Your brain doesn’t do reality – it does probability: And self-understanding is how we update the code.
Update: 2025-12-30
Description
Most of us walk through the world believing we're responding to what's actually happening.
But we're not.
We're responding to a model—a statistical best guess shaped by our history, our nervous system, and even the people who raised us.
Here's what neuroscience keeps showing us: you don't see reality directly. You see your brain's prediction of reality—built from everything you've experienced, learned, and inherited from generations before you.
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The trouble isn't that we have models.
We need them. The trouble is that we forget our perception is a model—and we mistake our predictions for reality itself.
On this week's Mindset Neuroscience Podcast, I sat down with Dr. Nicholas Wright—a neuroscientist who has gone from treating patients as a neurologist in London and Oxford to advising the Pentagon on nuclear strategy and decision-making under extreme pressure. His work explores how understanding our brains can help us prevent wars and, when necessary, navigate them more wisely.
Whether you're a general at the Pentagon deciding how to prevent nuclear war, or you're in your living room navigating a difficult conversation with someone you love—you're working with the same fundamental tool: the human brain. The neuroscience Nicholas uses to advise military leaders is the same neuroscience that governs how you and I show up in our relationships, our work, and our own growth.
Same system. Different stakes.
A Reflection
Our brains work with statistics and salience.
The data collected from observing the people and environments around us builds up statistical probabilities—algorithms that anticipate and prepare us for what might happen next.
This is adaptive when we're facing actual threats. But when we're unaware of how much our past plays a role in how we perceive our present, we may respond to situations as being more threatening than they actually are.
We react based more on our history than on what's occurring now.
The invitation isn't to eliminate your models. That's not really possible—or even ideal—in terms of how your brain functions.
The invitation is to recognize that you have them.
Once you see that you're operating from a model, you can start asking different questions: Is this model accurate? Is it serving me? What am I missing?
Just having that moment of awareness—that flash of curiosity about your own seeing—can be a powerful launching point.
Because self-understanding isn't just personally beneficial. It's how we begin to update the algorithms that shape how we move through the world. And in doing so, we don't just build better strategies for our own lives—we contribute to the collective wisdom of what's possible for all of us.
Listen to the full conversation [link]
With curiosity,
Stefanie
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