September 28, 2026 | Season 8 | Episode 29

The market mood can change in a week, but the forces behind it are usually building for months. We start with the optics of a major US China summit and ask the uncomfortable question: what if the headlines are louder than the substance? We break down what was actually announced, why a short trade-truce extension may not calm deeper structural tensions, and what history teaches when pageantry papers over real conflict.

From there, we pivot straight into the tape: oil prices surge, futures slide, and Treasury yields keep climbing with the 10-year pushing above 5%. We talk through how higher interest rates ripple across portfolios, from the valuation math that hits equities to the substitution effect that makes safe yields suddenly competitive again. We also preview the biggest near-term catalysts for volatility, including the PCE inflation report and the US employment report, and why each data point can reset expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

The most practical part of the conversation is bonds. We share takeaways from veteran fixed income voice Dan Fuss on why long-term bonds can be dangerous when deficits are large, and why intermediate maturities may offer a better balance of yield and duration risk. Then we zoom out to debt-to-GDP history, using Britain after 1815 as a reminder that survival can hinge on credibility and growth, not perfection. We wrap with value investing ideas under pressure from rates, including Brookfield and Berkshire Hathaway’s move into homebuilder Lennar.

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** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. 

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