Why Metrics Fail, the Heisenberg Effect, and What Betting Teaches Us About Decision-Making
Description
When it comes to business, measurement is everything—or at least, that’s what we like to believe. In this episode of Now I Get It, I dive into the hidden traps of relying on metrics as tools for rewards or punishments and how doing so destroys their actual value. I also unpack how numbers get gamed, why this leaves businesses flying blind, and what the latest economic data reveals about our collective blind spots.
But the conversation doesn’t stop there. We explore the Heisenberg effect and how the very act of measurement changes the thing being measured—sometimes in subtle but important ways. And to ground this in real-world decision-making, I connect it all back to probability and betting, showing how the logic of a wager can help us sharpen our understanding of risk and make smarter, more informed choices in business and life.
In this episode, you will learn:
- (00:22 ) Why using metrics as rewards or punishments destroys their value
- (01:10 ) How the jobs report reveals deeper problems in measurement
- (01:49 ) What the Heisenberg principle teaches us about observation and change
- (02:47 ) The difference between interaction that alters a system and interaction that doesn’t
- (04:15 ) How probability reflects the information we already have, not the future
- (05:00 ) Why betting is the clearest metaphor for making decisions under uncertainty
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