Values and Uncertainties

Values and Uncertainties

Update: 2013-08-16
Share

Description

Eric Winsberg (USF) gives a talk at the MCMP Colloquium (29 May, 2013) titled "Values and Uncertainties". Abstract: There has been a great deal of emphasis, in recent years, on developing methods for quantifying uncertainty in the predictions of global and regional climate models. Such an approach would allow a division of labor between those who discover the facts and those who decide what we should value. And it is in line with a famous defense of scientific objectivity due to Richard Jeffrey. I argue, however, that value neutral probabilities for climate model projections will be hard to come by in the foreseeable future. In this paper I consider a variety of alternative proposals for presenting what we know about the future from climate models. I suggest that any such proposal ought to take account of " risk aversion" and "ambiguity aversion."
Comments 
00:00
00:00
x

0.5x

0.8x

1.0x

1.25x

1.5x

2.0x

3.0x

Sleep Timer

Off

End of Episode

5 Minutes

10 Minutes

15 Minutes

30 Minutes

45 Minutes

60 Minutes

120 Minutes

Values and Uncertainties

Values and Uncertainties

Eric Winsberg (USF)