Why GDP is Hot but Markets Are Cool?

Update: 2025-12-04

Description

This week, Monika breaks down the surprising 8.2% GDP growth print for India’s July–September quarter, and why the cheer hasn’t shown up in the stock market. She revisits the GDP formula and unpacks the drivers — strong private consumption, resilient services growth, a manufacturing boost from PLI schemes and GST cuts, and a surge in MSME credit that signals broad-based momentum. With India on track for ~7.5% growth this year, the fastest among major economies, Monika explains why this is solid, real activity rather than price-led nominal growth, and how that strength is built on rural spending, good monsoons and recent tax breaks.

Monika then turns to the puzzle of why markets remain flat despite a booming economy. She outlines three reasons: money being pulled into IPOs, gold and silver instead of the secondary market; exceptionally low inflation reducing the GDP deflator and therefore nominal growth (the number that drives corporate revenues, profits and market valuations); and stretched valuations that still need cooling. Even so, she emphasises that long-term investors should stay disciplined, maintain asset allocation across debt and equity, and rebalance if needed — the structural growth story remains intact. She also previews next week’s discussion on the RBI’s rate decision and what it means for households.

In listener questions, Shivam asks whether to prepay a low-rate education loan or invest aggressively, and how he and his wife should structure ₹1 lakh of monthly SIPs; Monika explains why, given their stability, keeping the loan and investing for growth works. Piyush writes in from a severe debt trap with home loans, personal loans and card dues far exceeding income; Monika urges him to involve family, liquidate assets and seek structured help through a debt resolution service. Anup, writing from Germany, wants to sell two residential plots and eventually buy a home in India; Monika points him toward Sections 54 and 54F, suggests consulting a CA on capital-gains planning, and outlines why a short-term loan followed by staggered asset sales may be practical.

Chapters:

(00:00 – 00:00 ) Why GDP Is Hot but Markets Are Cool

(00:00 – 00:00 ) Understanding the Drivers Behind India’s Surprising Q2 GDP

(00:00 – 00:00 ) EMI vs Investing: Navigating a Low-Interest Education Loan

(00:00 – 00:00 ) Escaping a Debt Trap: Practical Steps When Repayments Overwhelm

(00:00 – 00:00 ) Selling Plots or Taking a Loan: Smart Strategies for Buying a Home in India

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https://cleartax.in/s/section-54-capital-gains-exemption#h6

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