DiscoverThe Rest Is Politics278. Question Time: How reliable are the polls?
278. Question Time: How reliable are the polls?

278. Question Time: How reliable are the polls?

Update: 2024-07-032
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This episode of The Restless Politics delves into the intricate processes that occur behind the scenes when a new government takes over. Rory Stewart, the host, discusses the "access talks" where civil servants prepare for a potential change in leadership by analyzing the opposition's manifesto and creating contingency plans. He also highlights the role of patronage in the Conservative Party, where positions like those in the government car service are used to reward loyal MPs. The episode then shifts to the influence of the right-wing press on the Conservative Party, with Stewart analyzing how the press office manipulates headlines in Sunday newspapers to influence public opinion. Finally, the episode explores the arguments for and against Biden staying on as president, with Stewart highlighting the concerns about his age and cognitive abilities, as well as the potential risks of replacing him with a new candidate. He also criticizes the argument that Biden should stay on because he has a great team around him, arguing that this is undemocratic and undermines the importance of electing a capable leader.

Outlines

00:00:00
Introduction and Ad-Free Listening

This Chapter introduces The Restless Politics podcast and encourages listeners to sign up for ad-free listening and other benefits.

00:00:13
Question Time: Change of Government

This Chapter focuses on a question from Ben Reed about the operational aspects of a change of government, particularly the handover process and the involvement of the outgoing Prime Minister. Rory Stewart explains the "access talks" where civil servants prepare for a potential change in leadership by analyzing the opposition's manifesto and creating contingency plans.

00:05:56
The Right-Wing Press and the Conservative Party

This Chapter explores the influence of the right-wing press on the Conservative Party, with Rory Stewart analyzing how the press office manipulates headlines in Sunday newspapers to influence public opinion. He discusses the tactics used to secure favorable coverage and the role of political editors in this process.

00:10:34
Arguments for and Against Biden Staying On

This Chapter examines the arguments for and against Biden staying on as president, with Rory Stewart highlighting the concerns about his age and cognitive abilities, as well as the potential risks of replacing him with a new candidate. He also criticizes the argument that Biden should stay on because he has a great team around him, arguing that this is undemocratic and undermines the importance of electing a capable leader.

Keywords

Access Talks


A process in British politics where civil servants prepare for a potential change in government by analyzing the opposition's manifesto and creating contingency plans. These talks involve the existing Prime Minister giving permission for the civil service to engage with opposition parties, including the main opposition party, as well as smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats.

Patronage


The practice of rewarding supporters with positions of power or influence. In the context of the podcast, Rory Stewart discusses how the Conservative Party uses patronage to reward loyal MPs with positions like those in the government car service. This practice has been used historically in various sectors, including nationalized industries, but has diminished with privatization.

Right-Wing Press


A term used to describe newspapers and media outlets that generally support conservative political views. In the podcast, Rory Stewart discusses the influence of the right-wing press on the Conservative Party, particularly the Sunday newspapers, and how they are used to manipulate public opinion and promote specific narratives.

Rishi Sunak


The current Chancellor of the Exchequer in the United Kingdom. He is a member of the Conservative Party and is considered a potential candidate for Prime Minister. In the podcast, Rory Stewart discusses Sunak's relationship with the right-wing press and how he uses them to advance his political agenda.

Joe Biden


The current President of the United States. He is a member of the Democratic Party. In the podcast, Rory Stewart discusses the arguments for and against Biden staying on as president, highlighting concerns about his age and cognitive abilities.

Democratic Party


One of the two major political parties in the United States. In the podcast, Rory Stewart discusses the internal dynamics of the Democratic Party and the challenges of finding a suitable candidate to replace Biden.

Citizens Assemblies


A form of participatory democracy where randomly selected citizens are brought together to discuss and make recommendations on specific policy issues. In the podcast, Rory Stewart advocates for the use of citizens assemblies in British politics, arguing that they can help to improve the quality of decision-making and increase public engagement.

Sue Gray


A senior civil servant in the UK government who conducted an inquiry into parties held at 10 Downing Street during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the podcast, Rory Stewart mentions Gray's report and the issues it raised about the state of British politics.

Brexit


The United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union. In the podcast, Rory Stewart mentions Brexit as an example of a major issue that has not been adequately debated in the current election campaign.

Mental Health


A broad term encompassing a range of emotional, psychological, and social well-being. In the podcast, Rory Stewart mentions mental health as another issue that has been largely ignored in the election campaign.

Q&A

  • What are the "access talks" and how do they work in a change of government?

    The "access talks" are a process where civil servants prepare for a potential change in government by analyzing the opposition's manifesto and creating contingency plans. The existing Prime Minister gives permission for the civil service to engage with opposition parties, including the main opposition party and smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats. This allows the civil service to anticipate the policies and priorities of a potential new government and ensure a smooth transition of power.

  • How does the Conservative Party use patronage to reward loyal MPs?

    The Conservative Party uses patronage to reward loyal MPs with positions like those in the government car service. This practice has been used historically in various sectors, including nationalized industries, but has diminished with privatization. The podcast suggests that the Conservative Party has shifted its focus to these niche positions as a way to maintain control and reward loyalty.

  • How does the right-wing press influence the Conservative Party?

    The right-wing press, particularly the Sunday newspapers, plays a significant role in shaping public opinion and promoting specific narratives. The Conservative Party's press office uses these newspapers to advance its agenda by providing them with exclusive lines and stories. This creates a cycle of influence where the press office controls the narrative and the newspapers amplify it to a wider audience.

  • What are the main arguments for and against Biden staying on as president?

    The main arguments for Biden staying on as president include the potential risks of replacing him with a new candidate and the perceived stability of his current team. However, concerns about his age and cognitive abilities, as well as the undemocratic nature of relying on an unelected team, are significant arguments against his continued presidency.

  • Why does Rory Stewart believe that Labour should focus on reforming the political system?

    Rory Stewart believes that Labour should focus on reforming the political system because it presents an opportunity to improve the quality of decision-making and increase public engagement. He suggests reforms like banning polls during elections, demanding retractions of false statements, and requiring ministers to serve a minimum of two years with proper training. These reforms, he argues, can be implemented without significant financial costs and would demonstrate Labour's commitment to a more transparent and accountable government.

  • What are some of the major issues that have been ignored in the current election campaign?

    Rory Stewart identifies several major issues that have been largely ignored in the current election campaign, including Brexit, the state of prisons, mental health, and the crisis in universities. He argues that these issues are critical and require immediate attention from the incoming government.

  • How does Rory Stewart view the role of polls in the election?

    Rory Stewart is wary of polls and believes that they have been given too much weight in the current election campaign. He argues that polls can influence public opinion and discourage voters from engaging with the issues, particularly when they suggest a foregone conclusion. He draws parallels with France, where polls dominate the political discourse, and India, where polls are banned during elections.

  • What are some of the reforms that Rory Stewart believes Labour should implement?

    Rory Stewart advocates for several reforms that he believes Labour should implement, including banning polls during elections, demanding retractions of false statements, requiring ministers to serve a minimum of two years with proper training, and increasing the use of citizens assemblies. He argues that these reforms would improve the quality of decision-making, increase public engagement, and make the political system more transparent and accountable.

  • How does Rory Stewart plan to vote in the election?

    Rory Stewart is leaning towards voting for the Labour candidate in Kensington, Joe Powell, due to his work in Afghanistan. He also expresses a desire for Labour to adopt a more prominent role for citizens assemblies, which he believes would solidify his vote.

Show Notes

What happens at Number 10 when there is a change of government? Are polls a help or hinderance to the parties pre-election day? What are the benefits of Joe Biden staying on as Presidential nominee?


Rory and Alastair answer all these questions and more in this week's Question Time.


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278. Question Time: How reliable are the polls?

278. Question Time: How reliable are the polls?

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