself has said that at times this player is going to block so that other players can run routes.
00:20:27
Uh, you know, and unless Brandon IU gets traded, right, there's a possibility that he's not a top three target top two target on the team or top three, right?
00:20:37
Like last year technically was, but it took some Debo and IU injury games to get there. And of the seven games where he had seven or more targets.
00:20:46
Six of those games, they were missing one of Debo IU or George Jennings, right? So you got to keep in mind that this guy, he's going to have these monster games that keep you excited. But anyway, that's roster this guy in the past knows what kind of roller coaster that can be.
00:20:58
The other guys there that I keep, I continue to see these players drafted, which are Dalton Schultz and Colcomat, I would not draft Colcomat. I'm not getting you if it was a 20 rounds draft and we were in the 20th rounds.
00:21:14
I'm telling you, I don't understand what like I get the service level analysis is tight end seven back to back years gets a better quarterback that I understand I understand where you're coming from.
00:21:26
But you got to remember, he was competing with Darnell Mooney coming off a high ankle spraying that was so bad, his leg broke and he had to have tight road surgery.
00:21:34
And then it was DJ more in him and those are the top two guys. Now you've got DJ more or keen and Alan as the top target on the team, you can pick whichever you want. It doesn't matter in the context of picking who's third.
00:21:45
And you got Roman dudes a who's a ninth overall pick. And even more concerning that is you have Shane Waldron who going back to when he was the ramps tight end coach in 2017 has never had a tight end play more than 75% of the snaps for his team.
00:21:59
If Colcomat plays more than 75% percent of the snaps this year, it will be the first time ever for Shane Waldron offense. And once the first thing he does, he brings in Gerald Everett who Gerald Everett was he was the tight end coach when they drafted Everett in 2017.
00:22:14
He brought Everett to the Seahawks. He's bringing Everett over. It's going to be a rotation. And guess what Gerald Everett doesn't block. So if you're you're divvying up the jobs and one guy has to put his hand in the dirt and block and one guy has to gets to play slot and run the routes.
00:22:28
Are you really going to have Gerald Everett blocks of Colcomat and run routes?
00:22:31
I don't think so.
00:22:32
I mean, what comment was last year was probably what we think Pat Farmer is going to be this year, right? Like he was the guy that there was only the one receiver in the offense.
00:22:40
So he kind of stepped up got those opportunities scored some touchdowns and ended up finishing, you know, decent for fantasy. But now this season, yeah, you can't look at that offense and go, okay, Colcomat versus all those receivers with Everett there with the Andre Swift now in the backfield.
00:22:56
There's so many more weapons there that yeah, there's no way I just every time I do my rankings updates, I keep moving comment down and that's as someone that actually don't mind him as a player, but you look at the situation, it's just completely changed for him.
00:23:09
All right. So I'm going to say a quick piece here about George Kittle because I feel like I got to stand up for Kittle a little bit. And maybe it's just I agree with Dave Clooney that I want that tight end that could potentially win me weeks. And there's not many tight ends out there that have that kind of ceiling that Kittle has.
00:23:24
But you know, 30 years old, I get it top five fantasy tight end for six consecutive years, though, and he's continued to do it even with all those other guys there. And then he has that higher ceiling if and when and normally it's when one of those other guys gets hurt.
00:23:40
So for me, it's where Kittle's going. If you were telling me that he was going as you know, the third tight end off the board this year, I probably wouldn't be in on him. But the fact that you normally falls after all those other guys that we talked about and you can get him in the six.
00:23:54
There's sometimes later at that point, I am willing to take a shot on him. And I think he is actually a decent pick in that range.
00:24:01
If for no other reason, then you can if things don't work out if he gets hurt or something like that, you can find tight end production to fill in for him in the weeks that he's not there.
00:24:11
And hopefully I build my roster in a way where I can make up for those weeks when he's not putting up big numbers.
00:24:17
One thing I want to throw in on Kittle that is kind of kind of unique to guys like Kittle is that if you find another like let's say you go get a young tight end, you have Kittle, but you're also looking for upside. Kittle on name value is very tradable.
00:24:30
You know what I mean? So if you start the season and you're looking around and you're saying, oh man, you know, he's kind of the third target on the team after a couple games here and it's not it's not looking good and not feeling good.
00:24:40
It's so much easier to trade George Kittle than it is to trade past fire booth or Evan Engram or Kyle pits like or a lot of these guys on name value.
00:24:50
I mean, it's like obviously Laporta is steamed up, but like Kelsey Andrews Kittle. It's not difficult to trade them. People watch George Kittle.
00:24:57
They see that name. They feel comfortable. So there's something to be said about that.
00:25:00
It's a very, very good point to make and one that I don't think people think about enough sometimes the name value that some of these guys carry that if you're Brian Robinson.
00:25:09
On the commanders, you just have a boring name. You might be able to have some good fantasy weeks, but people are going to be that excited about drafting you.
00:25:16
But George Kittle with the crazy hair and the excitement and you know the flashingness of him. If Kyle if Kyle pits comes out and starts the season with two catches in each of the first two games, he's untradable.
00:25:27
If George Kittle comes out and does it. Well, he's George Kittle. So you know what I mean? I used to want him. So there is he's got some staying power because of what he's done so far.
00:25:37
All right. So for me, the bus that I'm going with is Ingram. Like I said, and I want you to tell me why are about this because the way I see it.
00:25:44
A lot of his big games have been happening when there's been injuries in the receiving court. If you look back to last year Christian Kirk was healthy for those first 12 games.
00:25:53
Ingram averaged under 48 yards per game. He was the tight end 14 during that time. And he was averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game and half BPR.
00:26:02
And then the Kirk injury happens. And after that, Evan Ingram is the highest scoring fantasy tight end for the rest of the season. And he basically doubles his points. He's averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game.
00:26:12
So now you're going to have Kirk healthy this year, hopefully for the whole season. And I know you have some other guys leaving Calvin Ridley's age zones. Those guys are gone.
00:26:19
But now you bring in Brian Thomas Jr. first round pick at receiver. You bring in Gabe Davis who's serviceable Parker Washington's giving talked up a little bit in camp.
00:26:28
I'm just not sure that that ceiling is there for Ingram like all those other guys that we talked about. I just don't think that he's going to have that production unless we see injuries happen around him. And it's hard to bank on that.
00:26:40
I made the joke about the 49ers probably having injuries because we just see it happen all the time in that offense. I think it's hard to just assume that's going to happen in Jacksonville.
00:26:49
So I worry that people might be getting lured in because at the end of last year Ingram was this force in their lineup and probably help them go on to win fantasy titles. And right now he's going as the tight end eight like the sixth or seventh round not that far after those other guys, he just somebody that I've really not taken.
00:27:06
Yeah. And you know what's interesting about it about Ingram. And we talk about fantasy. We just talked a little bit about like the psychology of it.
00:27:13
What if Ingram had scored two more touchdowns right and then he had finished because he only finished nine points behind Laporta. What if he finishes the tight end one. Where would he be going and drafts this year.
00:27:23
Probably not tight end seven or eight. Just the idea of say, oh, this guy was the tight end one. He probably going somewhere in the top five. Right. It's funny, but it's true. Yeah.
00:27:31
It's funny. It's interesting how that goes. I do 100% agree on your point. And that's why I kind of have Ingram more as like a a Yin and Yang option for those that maybe just listen for the first time.
00:27:41
What we do with the Yin and Yang is you draft one guy that you can get later at a good value. And you start him early in the season and use one bench spot on the highest risk highest reward possible guy.
00:27:53
Since we have the Ingram in there, the Yin tight end. We don't care about the floor. So you know last year we used it.
00:27:59
Evan Ingram and Laporta was one of the perfect pairings. Evan Ingram and Don Concade had the same biweek. So we were actually if we drafted Ingram first we were going with Laporta, which worked out incredibly well last year.
00:28:09
It doesn't work out like that every year, but last year was really worked out really well. But so that's kind of how I'm looking at him.
00:28:15
He has an incredible floor like we don't expect him to get 143 targets. If we thought he was going to get 143 targets again like he did last year.
00:28:23
He would be going as a tight end one. Like I think we all understand that he's going to have fewer targets this year, but we have to remember that it's still Doug Peterson.
00:28:31
Doug Peterson called the most tight end screens in the league last year. Evan Ingram got 21 receptions on tight end screens alone.
00:28:39
So we're talking at least the reception every single game, just a free one. Right. And you look at Doug Peterson. He's doing that going all the way back to Zacherts and Dallas got it. Right.
00:28:51
So this isn't even the most targets a Doug Peterson tight ends ever got. Zacherts got 156 in this office in a 16 game season. So it's entirely possible that coming out this year with just Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, who Gabe Davis is going to be a target hog.
00:29:06
And Brian Thomas Jr., who you know, he's the first round pick, but he's also a rookie. I mean, the there's a real possibility as a Patriots fan.
00:29:15
I've seen a pick go in that same exact spot. A guy named the Keele Harry that ended up being an exact nothing, a zero. So you got a, you got a factor in that you don't even need an injury like with Kittle with Ingram.
00:29:27
You just need a rookie play like a rookie Gabe Davis to play like Gabe Davis Christian Kirk to just be Christian Kirk, which is just OK. And he easily clears 100 targets.
00:29:36
He only needs 90 to have top five upside. But again, we don't need him to have 143 if he has 110. Now he's returning his value at ADP. And maybe instead of scoring four touchdowns, he scores six or seven or eight because we know touchdowns are fluke to some degree.
00:29:50
And I shouldn't do this. But another thing for your side of it is Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, those guys can kind of help stretch the field and be kind of downfield options.
00:30:01
And now you're going to allow Kirk and Ingram to really do their thing underneath and in the middle. So that could be a factor as well. They're like you're saying if Thomas doesn't really make a huge impact in year one.
00:30:12
That could be the way that he actually helps the offense the most is just by drawing coverage away from those other guys and the veterans that they kind of want to feature there underneath. So that's definitely a good case by you there.
00:30:23
You mentioned Dalton Schultz earlier. I agree with that one. I mean, he's another guy that kind of needed receivers to get hurt last year before he really did much. And not only are Nico Collins and think they're going to be healthy.
00:30:34
They add Stefan digs to the party. So Schultz, not somebody that I'm drafting. And Dallas Goddard's another one. We haven't really mentioned him yet. I don't think last year, you know, tight end 13. But the Eagles have that killer tandem of brown and Smith on the outside.
00:30:48
Now they add Sequan Barkley and his past sketching skills to the offense. So I think Goddard's going to be really boomer bust. And again, another guy that if you put him in a different situation, I think he could be a good fantasy tight end.
00:31:00
But where he is now in Philly. It's going to be very boomer bust. And I don't think there's going to be enough booms to make it worth your while.
00:31:07
What people don't understand about Dallas Goddard is they see him and they think big. So touchdowns, right. But this guy really has not been a red zone or end zone target throughout his career.
00:31:19
Over the last three years, he's only had seven end zone targets to put that perspective, Donald par him got seven last year, right. This guy. And again, if you have a quarterback that has a borderline automatic play from the goal line, right.
00:31:34
15 rushing touchdowns for Jalen Hertz. Why are you going to chuck it up for grabs to Dallas Goddard. It just doesn't make you know what I mean.
00:31:41
I got like Aaron Rogers who audibles from the one yard line to throw it every single time you're going to get some of those right. But a guy like Jalen Hertz, he's going to take it himself or take one's going to score it.
00:31:51
We're going to throw it a J Brown or they're going to throw it a Devonta Smith. So he is like exactly that kind of middle of the pack guy and, you know, if you're again, if you're going to young tight end, you feel okay with him in the lineup.
00:32:05
But I wouldn't draft him and say I'm done, right. If you draft him, I find I consider myself still in need of some upside. I'm still using one bench by where those guys are going and drafts.
00:32:15
You know, if you start your draft with five wide receivers and four running backs and a quarterback, you can still take got it where he's going or some of these guys.
00:32:23
You don't have to also then fill your bench entirely with wide receivers. I know it's a lot of fun, but it's okay to use one bench pot on upside a quarterback or tight end.
00:32:33
There's a lot of people that say they never will do that. And those people never get Sam LaPorta. They never get CJ Stroud or join love.
00:32:41
Of course, you might be maybe your first to waivers, but if you got somebody in your league doing you and you ain't tight end like we are, then those guys get drafted the upside guys.
00:32:49
You got to either draft the upside guys or get extremely lucky. So that's just my my spiel on that. But I'm with you on Goddard, just not exciting player.
00:32:57
And if you're talking about guys that get hurt five years straight for him. So if you're banking on AJ Brown or Devonta Smith, they get hurt so we can have upside. He's the one that gets hurt all the time.
00:33:05
All right. So we got to the breakouts. We got to the bus candidates. We're already running longer than I expected and we joke before the show we knew this was going to happen.
00:33:14
And especially now I'm going to have to cut this one off because I feel like we could spend just an hour on this. But if we're talking sleepers, is there anybody going a little bit deeper?
00:33:23
I don't know how far we want to start with it, but we can basically talk about anybody else at this point.
00:33:28
But who do you want to highlight as somebody that you think the fantasy community may be sleeping on a little bit?
00:33:32
Yeah, you know what I'll do is and you know, we'll include middle to deep sleepers all in one quick quick example is that you talked about we talked about earlier the stat top two tight end top two target on the team.
00:33:44
Use your imagination early on. We're making arguments on Kittle or England. Why am I drafting these guys? Right. Why is it so safe later on? Say why not?
00:33:54
Like why can't this guy be a top two target on the team? Who are going to be the top targets on the New England Patriots?
00:34:00
The New England Patriots last year called zero tight end screens, not one. Meanwhile Alex van Pelt over with the Browns called the second most called 20.
00:34:09
You know, it's David and Joku, but you throw a couple more manufactured touches on top of Henry who's already pretty good in the red zone, somehow miraculously scoring 16 touch, six touchdowns when they threw 16 right.
00:34:21
Talk about touchdown ratio, but you know guys like that, like who's going to be the top two targets on the chargers? Could it be Hayden Hurst? Right.
00:34:30
We're not interested in Will Dizzley because he was already slow and he had multiple parable leg injuries.
00:34:35
If he's the starting tight end, there's no tight end, but what if it's Hayden Hurst, right? What if it's Greg dosage, right?
00:34:40
What if Greg dosage beats out Lucas Kroll for that past catch you job? Or what if it's Lucas Kroll? I'll drop a Lucas Kroll on the show.
00:34:46
Boom. How's that for deep. I have on my list. I want to do a super deep sleepers column. And he was the picture at the top of the article. Yeah. We've already talked about Lucas Kroll here before.
00:34:55
Sean Payton said people are going to know who number 85 is. Now that's what he said in May about Lucas Kroll. And since then, it's been all Dulsage steam since he's been back.
00:35:04
But if you think about it, Lucas Kroll got more ran more routes than Adam Tropman over the second half of the season.
00:35:10
And that offense uses the quote unquote Joker out of position roles with Jimmy Graham, obviously famous example and Jerry Judy's gone.
00:35:18
So underneath targets are wide open. One of those guys could be, I mean, he's going like tight in 39 Greg dosage and Lucas Kroll. I don't got a ADP on him. Do you?
00:35:27
I think the super deep sleepers column. I was goals players that were going outside the top 200 overall, like of every position. So he's well outside of all of that.
00:35:38
Yeah. So, I mean, entirely possible. Use your imagination. Look around and say, okay. And this is the biggest one I tell people. People always come to me and they're like, I hate this wide receiver. He sucks. I'm like, okay, what are you doing about it?
00:35:49
Right? Like if that guy is so bad, who is going to get the targets? Right? Look to the next guy down the depth chart. Let's say that with people like Keon Coleman. They're like, Oh, Keon Coleman's going to be such a bust. I'm like, you must be drafting Dalton gigate everywhere then, right?
00:36:01
Like lean into your takes on both sides. So there's a lot of situations like that where who knows who's going to be the top two guys turns out that Sam Laporta is way better than Josh Reynolds and also James and Williams at getting targets.
00:36:15
And that's where that came from. That's why he was being he was that far back. Right? So look around. Use your imagination.
00:36:21
I don't know if I've ever heard your thoughts on this next guy that I'm going to bring up, but Tyler Conklin and he's he's moving up a little bit like he's gotten some positive reports and off season practices.
00:36:30
So I think people are starting to come around on it. Maybe not as much of a sleeper as he was when I wrote my column a month or two ago.
00:36:36
But he's a guy that I had him as my main tight end sleeper last year and then Aaron Rogers got hurt so we didn't see the best from Conklin because of it.
00:36:45
But it also wasn't that bad from him last year considering the quarterback situation that the jets have had for the last couple of years.
00:36:51
He deals with that sub park you be play. He finished 11th and receptions among tight ends was 61 finish 13th and yards was 621 didn't move the needle for fantasy because he didn't score touchdown.
00:37:03
Now Rogers is back. That's not going to be a problem. I don't think anymore. You have Mike Williams there is the new number two behind Garrett Wilson at receiver, but Mike Williams coming off a serious injury.
00:37:13
Is he going to be ready at the start of the year? Is he going to be himself early in the season? And if you want to go back even further with Conklin, it's not just last year that I'm looking at.
00:37:22
It's his first year with the jets in 2022 bad cubies still finishes the tight end 16 in fantasy 58 catches 552 yards that place among the top 12 tight ends in those categories that year.
00:37:35
And even the year before the last years with the Vikings kind of quietly finished as the tight end 17 61 catches 593 yards that was the 10th most receptions and the 14th most yards.
00:37:47
So if we can get a decent touchdown total to go along with either those types of stats that catches and yards or maybe even a little bit better now that Rogers is there, I think Conklin could kind of come from outside the top 20 and put himself in like the low end tight end one conversation.
00:38:03
And I'll tell you I've got a love hate relationship with these guys, especially Tyler Conklin these guys that not particularly athletic super low a dot, but as you just pointed out, there's a ton of arguments for him to make that right in best ball, especially or if you're, you know, like Justin Boone and you're just amazing at the fantasy pros contest over there and you're trying to generate right value.
00:38:25
He's a perfect player for that type of thing. I will say this, I did a little study on I will look to have how often three players on the same team all got 100 targets using profile focus last year, no team did it the year before last only the Vikings did it.
00:38:41
And TJ Hawkins was traded mid season so that was kind of an asterisk the year before that no team did it over last seven years, only seven teams have done it one of the the big a lot of time injuries involved which you know you got to kind of.
00:38:53
Take that with great salt, but one of the configurations that happens the most in that group is a running back as part of it, we have a wide receiver and a running back and a tight end or two wide receivers and a running back that's how you get that like Antonio Gibson and Logan Thomas and Terry McClauren.
00:39:10
So if you're ruling out Mike Williams, you think Mike Williams is just going to be a side player right there's a real possibility that Garrett Wilson breeze hall Tyler Conklin that's the off that's that's the office and we talked about earlier if anyone's going to throw random touchdowns to every once because he sees something in a lot of scrimmage.
00:39:27
It's a Rogers right that's like his M.O. is to how to Robert Tanya score 11 touchdowns you know exactly that way because you know when people are looking around he's looking around at who the good he knows all the good players he knows where to call the audibles.
00:39:41
He could at any point to side Tyler Conklin deserves three touchdowns of the game.
00:39:45
All right, I don't care that we're going long here. I got a couple more guys that I want to mention is like very, very deep guys.
00:39:50
One of them actually is Robert Tanya on the Vikings now and he left this week with a back injury. They said it was back spasms. So we'll have to keep an eye on that and see if that's something that's going to keep him out for a bit here.
00:40:02
TJ Hawkinson coming back from the ACL and MCL tears that happened in December he could miss the opening month or two before this back injury for Tanya and the beatwriters were saying that he was positioned to be the top pass catching tight end in Minnesota which could potentially be a valuable spot early in the season
00:40:18
because Jordan Addison's potential suspension that could happen right so it's shocking that we are mentioning him as a potential like just maybe like a spot starter early
00:40:27
FF the people people own boats because of you know week one Robert Tanya's in the world right like that's the FS especially guys like that and I look at it people.
00:40:38
The people are having this conversation of like Josh Oliver versus Johnny month. I don't think they know the history of Johnny month.
00:40:46
Johnny month coming over from the Rams with Kevin O'Connell. He was the quintessential block and never touched the football guy.
00:40:53
It just so happened they had two of those guys that were guys you don't want touching the football and they had to look around and say one of you guys got to start catching the ball.
00:41:01
We're not going to train you know it's like are we going to make Josh Oliver learn a different role and then Johnny month takes his role or should we just have Josh Oliver keep his role and we'll have Johnny month play this new role that's what they decided to do.
00:41:13
But you're right they clearly wanted to bring in somebody with past catching prowess and again with the hawks and stuff people are so bullish on him coming back on time.
00:41:21
But he got heard around the same pretty you know around the same time as Tyler Higby and people are saying Tyler Higby's dead. I don't understand why one guy people are drafting him and saying he's going to be back and the other one they're not.
00:41:33
I mean we already did the fades but like TJ Hocketson coming off a serious injury with two past catching two good wide receivers on the team in a massive downgrade at cubie.
00:41:43
I just don't really find myself doing much hockey to be honest.
00:41:46
Yeah if it's an IR spot maybe two hours really really late or if it's like a keeper league and you could do like the sneaky thing we draft like one of the last rounds and throw them in your IR for the year like maybe in that situation.
00:41:58
But I like that you brought up Higby because I think Colby Parkinson could be another one of these guys and maybe even more than Tanya who could potentially have good value early in the season and maybe for the whole season right.
00:42:09
And they gave him a decent contract that would say was like 15.5 million guaranteed and that kind of raised some eyebrows but I think it's because they might envision him as the starter moving forward if Higby can't get back.
00:42:21
He's 31 this year right come back from it was ACL and MCL in January for him so could be an OK fantasy world not going to be one of the top two targets but again we're going very very deep on these.
00:42:33
As guys that are going to be good offenses that we could potentially see have some appeal is like you know one week two week starter kind of thing and with Parkinson we'll see but I don't know that he's going to get all the way up into the range where he's going to be a regular starter for you just a lot more valuable than where he's going right now drafts.
00:42:49
And let me tell you from the people that brought you in and yang tight end we've got a new term we've been using this year you ready for it the double handcuffs plus is the term so guy like Dallas got it perfect example he has some stand alone value but if either one of two players gets hurt now his value ascends right so if
00:43:09
either AJ Brown or Devonta Smith gets hurt so it's double handcuff and he has the plus there Colby Parkinson might just be a double handcuff but if one of Cooper Cup or poking to Kuha gets hurt.
00:43:19
You know DeMarcus Robbins we know who he is I'm not sure he's all is going to become 130 target guy that we're expecting these other guys to be there's targets to be picked up look at K dot last year K dot
00:43:29
behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin when Godwin was dealing with a neck injury had a couple good games in the playoffs Godwin's dealing with the knee injury.
00:43:36
K dot turn into a superstar right like he was awesome in those two playoff games when Godwin was banged up these guys out there that are the third target but if either of the top two guys gets hurt they slide right in there that's not the case with a lot of guys it's why we
00:43:49
don't like Donald Schultz tank del gets hurt then you still need somebody else to get her if if one of the sea ox wide receivers gets hurt does no offense have have upside
00:43:57
immediately but a guy like Colby Parkinson I mean he's right there well this is a testament to you sir this is going to be the longest
00:44:05
episode of the position previews and I thought I told you running backs of wide receivers okay there's way more players to talk about I even
00:44:11
said there's no way that this is going to go you know more than a half hour so we're entering minute 45 here right so one more guy that I
00:44:19
want to mention before we get to the rapid fire section when he's bringing the guys up so you know I'm not going to let you talk about this
00:44:24
what I'm just going to say I'm going to go to the rapid fire section a Theo Johnson on the Giants Darren Waller retiring Johnson came off
00:44:31
pup this week starting to get reps with the first team offense right away is an athletic guy could fill some of that waller
00:44:37
role at the same time day three pick it's a low percentage swing and my guess is that it's probably going to be some sort of
00:44:43
committee at tight end in New York with Belinger and with Lawrence Kager those guys are going to be involved too but if somebody
00:44:49
emerges there I think Theo Johnson's going to be the guy and I'm sure you want to say something but I'm not going
00:44:53
to let you we're going to go right into the rapid fire section and I don't remember if we did this last
00:44:58
time you were on it quick answers only you can give some context if you want to I'm not going to like cut your
00:45:03
pick or anything you'll let you talk it out here let's start with are there any tier breaks that you see in
00:45:09
that top seven or top eight for you among the tight ends are there clear tier breaks or do you just kind
00:45:15
of look at all those guys together big time clear tier breaks and ADP for me the breaks aren't exactly the same
00:45:21
but it's it's two with Kelsey Laporta three with King Cade McBride Andrews and then three again
00:45:27
with Kittle and Grim and pits and again I'm happy to get certain players from each tier but the ADP is pretty clear on that one.
00:45:35
All right do you see anybody like unexpected and it might be a name we've already mentioned here anybody that's
00:45:40
unexpected joining that top tight end tier this year as in next year we drafted them there or by August.
00:45:46
Yeah that next year like this season they'll join it and then next year will they'll be in it.
00:45:51
I think that if Pat Freirem you've has that kind of year he would be the one where people start treating him like
00:45:57
like where they used to draft Goddard and maybe where they draft Kittle.
00:46:00
Which rookie tight end other than Bowers has the best chance to be a fantasy star this year.
00:46:05
So you already brought up Theo Johnson which I love his athletic rest course all also found a way to talk about him.
00:46:11
Yeah I should have I should have snuck more and now Ben Senate of course you know we want Zachards probably going to start and
00:46:18
you know like he did last year with the Cardinals but he's kind of the launching pad for these tight ends
00:46:23
given whether it's Goddard or Tremac Bride last year we could see it there he's a good player second round pick.
00:46:28
And then last one factoring in ADP who is the one tight end who is going to lead fantasy managers to a title this season.
00:46:35
So you know I want to say for our Muth again but I truly think that Kyle Pits could have a difference making season
00:46:43
all time great if things go right.
00:46:45
Like it and if people want to know my pick for this one I've been teasing them out you can go check out my seven players who
00:46:50
will lead you to a title column that is in the score fantasy football draft kit but that is all for today's show.
00:46:55
So make sure you're checking out all Andrew's content over a fantasy alarm go give them that follow on Twitter at Coupe Fiasco.
00:47:01
I have enjoyed this so much man I feel like the very first time you came on we had a conversation like this and it just flowed so well.
00:47:08
I really enjoyed getting to know you having you on the show joining you on your show.
00:47:13
I love the work that you do you know that so keep it up and on that note before we let you go is there anything that you're working on that you want to direct
00:47:20
people towards right now anything else that they should know about what you're doing or what you're involved with follow me on Twitter at Coupe Fiasco.
00:47:26
Coupe there it is on reddit and if you want like I said I tried to job as many stats I could sneak in some Theo Johnson takes if you want my take on
00:47:33
literally every fantasy relevant tight ends get a copy of the fantasy alarm draft guide the ultimate tight end guide is in there.
00:47:39
I make sense of gifts and some funny stuff some memes because no one's reading 20,000 words on tight ends without it but you walk out of that and I do the good in the
00:47:48
bad and then my advice for every player so you could even just look at the good in the bad and skip my advice if you just want the facts.
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But I cover every tight end that you walk away from that learning something and and I know you have sharp listeners so adjusting your own
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rankings you might not even use mine but I'm sure I can help you with yours great stuff definitely go check that out as for me.
00:48:08
My offensive line rankings went live on Wednesday you can find those over the score and in the score fantasy football draft kit also have an update to my red draft
00:48:16
rankings out later today and that means updates to the tears and salary cat values and everything else associated with it plus I'm working on a dynasty trade
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value update that's going to go out in the next couple days so be prepared for that to but until next time big thanks again to Andrew big thanks for
00:48:31
following on Twitter at Justin Boone big thanks to everybody for listening and we'll see you next time.
00:48:46
♪ I just sit and leave all time ♪