What Rate Cuts Mean For USD
Update: 2025-09-10
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The FX takeover segment explored what resumption of rate cuts means for the USD. Currently, markets fully price in a September rate cut with a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut rather than the standard 25. Glen Frybarger highlighted that when the Fed delivered its previous jumbo cut in 2023, the dollar initially weakened but rebounded strongly within a month. This time, the environment is different - the dollar is already down 8% YTD against a currency basket despite other central banks cutting rates. Markets expect 75 basis points in cuts by year-end, with rates eventually reaching 3%. Batista and Butler took advantage of potential price extremes, establishing long dollar positions against Swiss franc, Euro, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. "The surprise is already baked into where we're at," Butler noted, while Freiberger pointed to strong technical support for dollar positions despite the anticipated cutting cycle.
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