The Freight Debate

Freight contracts keep breaking because they weren’t built for volatility.Eloisa Tovee sits down with Matthew Gore, Partner at HFW, to unpack why so many agreements fail under pressure and what it really takes to make them hold.From “gentlemen’s agreements” and glorified rate sheets to the rise of index-linked deals, they trace how contracting has evolved and where it still breaks. They discuss the legal gray zones that leave shippers exposed, the surge in hidden surcharges, and why both sides are chasing certainty in a market that refuses to stay still.Whether you’re entering tender season or rethinking your risk strategy for 2026, this episode gives you the playbook to build contracts that survive volatility instead of snapping under it.🔔 Love the podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe and rate us!📧 Want to work with us? Learn more at xeneta.com 

What will shape ocean freight in 2026?Hosts, Phil Hennessy and Emily Stausbøll, share key findings from Xeneta’s Ocean Freight Outlook 2026, explaining how trade patterns, shipping capacity, and global demand are evolving.They discuss the recent 11% decline in China–U.S. exports alongside a 5.8% increase in overall global exports, plus what the delivery of 10 million TEU in new capacity could mean for supply and pricing.Whether you’re planning 2026 budgets, reviewing contract strategies, or keeping pace with market data, this episode gives you the insights to make informed decisions in a changing freight environment.🎙️ This episode was recorded pre-Summit. Want the latest 2026 Ocean Outlook insights? Join the upcoming webinar and get the report before everyone else: xeneta.com/events/webinar/2026-ocean-outlook 🔔 Love the podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe and rate us!📧 Want to work with us? Learn more at xeneta.com

Shippers who wait until tender season are leaving money on the table.Phil Hennessy sat down with Peter Sundara Swamickannu to examine why procurement can’t be a once-a-year exercise. They break down how real-time data gives shippers credibility in negotiations, why budgets built on last year’s averages are doomed to fail, and how smart teams capture savings by acting outside the traditional tender window.They also explore the hidden risks of chasing the cheapest rates, the importance of factoring in transit reliability, and how scenario planning around tariffs and disruptions can create a lasting competitive edge. For procurement leaders navigating volatile markets, this episode makes the case for year-round strategy as the only way to stay ahead.🔔 Love the podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe and rate us!📧 Want to work with us? Learn more at xeneta.com

Why did freight rates suddenly spike in September?Hosts, Phil Hennessey and Emily Stausbøll, break down the surprising surge on the Transpacific trade and why it caught so many shippers off guard. They unpack what fueled the unexpected jump and what it tells us about the fragile balance between global trade lanes.From the “dance” between Transpacific and Far East–North Europe rates to the way carriers use short-term spikes in tender negotiations, this episode gives shippers the tools to separate noise from signal. Whether you’re budgeting for 2026 contracts or just trying to understand the latest market whiplash, you’ll walk away with the context and data you need to make smarter calls in an unpredictable freight environment.🔔 Love the podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe and rate us!📰 Check out this blog for deeper dives and data on everything we cover: https://www.xeneta.com/blog/ocean-container-shipping-rates-can-spike-unexpectedly-use-data-and-intelligence-to-understand-why-and-take-action 📅This week in freight article:https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-importers-and-exporters-fret-over-port-fees-on-chinese-ships-da9f6f53 📧 Want to work with us? Learn more at xeneta.com

Phil Hennessy and Peter Sand break down the complex world of freight surcharges and why they remain one of the most frustrating parts of global shipping. From surcharges that don’t always match trade routes, to peak season fees that appear even when it isn’t peak season, they explore how carriers create, label, and defend these extra costs. The discussion highlights real examples of shippers paying vastly different amounts for the same surcharge, how “all in rates” can look very different depending on the mix of base rates and add-ons, and why optionality in contracts is critical for maintaining leverage. Whether you are negotiating your next tender or simply trying to understand what you should and should not be paying, this episode of The Freight Debate gives you the insight needed to navigate the surcharge game with more confidence.🔔 Love the podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe and rate us!📰 Check out this blog for deeper dives and data on everything we cover:https://www.xeneta.com/blog/confused-about-ocean-container-shipping-surcharges-youre-not-alone?hs_preview=EYBhzwSm-195195475992 📅This week in freight article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ocean-shipping-rates-sink-as-importers-balk-at-trade-upheaval-4dc3d1e6📧 Want to work with us? Learn more at xeneta.com

Are shippers finally gaining the upper hand in negotiations?Phil Hennessy and Emily Stausbøll analyze the widening spread between spot and long-term rates, the lessons learned from pandemic volatility, and the trade-offs that define today’s contracts. From record-low backhaul rates to index-linked agreements designed to prevent rolled cargo, they examine how risk and reliability are reshaping procurement strategies.They unpack why volatility has become the industry’s new normal, how carriers and shippers are adapting across different trades, and what it all means for 2026 budgets. Whether you’re planning tenders, managing supply chain risk, or preparing for Q4 talks, this conversation delivers the insight needed to navigate an uncertain market.🔔 Love the podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe and rate us!📰 Check out this blog for deeper dives and data on everything we cover:https://www.xeneta.com/blog/tendering-in-times-of-volatility-how-can-ocean-container-shippers-achieve-financial-savings-and-supply-chain-resilience 📧 Want to work with us? Learn more at xeneta.com

In this episode of The Freight Debate, host Tom Moffett, Principal Product Manager at Xeneta, sits down with Wenwen Zhang, Xeneta’s Air Freight Development and Analysis Lead, to decode the complex landscape of modern air freight. If you’re navigating the air freight market in 2025, air freight pricing and air freight volatility are two critical forces you can’t afford to ignore.Air freight pricing and air freight volatility have surged as global tensions, pandemic aftershocks, and rising e-commerce reshape the rules. Wenwen brings her deep expertise to explain what’s really moving the market—from post-COVID supply constraints to the explosion of cross-border e-commerce driven by players like Temu and Shein. Together, Tom and Wenwen explore how these trends affect both shippers and carriers—and why the market is more data-driven (and unpredictable) than ever before.Key insights you’ll learn:How COVID turned air freight into a supply-driven rollercoasterWhy passenger belly capacity plays a bigger role than most realizeHow U.S.–China tariffs and the de minimis rule are reshaping global flowsThe ripple effect of ocean freight disruptions on air freight strategyWhy real-time data is now essential for procurement decisionsWenwen unpacks how the 2025 tariff resets and the removal of de minimis exemptions have caused dramatic shifts in shipping volumes and rate spikes across critical trade lanes. With nearly half of certain routes driven by e-commerce, minor policy changes have had outsized impacts on air freight capacity, load factor, and ultimately pricing.You’ll also learn how forwarders and shippers are reacting—with many changing strategies overnight. Wenwen and Tom analyze dynamic load factor and procurement trends using Xeneta’s unique combination of shipper, forwarder, and airline rate data. The conversation brings clarity to what’s happening beneath the surface and how to read the signals in near-real time.The episode also tackles the blurred line between ocean and air freight markets. With Red Sea disruptions and unpredictable lead times, shippers are switching modes faster than ever—creating new opportunities (and challenges) for those who are agile.If you're in procurement, logistics, or supply chain management, this episode gives you a 360° view of how to read the market, time your contracts, and leverage data for better margin control.Discover how to think ahead in a market where everything changes overnight.

Will freight rates drop to pre–Red Sea crisis levels?Phil Hennessy and Emily Stausbøll break down the numbers, capacity trends, and market forces shaping the answer. From the $8,000 post-crisis peak to today’s $200-above-baseline reality, they explore how carrier decisions, shifting demand, and geopolitical factors are pushing rates toward 2019 territory.They unpack why rates climbed in the first place, how overcapacity is driving the current slide, and what shippers should watch for in the months ahead. Whether you’re tracking spot rates, negotiating long-term contracts, or just trying to predict the next big move in global shipping, this conversation gives you the context you need to make informed calls.🔔 Love the podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe and rate us!📰 Check out this blog for deeper dives and data on everything we cover: https://www.xeneta.com/blog/will-plummeting-ocean-container-freight-rates-drop-to-pre-red-sea-crisis-levels 📧 Want to work with us? Learn more at xeneta.com

In this essential episode of The Freight Debate, host Rajesh Bhol sits down with two industry powerhouses: Christian Pederson, Global Head of Ocean Contract Products at A.P. Moller-Maersk, and Patrik Olstad Berglund, Co-founder and CEO of Xeneta, to unpack the freight industry's evolving relationship with indexing, contract standardization, and market volatility. If you've been following recent supply chain developments, you'll know that freight indexing and contract volatility are two of the most talked-about issues in 2025.Freight indexing and contract volatility aren't just buzzwords anymore—they're key levers in navigating today's unpredictable global supply chain. In this episode, we explore how unprecedented disruptions over the past five years, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical instability, have exposed deep flaws in fixed-rate ocean contracts. Christian and Patrik share candid insights about the cyclical nature of the shipping industry and how trust and transparency can be re-established through innovative, data-driven contract mechanisms.Key topics include:The case for index-linked contracts and how they help manage extreme market volatilityWhy traditional RFQs (Requests for Quotations) are increasingly seen as outdatedHow shippers and carriers alike are pushing for flexible, enforceable agreementsThe role of financial risk hedging through futures and swapsTransparency as a catalyst for efficiency and long-term partnershipsChristian, representing a legacy carrier's perspective, explains why Maersk has leaned into indexing as a scalable solution. Meanwhile, Patrik brings the lens of data analytics and technology to the table, arguing for standardization across the industry. Both leaders converge on the point that the current system—plagued by contractual non-adherence and massive rate fluctuations—is unsustainable.You'll learn why there's growing consensus that decoupling physical delivery from financial risk mechanisms is a best practice adopted from commodity markets like oil and electricity. The discussion also explores how service predictability for shippers must align with revenue predictability for carriers—a mutual goal that can only be achieved through transparent, index-based agreements.Additionally, the episode explores:How NVOCCs (Non-Vessel Operating Common Carriers) are innovating with daily indexesPractical challenges in implementing index-linked contractsThe human factor: changing mindsets within traditional procurement processesWith both guests advocating for a standardized, transparent, and data-centric future, this episode serves as a roadmap for supply chain professionals looking to future-proof their freight strategies.Whether you're a logistics leader, supply chain analyst, or procurement specialist, this episode delivers high-impact insights that are as actionable as they are visionary.Listen to learn how your organization can stay resilient in a world where volatility is the only constant.Timestamp Topics[00:00 - 02:00] What is a perfect freight index?[02:00 - 06:00] Why market volatility broke old shipping contracts[06:00 - 10:00] Why trust is collapsing between shippers and carriers[10:00 - 14:00] Budget predictability vs. real flexibility[14:00 - 18:00] Why one contract can't do two jobs[18:00 - 22:00] What COVID taught the industry about pricing behavior[22:00 - 27:00] What makes a good freight index (and what doesn’t)[27:00 - 32:00] Why transparency doesn’t kill differentiation[32:00 - 38:00] Simple steps to implement index-based deals[38:00 - 46:00] Will volatility stay or go? Here's what's coming next

Tariffs and backhaul rates dominate global shipping news again this week as the ripple effects of the EU-US trade deal and continued uncertainty in US-China negotiations drive new challenges in the container shipping market. Tariffs and backhaul rates may sound like niche topics, but in this episode of The Freight Debate, hosts Phil Hennessey and Emily Stausbøll, Senior Shipping Analyst at Xeneta, reveal why they’re at the center of every serious logistics discussion in 2025.Phil and Emily break down the latest EU-US tariff announcements: a 15% tariff now replacing the 10% under the truce agreement. Emily explains why, even though it’s not the worst-case 30% or 50% floated earlier, this development is far from “good news.” Instead, it's the beginning of a new normal in transatlantic trade where importers must decide how much of the added cost to absorb and how much to pass on to consumers.They also analyze the ongoing US-China negotiations in Stockholm and explore the potential 90-day extension of tariff pauses. Drawing parallels with the 2019 trade war and its impact on bulk commodities like soybeans, Emily reflects on how energy and agricultural trade deals are often used as political tools that have deep implications for both front-haul and backhaul shipping markets.The conversation then turns to backhaul rates—the unsung dynamics of container logistics. Emily shares fresh Xeneta data showing some backhaul trades hitting record low or even negative rate levels when accounting for terminal handling costs. She explains how container repositioning pressures, particularly between China and the US, continue to distort trade balance ratios and drop backhaul profitability for carriers.Listeners will also learn how reefer container dynamics diverge from dry container trends, and why exporters must now re-evaluate their strategies in light of reciprocal tariffs. The team offers tactical advice for shippers on how to leverage backhaul volumes during procurement conversations, especially when negotiating front-haul contracts.Whether you're managing a supply chain or just curious about how tariffs affect your Amazon order, this episode gives you expert insights you won’t get in the headlines. Phil and Emily also plug Xeneta’s freight rate intelligence platform and explain how customers can use real-time visibility across trade lanes to challenge market assumptions and make smarter shipping decisions.Tune in as we tie together tariffs, trade wars, and transatlantic trends in one of the most practical and relevant episodes of The Freight Debate yet.Learn more at: https://www.xeneta.com/

In this episode of The Freight Debate, host Philip Hennessey sits down with Xeneta Senior Analyst Emily Stausbøll to unpack the current state of global shipping and its increasingly unpredictable pricing landscape. With the return of tariff volatility and collapsing freight demand on key routes, tariff volatility and freight demand are two of the most critical issues shippers face in 2025.Tariff volatility and freight demand continue to rattle supply chains across industries. In this episode, Philip and Emily explore what recent policy shifts—particularly the U.S. tariff letters aimed at China, the EU, and Brazil—actually mean for global logistics. They also dig into how shippers are reacting differently compared to earlier shocks like the “Liberation Day” rate surge in April.Key insights from the episode:How newly proposed tariffs (and the fear of enforcement) have impacted demand, even without implementationWhy shippers seem more desensitized to 10–30% duties than ever beforeHow early front-loading has reduced panic responses to new policy threatsThe lag between policy announcements and cost impacts—why it’s hurting even when tariffs are pausedEmily breaks down the shifting dynamics in regional shipping routes. While the Far East to U.S. West Coast lane has seen a steep 57% decline in spot rates since June, North Europe lanes are surging—up 37%—due to congestion, labor disputes, and late vessel arrivals. These contradictory moves reveal just how fragmented global shipping has become, and why understanding demand fundamentals is more important than ever.Also discussed:The recent “calm” in rate activity, and why it might be a deceptive lullMay’s surprising record-high global TEU movement—and why it didn’t sustainWhat port congestion tells us about carrier strategy and capacity imbalanceHow shippers can (and should) prepare for 2026 budgets amid ongoing volatilityPhilip and Emily emphasize the importance of using market data and forward-looking rate indexes to avoid getting blindsided by short-term spikes or dips. They outline how shippers can use Xeneta’s spot and contract rate data to better plan for uncertain quarters ahead—and why relying on index-linked contracts could offer more pricing resilience.If you’re involved in procurement, ocean logistics, or executive supply chain planning, this episode will sharpen your understanding of the forces shaping freight rates globally. From tariffs to trade policy, from congestion to contracts, you’ll walk away with a clearer view of what’s next—and what to do about it.

In this episode of The Freight Debate, hosts Phil and renowned supply chain expert Wolfgang Lehmacher explore how modern businesses are navigating tariffs and digital fragmentation in an increasingly volatile world. Tariffs and fragmentation—two of the most pressing challenges facing global trade—are no longer rare disruptions, but constants that supply chain leaders must actively integrate into their strategic planning. As companies adapt, new strategies and technologies are transforming how decisions are made and how goods move.Wolfgang Lehmacher, with over 25 years of experience at the intersection of people, technology, and logistics, joins to break down these complex dynamics. As a former executive at GeoPost, La Poste, FedEx, and a leader at the World Economic Forum, Wolfgang brings unmatched insight into digital transformation, scenario planning, and how organizations can thrive amid trade policy volatility.The episode kicks off by examining the shift from reacting to tariff fluctuations to proactively building tariff uncertainty into digital decision-making models. Wolfgang shares how businesses, particularly in Asia, are using digital twins and simulation tools to create flexible, responsive operations. These supply chain models allow for real-time visibility, risk mitigation, and smarter sourcing decisions in a fragmented geopolitical landscape.Listeners will also gain insight into the growing reality of internal fragmentation within businesses. Wolfgang underscores the need for cross-functional collaboration—where strategic decisions from the boardroom must be balanced with insights from supply chain planners and procurement experts on the ground. The discussion then moves to "techno-nationalism" and the rise of digital sovereignty. Countries and companies are increasingly wary of dependency on foreign platforms, leading to a splintering of digital ecosystems that can mirror the physical fragmentation of global supply chains.Real-world case studies highlight the episode’s themes. Wolfgang contrasts Apple and Nvidia's diverging strategies in response to U.S.-China tensions—Apple leaning into diversification across Asia, while Nvidia leverages a distributed, innovative model including local manufacturing. These choices not only reflect different business models but forecast future winners in a world where flexibility and innovation are key. The episode also demystifies common misconceptions about diversification. Phil and Wolfgang explore whether these strategies are viable only for global giants or accessible to mid-sized firms too. Spoiler: it’s not always about size—it’s about knowing your options, margins, and capabilities.Finally, the conversation turns to the erosion of trust and the mental shift required to plan for previously unimaginable scenarios. Wolfgang notes that “everything is possible—and its opposite,” a mindset that helps today’s supply chain leaders build resilience, anticipate change, and stay agile. Whether you’re a supply chain strategist, logistics leader, or policy follower, this episode delivers an in-depth look at how businesses can adapt to a future defined by tariffs, digital sovereignty, and global fragmentation. Don't miss Wolfgang Lehmacher's expert take on the tools, thinking, and mindset needed to thrive in today’s trade climate.

In this episode of The Freight Debate, hosts Emily Stausbøll and Phil dive into the game-changing impact of the Gemini Alliance on the global shipping industry. The Gemini Alliance, formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, is redefining container shipping by targeting a groundbreaking 90% schedule reliability.This ambitious goal is critical in an industry where schedule reliability has historically hovered around 60% and is often impacted by global disruptions. The Gemini Alliance's 90% schedule reliability promise isn’t just a bold statement—it’s a calculated strategy rooted in a hub-and-spoke network. Instead of relying on numerous direct port calls, the alliance centralizes operations through major hub ports, which are supported by integrated feeder networks. This operational overhaul allows for fewer port delays and more control over cargo flow, thanks in part to terminal ownership by the alliance’s partners.Emily and Phil break down why this model is resonating across the industry and what it means for shippers. They highlight how the Gemini Alliance’s schedule reliability has already exceeded expectations, reaching high-80% and low-90% performance even during turbulent times, like the aftermath of the Red Sea crisis. This consistency marks a dramatic improvement from previous alliance models, where reliability often dropped below 50%.But the episode doesn’t just applaud the innovation—it examines the trade-offs. Transshipment delays remain a concern, and shippers are understandably cautious. Many have been burned by long wait times at secondary ports, making the industry hesitant to embrace transshipment-heavy models without solid, long-term data. Phil and Emily weigh the benefits of Gemini’s theory against real-world application, asking the tough questions about whether reliability can be consistently maintained across the entire shipping journey. One standout insight from this discussion is how Gemini manages capacity. Instead of blanking sailings, which removes entire departures and disrupts supply chains, Gemini uses smaller vessels to match demand.This approach keeps schedules intact while adjusting capacity—a key contributor to its strong reliability stats. Emily and Phil also explore the economic implications. Despite offering improved service, the Gemini Alliance has not raised freight rates—yet. This pricing decision is crucial for shippers managing tight margins and looking for predictable service without additional costs. As the market adapts, the long-term value proposition of Gemini may shift, potentially introducing a premium pricing tier for consistent performance.This episode is essential listening for supply chain professionals, logistics leaders, and anyone tracking the evolution of global shipping strategies. The Gemini Alliance is positioned as a potential blueprint for the future of reliable, resilient shipping.Tune in to understand what’s working, what still needs to be proven, and how this new alliance may reshape competitive dynamics in ocean freight. Timestamp Topics 00:00 Introduction to the Freight Debate00:25 Exploring the Gemini Alliance and Reliability01:53 Current State of Shipping Reliability03:33 The Ambitious Goals of the Gemini Alliance06:38 The Hub and Spoke Model Explained09:15 Gemini's Performance and Market Comparison12:26 Challenges of Transshipment and Reliability14:12 Pricing and Service Expectations15:34 Capacity Management Strategies18:39 Market Dynamics and Demand Fluctuations20:43 Evaluating Gemini's Vulnerabilities22:14 The Future of Shipping Alliances24:52 Conclusion and Future Topics Learn more at: https://www.xeneta.com/

In this episode of The Freight Debate, hosts Philip Hennessey and Emily Stausbøll dive deep into the ever-evolving world of container shipping and global trade flows, examining the current disruption caused by tariffs and geopolitical tensions. From shifting trade routes due to the 145% China tariffs to the growing complexity of the Red Sea crisis, this discussion offers supply chain professionals critical insight into the forces shaping 2025's logistics landscape.Container shipping and global trade flows remain at the center of this week’s debate. With record-breaking TEU movement in early 2025, container shipping demand continues to show unexpected strength—despite significant drops in exports from China to the US. As Emily points out, exports to South America, Europe, and intra-Asia are absorbing the shortfall, highlighting how global trade flows are adapting dynamically.The episode also unpacks the consequences of tariff hikes and how shippers are finding creative ways to avoid them—such as rerouting goods through alternate countries. Philip and Emily provide clarity on how this affects supply chain strategy, long-term contracting, and rate negotiations.Listeners will also get a detailed look into the Red Sea conflict, the impact of Iranian and Houthi involvement, and why container ships continue avoiding the Suez Canal.Emily breaks down the ripple effects on fuel prices, surcharges, and global freight capacity.From rate forecasts to demand front-loading, and from tariff deadlines to the impact of war on supply chains, this is a must-listen for logistics leaders, freight buyers, and anyone keeping an eye on international shipping lanes. Subscribe to stay ahead of the curve in global logistics.

In this episode, hosts Phil Hennessey and Patrik Berglund, (co-founder and CEO of Xeneta) dive into the evolution of the freight and shipping industry. They candidly discuss the origins of Xeneta, highlighting the challenges of bringing transparency to the complex and often opaque ocean freight market. From their scrappy MVP days—built on spreadsheets and cold calls—to the hurdles of data collection and gaining early adopters, Patrik shares the perseverance and lessons that shaped Xeneta’s journey. The conversation touches on major industry shifts caused by recent global disruptions, the increasing complexity for shippers and carriers, and looks forward to future changes, such as index-linked contracts and advances in predictive analytics. It’s an insightful conversation for anyone interested in supply chain transformation, the power of data, and what it takes to drive real change in a traditional industry.