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國際時事跟讀 Ep. L072: Powell Resists Trump Pressure Despite Rate Cut

Highlights 主題摘要

• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in nine months, responding to mounting concerns about America's weakening labor market conditions.
• Trump-appointed governors push for aggressive rate cuts while Chairman Powell advocates a measured approach to prevent unfinished inflation control efforts.
• Political tensions intensify as President Trump attempts to reshape Fed leadership through personnel changes and public pressure campaigns.

The Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate cut since December, lowering the benchmark rate by a quarter point to approximately 4.1% to support America's struggling job market. The decision comes amid rising unemployment and weakening hiring trends, with building permits falling for five consecutive months to their lowest level since April 2020. Fed officials acknowledged growing downside risks to employment while noting that inflation remains above their 2% target, creating a delicate balancing act for monetary policy.

聯邦準備理事會自去年十二月以來首次降息，將基準利率調降一碼至約4.1%，以支撐陷入困境的美國就業市場。此決定是在失業率上升和招聘趨勢疲軟的背景下做出，建築許可已連續五個月下滑至2020年4月以來最低水準。聯準會官員承認就業面臨的下行風險日益增加，同時指出通膨仍高於2%的目標水準，為貨幣政策帶來微妙的平衡挑戰。

Sharp divisions have emerged within the Fed's leadership over the appropriate pace of future rate cuts. Trump-appointed governors Stephen Miran and Michelle Bowman advocate for more aggressive reductions, with Miran becoming the lone dissenter from Wednesday's decision and favoring a larger half-point cut. They argue the Fed risks falling behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor conditions. However, other officials express caution about moving too quickly, particularly Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who emphasized the need for careful consideration given inflation's persistent elevation above target levels for over four years.

聯準會領導階層內部對於未來降息的適當步調出現嚴重分歧。川普任命的理事米蘭和波曼主張更積極的降息，米蘭成為週三決定的唯一異議者，傾向更大幅度的半碼降息。他們認為聯準會在處理惡化的就業狀況方面有落後的風險。然而，其他官員對過快行動表達謹慎態度，特別是芝加哥聯儲主席古爾斯比，他強調考慮到通膨已持續高於目標水準超過四年，需要謹慎考量。

Chairman Jerome Powell maintained his measured stance despite mounting political pressure from President Trump, who has repeatedly attacked the Fed chair personally, calling him a "numbskull" and questioning his mental capacity. Powell emphasized that cutting rates "too aggressively" could leave the inflation job unfinished and necessitate painful policy reversals later. He defended the Fed's independence during his press conference, stating officials never consider political factors in their decisions and dismissing political attacks as "cheap shots." Trump's interference campaign has included attempting to fire Powell and trying to strip the Fed board of his authority.

儘管面臨川普總統日益增加的政治壓力，主席鮑爾仍維持其謹慎立場，川普曾多次人身攻擊這位聯準會主席，稱他為「笨蛋」並質疑其心智能力。鮑爾強調「過於積極」降息可能導致通膨控制工作功虧一簣，日後須痛苦地扭轉政策。他在記者會上為聯準會的獨立性辯護，表示官員在決策時絕不考慮政治因素，並將政治攻擊斥為「無腦評論」。川普的干預行動包括試圖開除鮑爾並企圖剝奪聯準會理事會對其主席權威的支持。

Markets responded with initial optimism before turning volatile as investors weighed the Fed's cautious approach against escalating political uncertainties. Stock indices initially rallied with the Dow gaining 260 points, but later retreated as Powell's hawkish comments tempered expectations for aggressive future cuts. The dollar strengthened while Treasury yields fluctuated as traders processed the central bank's measured policy trajectory. Analysts increasingly worry that continued political interference could fundamentally undermine market confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain its century-old tradition of independence and effectiveness.

市場最初反應樂觀，但隨著投資人權衡聯準會謹慎作法與政治不確定性升溫的影響，走勢轉為波動。股指初步上漲，道瓊上漲260點，但隨著鮑爾的鷹派評論壓抑對未來積極降息的預期，指數後來回落。美元走強，而公債殖利率波動，交易員正在消化央行謹慎的政策軌跡。分析師日益擔心，持續的政治干預可能從根本上破壞市場對聯準會維持其百年獨立傳統和有效性能力的信心。

Keyword Drills 關鍵字

1. Struggling [adjective, having difficulty]: The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark rate by a quarter point to support America's struggling job market.
2. Dissenter [noun, one who disagrees with prevailing opinion]: Miran becoming the lone dissenter from Wednesday's decision and favoring a larger half-point cut.
3. Defended [verb, protected or justified]: He defended the Fed's independence during his press conference, stating officials never consider political factors in their decisions.
4. Trajectory [noun, the path followed by a process]: Treasury yields fluctuated as traders processed the central bank's measured policy trajectory.
5. Interference [noun, unwanted intervention]: Analysts worry that continued political interference could undermine market confidence in the Fed's independence.

Reference article:
1. https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-09-17-25
2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-trump-alarmed-and-tried-to-calm-ceos-with-his-new-100000-h-1b-visa-fee-142058595.html