Welcome to China Tariff News and Tracker, your source for up-to-the-minute updates on tariffs and U.S.-China trade developments.

The latest headlines center squarely on the ongoing negotiations between Washington and Beijing. On August 11, 2025, the United States and China announced a 90-day extension of their mutual tariff reductions as part of a temporary trade de-escalation pact. This agreement provides some relief for businesses reliant on cross-Pacific commerce, but it's important for listeners to note that the future of tariffs remains highly dependent on the outcome of upcoming Supreme Court deliberations and executive decisions.

Currently, the general United States tariff rate on imports from China is in flux, but most market analysts and trading platforms like Polymarket expect the rate to settle below 25 percent by November 12, 2025, with an 86 percent probability. There is an outside chance, around 11 percent, that the rate will fall between 25 and 40 percent, but higher brackets seem exceedingly unlikely as of now. Specific tariffs on goods related to the production of fentanyl are set to drop from 20 percent to 10 percent, part of an effort coordinated with Chinese authorities to curb the flow of illicit substances, according to the latest government sources.

In a significant press gaggle aboard Air Force One on November 2, President Donald Trump declared that tariffs are not just about economics, but also national security. He stated, “If we don’t have tariffs, we don’t have national security.” Trump also emphasized his personal rapport with Chinese President Xi Jinping, sharing that Chinese officials have assured him China will not take any action on Taiwan while Trump is in office. Trump’s posture is seen as a deterrent to Chinese expansionism and a way to maintain leverage during sensitive trade negotiations.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added further pressure, warning that the administration stands ready to raise tariffs if China does not honor its commitments, particularly regarding the lifting of restrictions on rare earth exports. This reflects the White House’s broader strategy to keep economic and strategic interests tightly linked.

Trade watchers highlight terms from the recent Busan agreement: The United States will lower the total tariff rate on Chinese goods from about 57 percent to 47 percent, postponing further escalation for now. The 47 percent rate is less severe than the peak of 135 percent seen after "Liberation Day" this spring, but it remains more than twice as high as the rate at the end of Trump's first term in 2021. Both U.S. and Chinese officials have described the new trade pact as a major stabilization, but many caution that the Trump administration has fundamentally reshaped the norm in international trade.

These tariff adjustments and negotiations could influence U.S. exports to China, which reached $14 billion year-to-date through July 2025, with analysts projecting further increases as China fulfills new purchase commitments pursuant to phase two trade agreements.

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