After winter storm surge, Colorado snowpack levels may flatten amid week-long dry spell
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Snowpack levels in Colorado continue to outperform past years, with the latest surge driven by an intense series of winter storms that brought multiple feet of fresh snow across the High Country.
Snowpack, also referred to as snow-water equivalent, is a measurement of how much liquid water is held within the state’s snowfields. How much snowpack Colorado banks this winter will heavily influence drought conditions, stream flow and the health of the state’s reservoirs.
Statewide snowpack levels reached 134% of the 30-year-median as of Friday, Nov. 29, according to data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. It’s the highest level for this time of year in the past 10 years.
River basins with the highest snowpack levels are concentrated in the southern half of the state, with snowpack in the Arkansas River Basin — which stretches from north of Colorado Springs to the New Mexico border — standing at nearly 200% of normal as of Friday.
The central-mountain Colorado Headwaters River basin stood at 134% while the Yampa-White-Little Snake River Basin — which includes Steamboat Springs — stood at 103%. Snowpack levels typically peak in April, though the dates vary by basin.
“We’re off to a great start, especially with the storm that just came through,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Zach Hiris. “We’ve got plenty of time to build up the snowpack, it’s just a matter of what the second half of the winter looks like in terms of how we end the season.”
Back-to-back storms late last week and through Wednesday have helped ski areas open acres of new terrain, with Copper Mountain becoming the first resort in Colorado to net 100 inches of snowfall this season.
The powder frenzy will enter a hiatus, however, with no new snow in sight for at least the next week.
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The 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows a heightened chance the state’s mountains will see below-normal precipitation. The month-long outlook for December shows equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation with slightly elevated chances of above-normal temperatures.
“The forecast is bleak in terms of much-needed precipitation,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Koopmeiners. “There’s a slow warming trend, and it is just bone dry.”
Forecasts show the next best chance of snow for the state’s mountains may not be until the second week of December, with mild temperatures that may creep above normal, though daytime highs in mountain valley areas will still only hover in the 30s.
OpenSnow.com founding meteorologist Joel Gratz, in a Friday blog post, predicted the state’s fast-climbing snowpack line will flatten during this time and hover right around normal.
“Our snowpack will be okay since the sun angle is low and temperatures will be cool,” Gratz wrote.
The next chance for snowfall could be around Dec. 9 or 10, though Gratz said there’s only currently between a 20% and 30% chance. Greater confidence is building for a storm to hit by the end of that week, around Dec. 13 or 14.
Forecasts “depict a change in the overall storm track with colder air and storm energy beginning to track into the Rockies and potentially back to the West Coast,” Gratz wrote. “With this trend in the models, I’m relatively optimistic that we’ll have more snow to talk about starting in mid-December, though a two-week forecast is only useful for spotting trends and not forecasting weather on specific days.”