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INTERACTIVE BROKERS

 Warm-Up

- OBBBA written into law!

- Big week for Coney Island

- The American Party - Musk taking a shot

- Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening

- BIG WIN FOR US AT AIRPORTS!

Markets

- ATH before the July 4th break

- Jobs numbers - a bit surprising

- Tariff threats are back - full court press is on!

-- Letters are going out!

- NVDA - History in the making

THE WINNER OF THE CTP - Something that never happened before!

Earnings Season

According to Factset:

- During the second quarter, analysts reduced earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by a wider margin than usual.

- The bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2—which aggregates the median EPS forecasts for all companies in the index—fell by 4.2%, dropping from $65.55 on March 31 to $62.83 by June 30.

- While it’s common for analysts to lower EPS estimates during a quarter, the size of this quarter’s decline stands out. Over the past 5 years (20 quarters), the average quarterly decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 3.0%.

- Over the past 10 years (40 quarters), the average drop was 3.1%, and over the past 15 years (60 quarters), it was 3.2%.

- Only when looking back 20 years (80 quarters) does the average match this quarter’s 4.2% decline.

--- What this means is that easier hurdles to get over for companies that have had their earnings estimates slashed.

ELON

- On July 5, Musk said he would found an "America Party" as an alternative to the Republican and Democratic parties. Musk says the party will focus on "just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 house districts."

- He can't be President, what are his aspirations here?

Joey, Joey, Joey

- Joey Chestnut on Friday regained his longtime title of champion in the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest at New York City's Coney Island after he was banned from the competition last year.

- In the 2025 contest, he ate 70.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes, totaling roughly 21,150 calories, 1,269 grams of fat, and 48,280 milligrams of sodium

Tariffs

- After OBBBA - good time to start this up again

- Bessent, White House and Navarro are back on the Tariff Trail

-  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners saying tariffs will boomerang back to April 2 levels on Aug. 1 if there is no progress.

- Bessent rejected that Aug. 1 is a new trading deadline, but it could still give countries more time to negotiate.

Bessent also said that he expects to see “several big announcements over the next couple of days” about trade deals.

- Johnny:I am going to count to three!

- Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.”

- Trump’s announcement, which did not elaborate on any specific policy of BRICS, came as the group’s meeting is underway in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

- Navarro out with his usual tough talk about all countries in the world screwing America on CNBC Monday..

- Trump said he had signed letters to 12 countries outlining the various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the United States, with the “take it or leave it” offers to be sent out on Monday.

OOPS THERE IT IS!

- Monday 12PM: President Trump posts letters to Prime Minister of Japan, President of the Republic of Korea outlining 25% tariffs starting August 1}- Sends out a total of 14 letters. Markets miffed, but don't care

China and Trade Deal

- GE Aerospace has received U.S. government approval to resume jet engine shipments to China's COMAC, following a period of suspension due to trade tensions. This decision allows GE to supply engines for COMAC's aircraft programs, including the LEAP-1C for the C919 and the CF34 for the C909.

- Again, nothing more or less, just putting things back to g3ther after Humpty Dumpty broke into pieces on Liberation Day

CELEBRATION

- It’s now OK to keep your shoes on at some airports checkpoints

- The Transportation Safety Administration will allow passengers at selected airports to keep their footwear on as they go through security checkpoints, a senior government official tells NBC News.

- People in screening lanes will have to keep their shoes on at selected airports, but the source said the relaxation of the rules could expand nationwide in the near future.

TSA Lines

OBBBA

- Some highlights

OBBBA Highlights

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Economic Boost

- Now that there is "no tax" on tips - do we tip less? Seems like we should back off by 25% on the 15-18% customary. New 2026 customary 13%? Which would in effect be more money in our pockets to spend and boost the economy! SMART!

- Foodservers/Tips Related workers could save up to about $3,000 a year in taxes if you can take full deduction ($25,000 of tips excluded through 2028)

- Overtime workers get a deduction - 

Overtime:

-The OBBBA also provides a temporary above-the-line deduction for qualified overtime compensation.

Overtime pay is exempt from federal income tax up to:

- $12,500 for individuals

- $25,000 for married couples filing jointly

- The deduction phases out for MAGI above $150,000 (individuals) or $300,000 (joint filers).

- Qualified overtime includes pay mandated by the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) that exceeds the employee’s regular rate.

- Employers must report total overtime compensation on W-2 forms to support the deduction.

- Payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare) still apply to overtime pay

Employment Report

- Job Growth: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June.

- Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in May.

- Private Sector: Private sector job growth was weaker, with some sectors experiencing job losses.

- Government Employment: Government employment saw gains, with state and local governments adding jobs.

- Average Hourly Earnings: Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% in June and 3.7% over the year.

- Workweek: The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours.

---Takeaway - Government hiring seems to push the numbers in the right direction - odd that hiring was up

OIL - Boosting Supply

- Eight oil-producing nations of the OPEC+ alliance agreed on Saturday to increase their collective crude production by 548,000 barrels per day, as they continue to unwind a set of voluntary supply cuts.

- This subset of the alliance — compri