Cooper is joined by Kevin Murray to review the OSU game, with Eric away this week. (1:45) Review of the OSU game start. Diving into the overall themes, including the lucky breaks the Irish got with Buckeye injuries and the impressive defensive performance. CJ Stroud started slow but showed Heisman caliber throws down the line. (9:03) Notre Dame's offensive gameplan review. The Irish never truly threatened to win the game because they did not have a plan in place that allowed them to score. The Irish sported a putrid rushing effort and an underutilized passing attack, hampered by an offensive line that played decent in pass pro and was overmatched in run game, especially on run plays that went lateral across the field. (16:10) Review of issues with coaching calls and some blunders in decision making by the Irish staff, as well as discussion of cowardly punts by the Buckeyes. The Irish seemed to be caught between wanting to burn clock and wanting to score in moments, and the predictable result was to not score enough to be truly competitive on the offensive side. (34:55) Marshall preview. ND has a distinct talent advantage, and the Herd should absolutely not be Thundering. In the battle of We are Marshall vs Rudy, Sean Astin should emerge with an easy win. If you enjoy the podcast, like and subscribe, and leave a 5* review! If you have questions for us, send them to our twitter or leave them in your reviews. Links: Twitter: https://twitter.com/ND_FB_Analytics Substack: https://shakedownthenumbers.substack.com/ 3rd and Gold: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeZWbNPxza63gjjNFxwXsneJHjb-YyaGORBD63rlZjulUZx0g/viewform
It's game week! Cooper and Eric preview the showdown with the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe. (0:00) 3rd and Gold, our pledge drive partnered with Brady Quinn's 3rd and Goal Foundation, is back! Pledge your preferred amount for Irish players or team milestones, all proceeds from these pledges will be donated to the 3rd and Goal Foundation to help veterans with disabilities and to provide education to veterans. Link below! (2:10) Ohio State's offensive preview. The Buckeyes are an elite unit despite losing two first round WR (Wilson, Olave) and two veteran OL (Petite-Frere, Munford) to the NFL draft. Led by Heisman favorite CJ Stroud, likely Biletnikoff finalist Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Doak Walker watch list member TreVeyon Henderson, the Buckeyes have the talent to lead the P5 in scoring. Marvin Harrison Jr, Julian Fleming and Emeka Egbuka will present matchup problems for the Irish secondary and LB. (9:50) Notre Dame offense discussion. The Irish have a recent history of being boat-raced offensively by elite offenses, most notably future national champions 2018 Clemson and 2020 Alabama. With this OSU team looking to be at the level of those programs, how can Notre Dame maximize their roster talent to overcome the wider talent deficit? The guys also discuss what first-year starter Tyler Buchner brings to the table. (17:15) Notre Dame defense preview. The Irish boast a formidable front 7, with a defensive line that is among the top in the country and an experienced and talented LB corps. The Irish have a number of ballhawk safeties, but the corner room leaves a lot to be desired after Cam Hart. Tariq Bracy has had a fantastic summer, and the Irish need the presumptive Nickel to shine. Clarence Lewis has hit moments, but inconsistency plagued his 2021 season, most notably in the Fiesta Bowl. With the scoring ability of this OSU defense, the Irish will need to generate pressure and likely turnovers if they want to limit the Buckeye scoring machine enough to give the offense a shot to win. (20:55) Game predictions. Cooper and Eric give their score predictions and discuss the outlook for what different outcomes likely mean for the Irish this year. This also leads into a wider discussion of talent disparity in College Football and how Maruc Freeman is moving the envelope in that regard for the Fighting Irish. If you enjoy the podcast, like and subscribe, and leave a 5* review! If you have questions for us, send them to our twitter or leave them in your reviews. Links: Twitter: https://twitter.com/ND_FB_Analytics Substack: https://shakedownthenumbers.substack.com/ 3rd and Gold: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeZWbNPxza63gjjNFxwXsneJHjb-YyaGORBD63rlZjulUZx0g/viewform
(2:25) Season outlook from hosts Cooper Klaus, Kevin Murray and Eric Thomas. With a new Head Coach in Marucs Freeman, a new Quarterback in Tyler Buchner, and significant staff turnover, the 2022 FIghting Irish have more uncertainty about the identity of the team than any Notre Dame team since 2017. (5:30) During the offseason, Cooper built a game predictions model to calculate the chance for teams to win each of their respective games based on ELO rankings, efficiency rankings on offense/defense, team composite talent and other factors. Cooper breaks down the details of how this model operates, and the guys discuss some of their takeaways pertaining to both the Irish and their Opponents from the generated data. The hosts dive into the opener in Columbus, and predict whether Cooper will be a sad man in the stands of the Shoe. (14:30) Tyler Buchner talk. (NOTE: Buchner was not formally announced as the starting Quarterback at time of recording.) As a Freshman, TB12 showed glimpses of explosive play capability but also demonstrated some rust and lack of comfort leading the offense. The hosts discuss what they liked from his freshman campaign, where the improvement should come and where they want to see the offense grow around him. The hosts dive into the Clemson game and talk through what to watch for in Buchner's development versus arguably the most talented and deep defensive line in the country. (26:00) BYU and USC talk. BYU is a veteran team with a talented Quarterback in Jaren Hall, an experienced OL and a mentality that should make them impervious to the temptations of Sin City; a perfect storm for a Shamrock Series matchup in Las Vegas. Sportsbooks at large and Cooper's model have this game being potentially much closer than any Irish fan would like to see, and the hosts dive into how the Cougars match up with the Irish. USC hired offensive innovator and brisket butcher Lincoln Riley away from the Sooners, and have seen a large contingent of talent roll into town this offseason, adding star Quarterback Caleb Williams from OU, 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison from Pitt, and the dynamic Runningback Travis Dye from Oregon. The hosts discuss the difficulty in predicting a team with this much turnover and what to expect from the challenge from USC, as well as how the Irish match up versus the new look Trojans. (32:00) Record predictions! The gang offers up their predictions for the first year of the Freeman era, balancing the known factors such as the strength ND has in the trenches or the limited depth at WR with the unknown of a first time head coach, a new staff and a young, inexperienced Quarterback. (35:40) 3rd and Gold! Working with ND legend Brady Quinn's 3rd and Goal Foundation, we have designed a system that turns prop bets into pledges to donate to the welfare of Veterans. Bet on your favorite players to perform and the NDFB Stats and Analytics team will follow up with links to donate based on your pledges. Pledges that hit will also give listeners the chance to win prizes in our giveaways this season. For the Blue & Gold game we gave away a custom ND Football Jersey, and during the season we will look to give away more unique items to further drive donations to the 3rd and Goal Foundation. To learn more about 3rd and Goal, visit https://www.3rdandgoalfoundation.org/.
Cooper and Eric are back this week to try and make sense of what we saw in the Marshall game and where Notre Dame goes from here. (1:37) A conversation about Notre Dame's offense and choosing 1 yard and a cloud of dust instead of a not elite but solid passing attack despite the disadvantages at the QB and WR positions. Continues with a discussion on playcalling and running the ball on 2nd and long. (10:32) How the Irish can tease out more efficiency from the offense without asking for rapid improvement from their players. (16:05) Previewing Drew Pyne as Notre Dame's new starting quarterback, the positives, negatives, and what he needs to do to match Tyler Buchner's production. How can Tommy Rees and the offense make his life easier. (29:28) Why your opinion of Notre Dame should be lower than it was to start the season but not fully cratered at this point. (31:36) The defense is taking a lot of flack, why some criticism is deserved but most of it is pointed at the wrong target. (36:50) What should Notre Dame do over the next 10 games in order to keep this season from falling off the tracks.
Cooper and Jack welcome on former Notre Dame wide receiver and current Baltimore Raven Miles Boykin! After a quick intro at (1:30)... (2:30) Boykin discussed the most recent NFL season including adjusting to the league's COVID protocol and the Ravens' Thanksgiving game being postponed. (5:41) He then broke down how Notre Dame's offensive style impacts the wide receivers, and how Notre Dame wide receivers often have to wait their turn to get on the field. (9:14) The crew then switch gears to discussing the Ravens' embrace of analytics, and how it helps them prepare for specific late game situations and fourth downs. (16:02) Boykin gives an inside look at the NFL Combine (an event he dominated with a 4.42 40 yard dash and 98th percentile vertical jump with a 99th percentile broad jump) and goes into specifics with a behind the scenes look at the greatest scouting event in sports that's not as much fun as you might think. (24:51) They finish up looking ahead to the next Ravens and Notre Dame seasons, and what the two teams can do to break through to win titles. (30:17) Cooper and Jack finish up with a quick discussion of the interview, and discuss some future projects they're looking forward to unveiling on the twitter account @ND_FB_Analytics.
After a hiatus Shake Down The Numbers is back on the air to breakdown the excellent hiring of Marcus Freeman. (1:00) They begin by praising the hire, and discuss how landing Freeman over other quality suitors is a sign of how far the program has come under Brian Kelly. (4:32) Cooper then breaks down his new opponent strength adjusted EPA numbers (statistics nerd warning 4:32-5:50). (5:50) After unveiling the new model, they use the opponent adjusted stats to compare Freeman's run at Cincinnati directly to Lea's at Notre Dame. (15:40) They finish up with a quick discussion of Freeman's impact on Notre Dame recruiting, and tease a special episode of Shake Down The Numbers dropping next week with an exciting Irish guest.
The Irish season is over after a somewhat disappointing performance in Arlington against a truly special Alabama squad. The team will now need to figure out what went wrong and learn for future seasons, which is what Cooper and Jack attempt on this show. (0:47) The pair began with Alabama's offense, describing how Alabama moved with such ease and trying to determine whether a talent mismatch or schematic shortcomings caused most of the Irish problems. (8:54) They then moved into the Irish offense, discussing their conservative game plan and why they weren't able to hang with Alabama's high flying offense. (21:17) They finish up with a brief discussion of where Notre Dame goes from here (though this will get its own full episode at a later date) and sign off from a great first season of Shake Down The Numbers. EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (11:29) Jack did not like the Irish decision to punt on 4th and 5 down 7-0 in the first quarter
Cooper and Jack are back and its win or go home for the Irish in Arlington at the Rose Bowl. (1:28) The pair discuss Notre Dame's offense, and why the Irish will need to throw frequently to have a chance to keep up. (10:22) They move into Alabama's offense and how Notre Dame's defense even mustering a few stops is all you can ask for in a game like this. (16:43) They finish up with some predictions that most Irish fans would likely prefer to not see come true (thankfully for you, these are the same guys that called Javon McKinley a blocking receiver). EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (15:07) In another of a long stream of analogies Colin Cowherd would be proud of, Cooper compares Kyren Williams and Ian Book to Dwight Howard and LeBron James.
The Irish have taken their first loss in the Shake Down The Numbers Era (which is what history will call this time period someday) in ugly fashion against Clemson. While it appeared the Irish did not have the talent to keep up with the Tigers, Jack and Cooper believe Notre Dame could have at least put up a far tougher fight with a better game plan. (1:21) The pair discuss Clemson putting the ball in Trevor Lawrence's hands and using play action to pull Irish defenders off the line of scrimmage. (9:33) They then contrast this with Notre Dame's ball control strategy that left Ian Book without a fair chance. (18:27) They finish up by breaking down the lessons the coaching staff need to learn before the Alabama game. EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (9:42) Cooper has a message for those who have accused him of advocating for a "Madden Offense" that would not work in real life.
The Irish will be back in action on Saturday after some time off, taking on Trevor Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game to remain undefeated and clinch a CFP berth. (0:49) Cooper and Jack begin by breaking down the injuries to Clemson's defense. (3:30) They discuss the Irish play calling they hope to see in this game, and how to potentially improve the run game from the first matchup. (10:24) They move on to Clemson's offense who bring a surprisingly average run game but a transcendentally good quarterback to the table. (15:45) They finish up by predicting the outcome, leading to the pair's first split decision of the season.
Jack and Cooper begin the ramp up to Clemson II with a regular season analytics recap. (1:07) They begin with the passing game by praising Ian Book for his growth as a passer and his improvement as the season has gone on. They talk about Javon McKinley and Michael Mayer's emergences and what that means for the future of the program. (12:42) They then discuss why the team's running game has not been as good as some Irish fans believe, and what the team could do to make it more effective. (19:12) They briefly discuss Kyren Williams' pass blocking ability before turning to the defense's elite season (21:33) and finish up by discussing defensive coordinator Clark Lea's likely future as a head coach (27:22). EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (10:46) Continuing his legendary run of player comparisons, Cooper compares Avery Davis (stylistically) to Michael Thomas.
The Irish have finished their second perfect regular season in three years with a 45-21 win over Syracuse. (1:01) Jack and Cooper start by examining the Irish offense and explain their in-game twitter position on the team's run game. (8:23) They move on to the passing game and shower praise upon Javon McKinley while wondering what role Avery Davis will play in the ACC Championship Game. (14:22) They finish up by talking through Syracuse's offense and why there is no need to worry about the Irish run defense despite Syracuse posting gaudy rushing yard totals.
With the Wake Forest game cancelled Notre Dame is just a win over Syracuse away from a perfect regular season. Cooper and Jack think that the Irish are almost a lock in this one, and they start (1:10) with breaking down Syracuse's defense and what they hope to see from Notre Dame's play callers. (7:15) Before jumping into Syracuse's offense, Cooper gives more context to Pro Football Focus' grading scale and why he uses it on this show. (8:06) They then break down Syracuse's abysmal offense, and why Syracuse's offense against Notre Dame's defense is one of the biggest mismatches one could design across college football. (13:35) They wrap up a short episode with predictions and update listeners on the upcoming podcast schedule in advance of the ACC Title Game.
The Irish are a win over hapless Syracuse away from an undefeated season after an impressive win against No. 17 North Carolina. (1:00) Cooper and Jack start by discussing Clark Lea's shutdown of the UNC rushing game, and how that put Sam Howell in a more difficult position. (3:15) They then get into UNC's passing game, and how the Irish front four made Howell's job impossible after the first two drives. (9:10) The pair move onto Ian Book and the Irish offense, giving credit to Javon McKinley and asking if there is even a role for Tommy Tremble in the passing game anymore. (15:38) They then talk about Kyren Williams and how running him into loaded boxes creates games like this one where Williams runs effectively but run plays remain inefficient. EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (4:25) Cooper wonders if it's fair to call Sam Howell a future first overall pick as Jack reminds him that label was once applied to Irish legend DeShone Kizer.
After a Guitar Hero microphone gone awry forced Jack and Cooper to scrap their already recorded UNC preview and start over, the duo did their first night recording to get Irish fans the stats they need for this weekend's matchup with UNC. (1:30) The pair began by discussing Sam Howell and why he is the best quarterback the Irish will face this regular season, as well as some keys to slowing the UNC passing offense down. (6:07) They then discuss UNC running back Jevonte Williams and breakdown perhaps the best rushing offense in the country. (9:51) They then move over to Notre Dame's offense, and why UNC's abysmal run defense does not mean the Irish should take the game out of Ian Book's hands. (19:34) They finish up by making predictions for what could be a nerve wracking game for Irish fans nationwide. EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (7:21) To really put an exclamation point on the high number of fumbled words and stuttering caused by the late night recording, Jack drops his microphone off his desk and decides to keep going with his take
After a brief bye week hiatus Cooper and Jack return to break down last weekend's matchup with Boston College. (1:18) The pair discuss another Heisman worthy performance from Ian Book, and why his EPA stats should have been even higher if not for costly fumbles by his teammates. (4:43) They then talk Irish pass catchers and heap more praise on Javon McKinley, Ben Skowronek, and Avery Davis for separating themselves from the pack in the wide receiver room. (9:24) They then ponder why Notre Dame is not running the football as well it did the first two weeks of the season and whether there is reason to be alarmed over Kyren Williams' new fumbling habit. (13:09) They finish up by breaking down Phil Jurkovec's performance and a good showing from Notre Dame's deep passing defense even in a game where they gave up thirty-one points. EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (7:25) Jack asks Cooper to clarify his comparison of Notre Dame to the Dallas Cowboys by asking if Avery Davis is more of a Michael Gallup or a CeeDee Lamb
The undefeated Irish are headed to Chestnut Hill to take on the Boston College Eagles and former Irish quarterback Phil Jurkovec. (0:58) Jack and Cooper start with Jurkovec and why the Eagles are one of the most pass happy squads in college football. (6:37) The pair then discuss Boston College's running game and why the Irish defense is going to have no problem stopping the Eagles from getting their ground game going, as well as identifying a sleeper Boston College receiver to watch for a breakout game. (8:54) They then move onto the Irish offense, and why Louisville's defensive success against the Irish has changed defensive strategy against the Irish offense, creating opportunities for the pass game while hampering the run game. (15:49) They finish by making predictions that are more favorable for the Irish than their much maligned Clemson picks from a week ago. EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (11:18) Jack forgets there were games other than Clemson this season.
After arguably Notre Dame's biggest win since 1993, Jack and Cooper have the stats behind this momentous achievement in Notre Dame football history. (1:17) The pair breaks down Ian Book's incredible play and discuss which pass catchers stepped up to help Book play such a great game. (8:10) They then move on to the Irish rushing game and why the Irish offense could have been even more effective if Tom Rees had let Book cook just bit more. (11:34) They breakdown how the Clemson rushing game actually fared even worse than Notre Dame's, and dissect a spectacular showing from DJ Uiagalelei. (16:16) They finish up by discussing what the game means for Notre Dame's program, adjustments that need to be made going forward, and praise the Irish squad for their resilience in the face of small odds late in the game.
After months of anticipation, it is finally Clemson week in South Bend. (0:48) Your favorite duo starts by breaking down what kind of play calling they want to see and which offensive weapons will needs to have big games to be victorious. (7:40) The pair then breakdown Chris Tyree's usage in the offense, and why he is getting so much work compared to previous 5 star freshman skill players that Brian Kelly has mostly ignored. (10:04) They then focus on how the Irish defense stacks up against new quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and why Irish fans shouldn't be sure this will slow down Clemson's offense. (19:20) The crew finishes up by offering some predictions for the game and briefly discuss why this could be a win that changes perceptions of Notre Dame's program nationwide. EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (10:38) Jack makes an abysmal effort at pronouncing Uiagalelei and will henceforth be calling him DJ for everyone's benefit.
Cooper and Jack recap the final matchup for the Irish before the much awaited Clemson game. (1:19) The pair dissect Ian Book's performance and discuss whether the offense is explosive enough to hang with elite teams. (6:45) They then turn their attention to the Irish run game and discussed which wide receivers proved the most to them. (11:50) They finish up discussing Notre Dame's defensive performance and how worried Irish fans should be about the team's performance against deep passing. EPISODE HIGHLIGHT: (9:00) Cooper celebrates a perfect prediction that Avery Davis would be used to fill the void left by Braden Lenzy's injury.