For decades, the United States enjoyed what some called an exorbitant privilege—the ability to spend more than it earned without accumulating much debt to the rest of the world. But that privilege has ended. In a paper in the American Economic Review, authors Andrew Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote, and Fabrizio Perri found that the United States started accumulating significant liabilities to foreigners after the Great Recession. The researchers say that a surge in the value of US corporations relative to companies in other countries is the driver of this development. Due to large international capital flows in recent decades, foreign investors now own about 40 percent of US corporate equity, while US investors also hold a large amount of foreign companies in their portfolio. When American companies become more profitable and their stock prices soar, much of the gains flow overseas, without a corresponding flow to US investors from foreign companies, and this erodes the net foreign asset position of the United States. Atkeson recently spoke with Tyler Smith about how to interpret the US net foreign asset position and what its recent swings mean for American households.
US household income has grown significantly, but much of that growth seems to be at the very top of the distribution. Just how much inequality has increased and why it is growing is a topic of debate among economists. Part of the challenge lies in a seemingly basic question: what exactly counts as income? In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, author Matthieu Gomez disentangles the notions of income that economists frequently use and helps pinpoint what's really behind the rise in inequality. Gomez recently spoke with Tyler Smith about defining income, recent patterns in income inequality, and the best tools for reducing inequality.
Drug prices have become a hot-button issue in the United States, with politicians across the spectrum agreeing that American consumers pay too much for prescription medications. But bringing down drug prices raises fundamental economic challenges that affect innovation, access, and healthcare costs worldwide. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, author Margaret K. Kyle examines how different countries approach pharmaceutical pricing regulation and the lessons to be learned from international experience. Her work reveals that while the United States does pay significantly higher prices for drugs, the story is more nuanced than a simple comparison suggests. Kyle recently spoke with Tyler Smith about why economists generally support market solutions but make an exception for pharmaceuticals, how "pay-for-performance" contracts and subscription pricing models could bring down costs, and why simple solutions like copying other countries' prices might backfire.
Civil conflict has plagued much of Africa, with ethnically diverse countries experiencing particularly high rates of violence. Yet within these nations, patterns vary, leading to questions of why some groups rebel while others do not and why a given group rebels at certain times but not at other times. In a paper in the American Economic Review, author Eleonora Guarnieri untangles the factors that drive groups to rebel against their central government. She shows that when ethnicities become more culturally distant from those in power, their likelihood of engaging in civil conflict increases significantly. Her research suggests that conflicts arise as a result of ethnic favoritism in resource distribution and from fundamental disagreements over the types of public goods that central governments should provide. Guarnieri recently spoke with Tyler Smith about how she estimated the impact of cultural distance on civil conflict, and what her findings may mean for reducing violence across Africa's diverse societies.
The Clean Air Act has been an essential tool for reducing air pollution in the United States. But standard estimation methods may overstate its impact, according to a paper in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. Authors Lutz Sager and Gregor Singer reexamined the 2005 regulations targeting fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and found that improvements in air quality were closer to a 3 percent reduction in pollutants rather than the 10 percent suggested by conventional methods. However, they also found that the benefits from cleaner air may be larger than previous estimates suggested. Sager and Singer recently spoke with Tyler Smith about methods for properly estimating regulatory impacts that feature time trends and the implications for other measures based on estimates of air quality improvements.
The patchwork nature of America's public safety net has evolved over centuries, shaped by political winds and changing views on poverty. Understanding this complicated history may help shed light on the core tensions that continue to define debates about who deserves assistance and how it should be provided. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, author Christopher Howard explored how programs targeted at people with low incomes expanded from meager, local support in colonial times to the large-scale programs of today. He draws a distinction between two parallel systems: means-tested programs targeted specifically at low-income Americans and inclusive social insurance programs available to citizens across income levels. Howard recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the surprising political durability of some targeted programs, the dramatic success of Social Security in reducing elderly poverty, and the ongoing gaps in the public safety net that leave many Americans vulnerable.
Between 2006 and 2013, China’s government poured enormous resources into its shipbuilding industry through various subsidies—from providing free coastal land to offering financing assistance for ship buyers. But estimating the true scale and impact of these policies is challenging, as governments are often opaque about their industrial support programs. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, authors Panle Jia Barwick, Myrto Kalouptsidi, and Nahim Bin Zahur developed new methods for overcoming these measurement challenges and quantifying China’s support for its shipbuilding industry. Their research reveals which types of industrial policies work best, when they should be implemented, and why countries might pursue them even when the direct economic returns are low. These insights are particularly relevant today, as countries around the world are increasingly embracing industrial policies to support strategic sectors. Barwick and Kalouptsidi recently spoke with Tyler Smith about how they measured China's shipbuilding subsidies, why entry subsidies are particularly inefficient, and the importance of timing industrial support with market cycles
A growing number of US households hire advisers to assist with major financial decisions, such as planning life events or making portfolio choices for retirement. But some advisers exploit the inherent complexity of these decisions and the lack of sophistication of their clients to benefit themselves. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru show that about 7 percent of financial advisers have serious misconduct records, with rates reaching nearly 30 percent in some regions and firms. The authors explain why misconduct clusters in certain firms and geographic areas, particularly those with wealthy but less financially sophisticated populations. Importantly, the researchers also show that widely publicizing the names of the firms with the highest misconduct rates can lead to a substantial reduction in misconduct. Egan recently spoke with Tyler Smith about how the complex regulatory landscape of financial advising creates potential confusion for consumers and the best ways to clean up the industry.
In 2017, then-President Trump signed into law the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, which was arguably the largest corporate tax cut in US history. The TCJA significantly lowered the statutory rate that corporations pay in taxes and reshaped numerous tax rules. Proponents said it would boost US competitiveness on the international stage and juice business investment. But its overall effects are still being debated among economists. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, authors Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Owen Zidar, and Eric Zwick explored the current understanding of the TCJA, discussing its costs and benefits, as well as future policy implications. They argue that, contrary to what some proponents said, the tax cuts significantly reduced tax revenues. Zwick recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the legislation, who benefited the most from the bill, and whether provisions that are set to expire in the coming years should be retained.
A half a century ago, new high-yield varieties of crops were introduced to India, and it transformed the country's farming. This so-called “Green Revolution” significantly boosted agricultural output, allaying concerns about famine and food security. But it may have had some unanticipated consequences for long-term health outcomes. In a paper in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, authors Sheetal Sekhri and Gauri Kartini Shastry show that the areas where agricultural productivity accelerated the most also saw the highest rates of diabetes among men later in life. The authors argue that substantial changes to the diets of mothers and young children, in the form of higher levels of rice consumption, likely increased the risks of chronic diseases. The findings suggest that dietary diversification should accompany efforts to promote agricultural production. Sekhri recently spoke with Tyler Smith about how the Green Revolution changed diets in India and why it led to a rise in diet-related diseases like diabetes.
Qualitative accounts of anthropologists indicate that social structure plays an important role in how resources are shared in society. But quantitative evidence measuring the impacts of social organization on financial ties and transfers has been lacking. In a paper in the American Economic Review, authors Jacob Moscona and Awa Ambra Seck helped to fill that gap. They found that in East Africa, cash transfer policies had very different effects in cultures organized by kinship ties compared to cultures organized around age groups. The findings suggest that social organization has a deep impact on how resources spread through economies and ultimately shape inequality. Jacob Moscona recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the difference between kin-based societies and age-based societies and how they affect development policies.
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was launched at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in the hopes that it would keep businesses from laying off workers during government shutdown measures taken to contain the spread of the disease. Initial estimates of the direct impacts have been mixed, with some studies suggesting that the cost was hundreds of thousands of dollars per job saved. But a paper in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy looked beyond the labor market at a second order effect showing a clear and positive benefit. Authors Sumit Agarwal, Brent W. Ambrose, Luis A. Lopez, Xue Xiao found that the PPP reduced mortgage delinquencies for commercial real estate by roughly $36 billion in 2020 and likely played an important role in averting wider distress in financial markets. Ambrose recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the impact of PPP loans on the commercial real estate market and ways in which the program could have been better targeted.
In 2005, Austria’s most prominent far-right party proclaimed a “Third Turkish Siege of Vienna.” The campaign warned voters that, like their ancestors who were almost overrun by the Ottoman Empire four centuries ago, they were being culturally invaded by Muslims. The campaigners hoped to use long-past historical events to shape the behavior and sentiments of modern-day voters. But did it work? The strategy sparked a surge in the far-right’s vote share and a wave of anti-Muslim sentiment, according to a paper in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. The authors, Christian Ochsner and Felix Roesel, studied areas with ties to the historical trauma of the Sieges of Vienna and explained how political innovators reinvigorated latent xenophobic narratives that mobilized voters. Ochsner recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the recent political environment in Austria, the use of historical parallels, and the impact on Muslim minorities.
In 1993, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was passed with bipartisan support and near universal endorsement by economists. In hindsight, the economic costs and political consequences were far greater than many contemporary observers would have imagined. In a paper in the American Economic Review, authors Jiwon Choi, Ilyana Kuziemko, Ebonya Washington, and Gavin Wright found that US counties most exposed to NAFTA and Mexican import competition saw their total employment drop by roughly 6 percent compared to those with little exposure to the trade deal. However, workers in these communities didn’t respond by moving away to find better opportunities, and many, feeling betrayed by the Democratic party, embraced the Republican party instead. Choi and Wright recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the economic and political history of NAFTA and what economists have learned since its passage.
Since 2014, over 15,000 migrants have died or gone missing trying to make the voyage from the north coast of Africa to southern Europe. In response, European authorities have launched several search and rescue operations. There are few signs that migration along this deadly route is slowing down. In fact, efforts to curb migrant deaths may encourage even more migrants to make the perilous journey. In a paper in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, authors Claudio Deiana, Vikram Maheshri, and Giovanni Mastrobuoni found evidence that migrants and smugglers responded to search and rescue operations by attempting even more dangerous crossings. However, the authors still say that such operations are likely beneficial to migrants on the whole. Maheshri recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the impact of search and rescue operations on the market for smuggling along the Central Mediterranean Route and what policymakers should do to reduce migrant deaths.
Timely publication of research in peer-reviewed journals is critical for economists seeking tenure and important for audiences looking for high-quality, trustworthy studies. But in recent decades, there has been an increasing concern that the pace of publishing in economics is too slow. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Literature, authors Aboozar Hadavand, Daniel S. Hamermesh, and Wesley W. Wilson analyzed the publication lag in top economics journals and compared it to other fields. They found that economics publishing takes nearly twice as long as comparable fields in the other social sciences. However, Hamermesh says that some innovative journals, such as AER: Insights, are taking steps to shorten the time between submission and publication. He recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the pace of publishing in economics, how to fix it, and some advice for young economists trying to publish their work.
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of vaccines, but it also underscored the reservations and low take-up rates among US citizens. In a paper in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, authors Marcella Alsan and Sarah Eichmeyer tested several approaches to improving messages aimed at boosting vaccine demand. Their main finding was that messages delivered by laypersons were more effective than those delivered by persons perceived to be doctors. Eichmeyer says that video messages delivered by experts who were of the same race or were perceived as empathetic can be effective for some types of viewers, but for the most hesitant, ordinary citizens may be the best positioned to dispel myths about vaccines. She recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the design of her and Alsan’s experiment and what their results imply about vaccine messaging.
In the middle of the day on Friday, March 10, 2023, bank regulators swiftly shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), arguably averting a wider panic. Compared to past financial crises, it was not especially economically significant, but it stands out as an important, illustrative example of the economics of banking. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, author Andrew Metrick explains the causes behind SVB’s failure and how the government responded. He says that understanding the collapse of SVB is a stepping stone to making sense of more complicated financial crises such as the Global Financial Crisis. Metrick recently spoke with Tyler Smith about why Silicon Valley Bank failed and what policymakers can do to prevent financial crises.
Before Silicon Valley became a byword for innovation, Route 128, outside of Boston, was America's technology highway, connecting the country’s premier technology companies and research facilities. However, this first American high-tech cluster likely would not have developed as it did without one of the biggest shocks to federal R&D funding in US economic history. In a paper in the American Economic Review, authors Daniel P. Gross and Bhaven N. Sampat explain how a World War II research effort jump-started innovation hubs like Route 128 across the United States. Gross and Sampat recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the history of R&D funding in the United States, and the lessons policymakers can take from it.