This week on Sinica, I welcome back Michael Cerny — formerly of the Carter Center and now a Ph.D. student at Harvard — and Rory Truex of Princeton University to discuss a new working paper they've co-authored. They undertook a large-scale survey of foreign policy professionals at U.S. think tanks to ascertain whether there is a "consensus" on China policy, as is often claimed, and whether people working in think tanks feel pressure to take on more "hawkish" positions on China policy. We also introduce a new segment called "Paying it Forward."

5:04 – What motivated Michael and Rory to write their paper together 

7:30 – Groupthink vs. consensus

10:08 – The methodology: combining surveys and interviews, and the sampling frame 

14:35 – Trying to avoid leading questions 

17:58 – Creating the “China Confrontation Index” 

20:25 – Different levels of acceptance of the labels “hawk” and “dove” 

23:33 – The issue of preference falsification 

25:43 – Mechanisms behind disparities in perceived pressure 

29:01 – Tying in Rory’s previous research on self-censorship 

32:42 – How Michael and Rory decided on interviews 

34:10 – What Michael believes were the most important and robust findings

36:09 – The distinction between the beliefs of think tankers vs. elected officials, and why people tend to believe there is a bipartisan consensus on China 

40:34 – Pressure on hawks 

42:35 – Specific policy questions

44:18 – Feedback on the paper so far, and what Michael and Rory may tweak in a subsequent draft 

49:47 – The possible role of personality in hawkishness or dovishness 

51:58 – Discussing Mike Mazarr’s concerns about the potential parallels between current Chinese discourse and the lead-up to the Iraq War 

55:06 – Advice to younger professionals entering the foreign policy/China field 

New segment: Paying It Forward:

Rory: Michael Cerny and Edi Obiakpani-Reid 

Recommendations:

Rory: Edi Obiakpani-Reid’s Sinobabble podcast about Chinese history

Michael: Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition

Kaiser: Imperium by Robert Harris 

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