What 2024 Property Forecasts Got Right – And Wrong: Mid-Year Review

Update: 2024-06-16

Description

Wondering how the 2024 property forecasts are stacking up so far? Tune in to our mid-year review as we dive into the real estate predictions that nailed it and the ones that missed the mark. In this episode, we dissect the key trends, market shifts, and unexpected twists that have shaped the housing landscape in the first half of the year.

Today, we have Louis Christopher with us again to share his insights from the much-anticipated “Boom or Bust” report. Louis has a knack for making accurate predictions, but he’s also refreshingly honest about where he’s gone astray. We explore his methodology and the factors he weighs when making his forecasts. This episode is a must for anyone keen on understanding property market predictions and figuring out which ones to trust.

We also peek into what the rest of the year might hold, including potential surprises and how elements like inflation and geopolitical tensions could sway the market. Tune in to get a better grasp of the 2024 property market trends 'cause whether you're buying, selling, or investing, this episode offers vital insights into the current property market dynamics and what to keep an eye on in the months ahead.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 - Introduction

01:01 - Who is Louis Christopher?

01:43 - Discussion on the national market performance and overall trends observed in 2024

03:07 - Analysis of the market slowdown and how it compares to previous years

07:32 - Why the lack of major surprises in the property market despite economic uncertainties

12:15 - Discussion on Perth’s growth trajectory and contributing factors

16:53 - Projected rise of unemployment in Perth and its potential effects on property prices

19:00 - Brisbane’s growth and how it compares to other major cities

22:16 - How the number of property listings in Brisbane has changed over recent years

28:43 - Trend of declining property listings and transaction volumes in various locations

30:35 - The influence of stamp duty on property prices and market activity

35:08 - Louis’ analysis on the Australian Capital Territory

37:00 - The potential impact of upcoming elections on housing market forecasts

41:13 - The importance of creating scenarios to anticipate future developments in real estate

42:27 - How does media coverage influence public perception of real estate forecasts?

47:27 - Louis Christopher’s property dumbo

About Our Guest:

Louis Christopher established SQM Research in 2006. He was Head of Research and General Manager of the property statistics agency, Australian Property Monitors (APM) for six years. During his time at APM, Louis constructed key residential property market indexes published by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Prior to APM Louis spent three years at the Securities Institute of Australia as a Technical Editor. Louis previously spent 18 months at MLC working in the investment services. He is widely respected for the quality and accuracy of his market outlooks, ratings philosophy and forecasts for the Australian residential property market.

Connect with Louis Christopher:

Connect with Louis on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/louischristopher/

Visit SQM’s website: https://sqmresearch.com.au/

Connect with Louis on X: https://x.com/LouiChristopher

Resources mentioned in this episode:

Download Louis Christopher's 2024 Housing Boom and Bust Report here: https://sqmresearch.com.au/boombustreport.php

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au

If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au

Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au

Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au

Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au

Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

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