The Two Jacks - Episode 133: Coalition Chaos, Net Zero Drama, and Trump's Tanking Polls

Update: 2025-11-13

Description

Recorded: November 6, 2025 (Oaks Day)

Hosts: Joel Hill (Jack the Insider) & Hong Kong Jack

Episode Description

Join Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack as they dissect the Coalition's spectacular implosion, the Nationals' abandonment of net zero, and why Dennis Shanahan called this opposition "the worst in 40 years." Plus: Trump's approval hits rock bottom, US midterm election results send shockwaves, and why Ireland elected a grim president who toured Syria with Assad.

Timestamps & Show Notes

00:00:25 - Welcome & Oaks Day Chat

The Jacks kick off discussing Melbourne's Oaks Day and why it was always better than the Cup for racing enthusiasts. Hong Kong Jack shares a memorable story about a judge who mysteriously adjourned court so everyone could hit the track.

00:02:39 - Coalition in Crisis: Net Zero Abandoned

The National Party abandons net zero emissions targets, putting enormous pressure on the Liberal Party. Dennis Shanahan declares this the "worst opposition in 40 years" after a horror question time where Alex Hawke couldn't understand basic parliamentary procedures.

00:05:38 - South Australian Liberal Party Mass Exodus

Over 200 members quit the SA Liberal Party in protest of Susan Ley's leadership and failure to abandon net zero. The state branch, dominated by hard-right figures like Senator Alex Antic, has a history of internal bloodshed.

00:07:33 - What Does Net Zero Actually Mean?

The Jacks discuss how net zero has become an "article of faith" for enough Australians to matter politically, even if most people can't define it. It essentially represents action on climate change in voters' minds.

00:12:29 - Can Susan Ley Survive to Christmas?

Hong Kong Jack predicts Ley might not survive until Christmas as Liberal leader, noting the killing season is upon us with the last parliamentary sitting coming up. Her best chance? That nobody else wants the awful job.

00:14:38 - The James Patterson Problem

Senator James Patterson is described as a rising star who actually reads his briefs, but he's stuck in the Senate. Finding him a safe House seat in Victoria is virtually impossible with Monash (the safest Liberal seat) held by only 4%.

00:16:58 - Liberal Party: From Major to Minor

Jack the Insider argues we're witnessing the Liberal Party's descent from major to minor party status, not unlike what happened to the United Australia Party in 1943. With only 26 members in parliament and 24% primary vote, the party faces potential oblivion.

00:18:34 - One Nation's Rise: 15-16% and Growing

One Nation's support has surged from 6% to 15-16%, with the party establishing branches across NSW and Queensland. The biggest threat isn't to the Liberals, but to the Nationals in mining-based seats like Hunter and Capricornia.

00:21:46 - COP in Adelaide: A Billion Dollar Boondoggle?

The proposed Conference of the Parties climate summit in Adelaide carries a $1 billion price tag. Hong Kong Jack questions who would notice if it didn't happen "apart from the grifters."

00:23:27 - National Anti-Corruption Commission Troubles

Commissioner Paul Brereton faces serious conflict of interest issues due to his Army Reserve role and involvement in Afghanistan war crimes inquiries. The commission operates largely in secret, disappointing those who wanted an ICAC-style public inquiry.

00:28:23 - RoboDebt: Why No Criminal Charges?

Discussion of the SBS documentary on RoboDebt and why senior public servants who knew the scheme was illegal haven't faced criminal charges. Some even got promoted despite their roles in the scandal.

00:30:19 - Bureau of Meteorology Website Disaster

The BOM's new website launched right before severe Queensland storms, leaving users unable to understand warnings. The acting CEO was dragged before Minister Murray Watt for a ritual flogging and awkward video apology.

00:35:52 - "Free" Solar Power Announcement

Chris Bowen announces three hours of free solar power daily for homes with smart meters in NSW, SE Queensland, and SA. Hong Kong Jack calls it "smoke and mirrors" - really just an attempt to shift demand to low-usage periods.

00:38:16 - Streaming Services Must Fund Aussie Content

New laws will require streaming platforms to invest 10% of expenditure or 7.5% of revenue in Australian content. Hong Kong Jack immediately asks if 98% can go to true crime documentaries.

00:41:56 - Coalition Support Crashes to Record Low 24%

Newspoll shows Coalition primary vote at just 24%, down from 40% in February. Combined with Labor's 33-34%, less than 60% of voters support the major parties - down from 80% in 2004.

00:44:39 - Andrew Neil: The Death of Centre-Right Parties

Discussion of Andrew Neil's speech to the Centre for Independent Studies about how conservative parties have lost the metropolitan, educated "lanyard class" who were once their base. The UK Conservatives now hold just 9 metropolitan seats.

00:48:34 - The Great Inversion: Rich Counties Vote Democrat

In the 1950s, Republicans won 56% of America's richest counties. In 2024, Democrats won 190 of the 200 richest counties. The establishment institutions - universities, judiciary, civil service - have all shifted centre-left.

00:51:19 - US Employment & Immigration Crackdown

US unemployment sits at 4.3%, but labor shortages are emerging as ICE sweeps up workers and visa costs skyrocket to $100,000. Meanwhile, Trump's disapproval rating hits 63% - the highest of either term.

00:52:53 - Virginia & New Jersey: Democrats Dominate

Tuesday's elections saw Democrats win overwhelmingly in traditionally blue areas, with every single county shifting toward Democrats - the complete reverse of 2024's presidential election pattern. Latino voters showed 30% leads for Democrats.

00:59:28 - Cost of Living Kills Administrations

Both Trump and Biden made the same mistake: telling Americans inflation is under control while grocery bills say otherwise. The New York mayor-elect won by focusing relentlessly on reducing childcare and living costs.

01:02:21 - Trump Has the World's Biggest Laser Pointer

Discussion of how Trump controls the news cycle while Americans struggle with real costs. "Trump has the biggest laser pointer in the world and all the media are cats" chasing wherever he points it.

01:03:23 - Millennials Aren't Becoming Conservative

Unlike previous generations, millennials in their 40s with mortgages and kids aren't shifting right. They continue voting left, with Liberals only leading in the 65+ demographic (52-48). Housing affordability drives cynicism and socialist sympathies.

01:07:20 - New York's New Socialist Mayor

Mandami wins NYC mayor's race with strong support from new arrivals who feel they'll never get a fair go. Long-time residents still voted for the corrupt Andrew Cuomo, knowing what a "terrible human being" he is.

01:09:13 - News in Brief

European firms create $6.5B SpaceX rival - Hungary begs for Russian oil exemption - Israeli startup raises $60M for sun-reflecting climate tech that could disrupt weather - Gaza rebuilding cost hits $70B - Trump companies made $1B in crypto profits - North Korea builds museum for Ukraine war dead - Ireland elects grim anti-NATO president who toured Syria with Assad.

01:13:55 - Supreme Court Tariff Showdown

SCOTUS hears arguments on Trump's emergency tariff powers - a 50-50 call that could force refunds of all tariff money collected and potentially save the presidency by making him walk it back.

01:16:45 - Government Shutdown & Dick Cheney's Death

The shutdown continues as 9 of 10 states most reliant on food assistance are red states. Dick Cheney dies at 84, described by critics as someone who should have been tried as a war criminal and by W as "among the finest public servants of his generation."