When Genius Fails: The Day the Models Broke
Description
Episode Description:
In September 2008, Lehman Brothers—who survived the Civil War, two World Wars, and the Great Depression—collapsed in one of the largest bankruptcies in American history. They had Nobel laureates on staff, sophisticated models, and decades of market data. Yet they missed the critical difference between managing risk and navigating uncertainty.
In this solo episode three days before the book The Uncertainty E.D.G.E. Lead with Clarity, Adapt with Confidence, Win with Conviction launches, Sam Sivarajan reveals why smart leaders repeatedly make this mistake and introduces the framework that helps you avoid it.
Key Takeaways:
- Why sophisticated risk management can blind you to true uncertainty
- The critical difference between risk (calculable) and uncertainty (unpredictable)
- How Lehman Brothers' 25-sigma events revealed the limits of modeling
- The four-phase EDGE framework: Establish, Diagnose, Go, Evolve
- Why the next two years require uncertainty navigation over risk management
Pre-Order The Uncertainty Edge:
🔥 Black Friday Special (ends Dec. 1): [Pre-order here] Regular launch price begins Dec. 2nd
Connect with Sam:
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samsivarajan/
- Website: https://www.samsivarajan.com/
Mentioned in This Episode:
- November 18 newsletter: "Why Smart Leaders Miss the Real Danger"
- Lehman Brothers collapse (2008)
- Richard Fuld and the 25-sigma events
- The 2008 financial crisis lessons
- JPMorgan's adaptive response under Jamie Dimon
United States
