On Friday January 3rd the House of Representatives will vote to select the next Speaker. On Polymarket the odds for whether Johnson will be out as Speaker before inauguration sit at 12%.

But a Substack post this morning by veteran reporter Chris Cillizza argued that these odds are too low and the current narrow Republican majority in the House makes it a real possibility that Johnson could face a substantial challenge.

We caught up with Chris for a chat on why he thinks the market is potentially overrating Johnson’s chances and what it means for the Speaker vote and Trump’s second term agenda.

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