⚠️ The Great Rationalization of the AI Bubble
Description
Analysis of the current artificial intelligence market, arguing that while the technology itself is revolutionary, its financial mechanisms and valuation multiples exhibit clear signs of a speculative bubble. The report details the unprecedented capital expenditure (CapEx) by major "hyperscaler" tech companies, noting that this investment is driving significant, yet potentially "hollow," GDP growth. Furthermore, the analysis highlights severe physical and geopolitical constraints on sustained AI expansion, including an impending "Energy Wall" due to power capacity limits, and the extreme supply chain vulnerability posed by reliance on TSMC in Taiwan. Finally, the document examines systemic financial risks like "round-tripping" revenue and the brutal unit economics of inference, predicting a period of "Industrial Rationalization" with potential hard- or soft-crash scenarios between late 2025 and mid-2026.
United States
