In an expected but still stunning escalation, the Trump administration has imposed 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, citing cross-border flows of fentanyl as justification. The move has sent shockwaves through U.S.-Mexico and North American relations, rattling markets and generating a general outcry.

In this episode, Stephanie Brewer, WOLA’s director for Mexico, and John Walsh, WOLA’s director for drug policy, unpack the political, economic, and security implications of the tariff imposition and an apparent return to failed attempts to stop drug abuse and drug trafficking through brute force.

Brewer breaks down how the tariffs and other new hardline policies, like terrorist designations for Mexican criminal groups and fast-tracked extraditions, are reshaping and severely straining the bilateral relationship.

Walsh explains why Trump’s focus on supply-side crackdowns is doomed to fail, drawing on decades of evidence from past U.S. drug wars. He lays out a harm reduction strategy that would save far more lives.

The conversation concludes with an open question: is Donald Trump really interested in a negotiation with Mexico? Or is the goal a permanent state of coercion, which would explain the lack of stated benchmarks for lifting the tariffs?

Links:

• See Brewer and Walsh’s February 14, 2025 Q&A on “Tariffs, Fentanyl, and Migration: Updates on U.S.-Mexico Relations after Trump’s First Month in Office.“
• They covered this territory in a December 5, 2024 podcast episode, shortly after Trump—then the president elect—first signaled his intention to impose tariffs.
• The December 5 podcast also came with a Q&A: “Trump’s Threats of Tariffs as a Response to Migration and the Fentanyl Overdose Crisis.”
• From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: CDC Reports Nearly 24% Decline in U.S. Drug Overdose Deaths, February 25, 2025
• From The Hill: Trump tariffs part of ‘drug war,’ not ‘trade war’: Commerce secretary, March 4, 2025