The Week Ahead: The Effect of Our Changed Habits

The Week Ahead: The Effect of Our Changed Habits

Update: 2021-04-05
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Welcome to Advisorpedia's Week Ahead.  Here's what's ahead.


The first quarter of 2021 was a positive one for US stocks, but the quarter, like the majority of days in it didn't end on a positive note.  
The S&P 500 finished the day in positive territory, but a last-hour sell-off clipped those gains considerably.  Wednesday's pattern was a microcosm of the pattern all year, where stocks open higher, rally throughout the trading day, and then sell-off in the last hour and into the close.  
How weak has the last hour of the trading day been?  Well, throughout Q1, despite the S&P 500 trading higher on 54% of all trading days, the last hour was only positive 31% of the time!  Relative to all other hourly intervals throughout the trading day, the last hour has been, by far, the least consistent to the upside.
Online pet supplier Chewy (CHWY) reported better than expected quarterly results on both its top and bottom lines. Revenue for the quarter jumped 50.8% YoY with autoship customer sales up 46.1% YoY to $1.39 billion, roughly 68% of total sales for the quarter. 
lululemon athletica (LULU) reported January quarter results that handily beat the consensus expectations as its total comps for the quarter increased 21% YoY. Direct to consumer net revenue increased 94% YoY to account for 52% of total net revenue in the quarter vs. 33% in the year ago one.
Thursday had great PMI data out of Europe - Eurozone record high. Almost all came in stronger than expected.
China disappointed to the downside with weaker than expected Manf PMI that is getting closer to flatline.
BUT - PMI are coincident indicators.
Pending home sales are leading indicator - fell 10.6% in February - the steepest plunge since April. Blame it on the weather again, but the West slid fell 7.4%?
Consumer Confidence 13-month high 109.7 v 96.9 (e) - biggest MoM increase since April 2003, but still well below Feb 2020 level of 132.6
The sharp increase in savings during the coronavirus-induced recession will allow for a strong growth in consumption. Investments in the coming quarters will be spurred by the increase in sales and the more favourable revenue expectations, supported by low financing costs. However, that investment growth overall will be dampened by additional bankruptcies in certain sectors after termination of the support policy and as a result of the damage to the balance sheet suffered by companies during the virus outbreak.


This Week


Monday, April 5: au Jibun Bank March Japan Services PMI; February Factory Orders; March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index; IHS Markit March US Services PMI. 
Tuesday April 6: Caixin March China General Services PMI.
Wednesday, April 7:  IHS Markit March Eurozone Composite PMI; Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index; February Trade Balance data; Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories; February Consumer Credit.
Thursday, April 1: Weekly and Continuing Jobless Claims; EIA Natural Gas Inventory report. 
Friday, April 2: March Producer Price Index; February Wholesale Inventories


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The Week Ahead: The Effect of Our Changed Habits

The Week Ahead: The Effect of Our Changed Habits

Douglas Heikkinen