In this episode, Garrison is joined by Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, to discuss a wide range of topics about the Ukraine Crisis.

The two discuss the history of NATO expansion and Ukrainian orientation as a few of the factors influencing the timing of the present crisis; the stance of the West; and the strategic motivations behind Russia’s current aggressive posture. The two also discuss the future of potential NATO membership for Kiev, whether or not there is “trade space” regarding the subject of implied Ukrainian neutrality and so forth. They take a careful look at the questions surrounding Germany’s stance under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and what future (if any) there is for Macron’s view of Europe as a “strategic balancer” (exercising strategic autonomy with French leadership) in light of the current security challenges facing the continent. And how has domestic politics influenced London, Berlin, and Paris in their recent stances?

In light of a potential Russian invasion the two discuss possible impacts of sanctions on Moscow and what responses (such as cyberattacks) Putin may undertake in retaliation. Most importantly, Fontaine examines the implications for the “pivot to Asia” if Putin green lights an invasion of Ukraine, and what future U.S. priorities will be in light of a renewed sense of danger in Eastern Europe. The two close by discussing what grade that Fontaine would give to the Biden administration’s handling of the Ukraine crisis and how they might improve that response.

Richard Fontaine is CEO of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). He served as President of CNAS from 2012-2019 and previously as a Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow. He also served as foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain for more than five years. He has worked at the State Department, the National Security Council and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Mr. Fontaine served as foreign policy advisor to the McCain 2008 presidential campaign and, following the election, as the minority deputy staff director on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Prior to this, he served as associate director for Near Eastern affairs at the National Security Council (NSC) from 2003-04. He also worked in the NSC’s Asian Affairs directorate, where he covered Southeast Asian issues.

During his time at the State Department, Mr. Fontaine worked in the office of former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and in the department’s South Asia bureau, working on issues related to India, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Mr. Fontaine began his foreign policy career as a staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, focusing on the Middle East and South Asia. He also spent a year teaching English in Japan. A native of New Orleans, Mr. Fontaine graduated summa cum laude with a B.A. in International Relations from Tulane University. He also holds a M.A. in International Affairs from the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, and he attended Oxford University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and is an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States.

All guest opinions are their own and not that of The New Diplomatist podcast formally.

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Originally Recorded Feb 7. 2022