If you're depending on a tax refund this year to pay loans, make a down payment on a car or take a vacation, you might be out of luck.

According to the IRS, average refunds have been lower compared last year. If the trend continues, many Americans will end up with a smaller refund or worse — they may owe the government. Residents in high-tax states, like New York and New Jersey could see a bigger swing because President Trump's tax code overhaul capped deductions for state and local taxes.

But it doesn't mean people paid more taxes overall. The amount the IRS withheld from each paycheck was lower, so many people had a little more money each time they got paid. But it's a big change for those Americans who've become accustomed to pocketing some extra cash during tax season.

On this episode of Money Talking, Charlie Herman talks to Heather Long, economics correspondent for The Washington Post, about why this is happening and the political consequences it might have.