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December 27, 1772. Clifford & Co.—one of Europe's most prestigious banking houses—shuts its doors with nearly $1 billion in liabilities (in today's money). Within weeks, the contagion spreads: 20 banks collapse across Amsterdam, London, Hamburg, and beyond. The world's first global financial crisis.

The culprit? Mortgage-backed securities on Caribbean plantations, marketed as "safe and stable" to Dutch middle-class investors who trusted the reputation of shadow banks operating outside any regulation.

In 2025, history is rhyming.

BlackRock, Apollo, State Street, and KKR are packaging private credit for Main Street investors using identical structures, promises, and marketing language. The SEC just loosened restrictions. Your 401(k) provider will likely offer it soon. And credit rating agencies are already sounding alarms.

This episode breaks down:

• How Amsterdam's shadow banks created negotiaties—pooled plantation loans with zero transparency
• Why maturity mismatches (short-term liquidity promises on long-term illiquid assets) always end the same way
• The information asymmetry that benefits insiders and destroys retail investors
• What Alexander Fordyce's £300,000 loss triggered across three continents
• The 6 structural flaws of 1772 that exist in modern private credit
• What Moody's warned about in June 2025 (spoiler: systemic consequences)

Critical Modern Parallels: The same reputation-based investing. The same opacity. The same carry trade dynamics. The same maturity mismatches. The same "this time is different" mentality.

Except now it's being sold to your retirement account.

Key Takeaways:

• If something promises high returns + low risk + low volatility, at least one of those is false
• Ask these questions before investing: What are the actual companies? How leveraged? What happens in a redemption freeze? How are assets valued?
• The investors who survive crises aren't the ones maximizing returns during booms—they're the ones who survive busts
• When Wall Street packages something for retail, it's often because institutional money is getting cautious

Episode Resources:

• Full show notes with sources at thetimelessinvestor.com
• Subscribe to The Timeless Investor newsletter for deep dives into financial history
• Previous episode: Overend, Gurney & The Panic of 1866

About The Timeless Investor Show: Real estate fund manager and financial historian Arie van Gemeren explores the wreckage of financial catastrophes past and present, extracting timeless lessons for modern builders and investors. Because the best way to navigate the future is to understand the patterns of the past.

Think well. Act wisely. Build something timeless.

Episode Length: ~34 minutes

Topics: Financial History, Private Credit, Shadow Banking, Investment Strategy, Retirement Planning, Financial Crisis, Wealth Preservation, Amsterdam 1772, M

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Think Well. Act Wisely. Build Something Timeless.