What is going on with, and what should we do about, the Chinese declaring extraterritorial exports controls on rare earth metals, which threaten to go way beyond semiconductors and also beyond rare earths into things like lithium and also antitrust investigations?

China also took other actions well beyond only rare Earths, including going after Qualcomm, lithium and everything else that seemed like it might hurt, as if they are confident that a cornered Trump will fold and they believe they have escalation dominance and are willing to use it.

China now has issued reassurances that it will allow all civilian uses of rare earths and not to worry, but it seems obvious that America cannot accept a Chinese declaration of extraterritorial control over entire world supply chains, even if China swears it will only narrowly use that power. In response, Trump has threatened massive tariffs and cancelled [...]

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Outline:

(01:20 ) Was This Provoked?

(02:43 ) What Is China Doing?

(03:37 ) How Is America Responding?

(05:58 ) How Is China Responding To America's Response?

(07:14 ) What To Make Of China's Attempted Reassurances?

(08:15 ) How Should We Respond From Here?

(09:37 ) It Looks Like China Overplayed Its Hand

(10:36 ) We Need To Mitigate China's Leverage Across The Board

(13:11 ) What About The Chip Export Controls?

(14:01 ) This May Be A Sign Of Weakness

(15:06 ) What Next?

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First published:

October 14th, 2025

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rTP5oZ3CDJR429Dw7/trade-escalation-supply-chain-vulnerabilities-and-rare-earth

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.