In this episode, Garrison was joined by Elbridge Colby, author of The Strategy of Denial and key architect of the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy.

They discuss an overview of Colby’s landmark book and its strategic approach to the rise of China and maintenance of U.S. national defense. In light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the two discuss the return of military hard power to European security and world order, including the drastic shift in Berlin and other European capitols towards enhanced defense, and implications for the idea of increased burden sharing. The position of denial is contrasted to the historic trend towards neo-conservative posture on one side or neo-isolationism on the other.

The two discuss the hypothetical fait accompli strategy of Beijing towards a war with Taiwan, and whether or not this describes Vladimir Putin’s intended plan for Ukraine (and lessons that holds for the PRC). Their discussion also focuses on potential pitfalls for US deterrence of a potential conflict in Taiwan given China's greater economic strength vis a vis Russia; the need to balance support for Europe while maintaining a clear higher priority for Washington to focus on China as the biggest national security challenge. The role of scarcity in defense strategy is discussed, with a key focus on the need to differentiate responses based on region, and to accommodate various allied and partner responses based on the immediacy of the respective regional threats. Further discussion focuses on the nature of the Russian military power in a ‘limited war’ and its implications for Moscow’s power projection capabilities; the warning the present crisis presents to Taipei (and questions surrounding stirring Taiwanese commitment to defense); whether taking Taiwan would be harder or easier based on geography when compared to Ukraine; and they close out the discussion on the Biden Administration's response and what must be improved towards both China and Russia.

Colby’s article from TIME Magazine can be found here:

https://tinyurl.com/colbyTIME

Elbridge Colby is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition. He is the author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict (Yale University Press), which The Wall Street Journal selected as one of the top ten books of 2021.

Previously, Colby was from 2018-2019 the Director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security. Before that, he served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development from 2017-2018. In that role, he served as the lead official in the development and rollout of the Department’s preeminent strategic planning guidance, the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) which shifted the DoD’s focus to the challenges to U.S. military superiority and interests posed by China in particular followed by Russia, prioritizing restoring the Joint Force’s warfighting edge against these major power competitors.

Prior to this, Colby was from 2014 to 2017 the Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and held numerous roles across the federal government. Colby is a graduate of Harvard College and Yale Law School.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States.

Guest opinions are their own. Originally recorded 2/28/22