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INTERACTIVE BROKERS

 Warm-Up

- Fed - Standing Pat

- Tariffs ON ( with some delays, pauses and delays

- India taking Heat

- OPEC at it Again

Markets

-Employment Report - Revisions Gone Wild

- But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap)

- Earnings Season - Plenty of CapX

- Boeing making moves  - unions may strike

The Bend and Snap

- That is the markets - any little movement down - snaps right back up (Buy Dip with a Legally Blonde flair)

- Monday saw a huge reversal after the VIX hit 21.50 and small caps were down as much as 3% after the July Employment report and lackluster earnings

Jobs Report

- 4.2% Unemployment Rate

- Only added 73,000 in July

- Revisions for May and June were larger than normal.

- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised  down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.

- With these revisions, employment in May and June  combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.

THEN.....

- President Donald Trump on Friday fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, hours after the agency reported that job growth in the U.S. had slowed to a near-halt.

- “We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

GDP

- Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.

- Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.

- While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.

- HUGE Number - flurry after some Tariff uncertainty lifted in April

OIL

- OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia.

- The move marks a full and early reversal of OPEC+'s largest tranche of output cuts plus a separate increase in output for the United Arab Emirates amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of world demand.

- In a statement following the meeting, OPEC+ cited a healthy economy and low stocks as reasons behind its decision.

- Eight countries to hike September output by 547,000 bpd

- Oil supported by US demands for India to stop buying Russian oil

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Earnings News

Coinbase

- Coinbase shares fell after gains in the cryptocurrency exchange’s subscription revenue failed to offset weaker trading volumes.

- Revenue rose slightly to $1.5 billion from $1.45 billion in the same quarter last year, but fell short of analyst estimates.

- Coinbase reported that retail trading volume, which is typically more profitable than institutional volume, grew 16% year-over-year to $43 billion, but missed the $48.05 billion expected by analysts survey

Reddit

- Revenue grew 78% year-over-year in the second quarter and was 17% above consensus estimates, the biggest beat in the company’s short history as a public company.

- Reddit said third-quarter revenue will be in the range of $535 million to $545 million, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $473 million.

- Adjusted earnings in the third quarter are projected to be in between $185 million to $195 million, ahead of StreetAccount’s estimates of $160 million.

- Shares surged on the news

Berkshire

- Berkshire’s operating profit — those from the company’s wholly owned businesses including insurance and railroads — dipped to $11.16 billion in the second quarter.

- Buffett’s cash hoard of $344.1 billion remained near a record high, though slightly lower than the $347 billion level at the end of March.

- Berkshire was a net seller of stocks for a 11th quarter in a row, dumping $4.5 billion in equities in the first six months of 2025.

- More importantly: The conglomerate also didn’t repurchase any stock in the first half of 2025 even as shares declined more than 10% from a record high.

Apple

- Apple reports biggest revenue growth since December 2021

- Earnings per share: $1.57 vs. $1.43 expected

- Revenue: $94.04 billion vs. $89.53 billion expected

- iPhone revenue: $44.58 billion vs. $40.22 billion expected

- Mac revenue: $8.05 billion vs. $7.26 billion expected

- iPad revenue: $6.58 billion vs. $7.24 billion expected

- Other Products revenue: $7.40 billion vs. $7.82 billion expected

- Services revenue: $27.42 billion vs. $26.80 billion expected

- Gross margin: 46.5% vs. 45.9% expected

- Apple incurred $800 million in tariff costs in the June quarter, Apple CEO Tim Cook said on the call. That came in lower than the $900 million estimate the company provided in May. For the September quarter, assuming no changes, Apple could incur about $1.1 billion in tariff costs, Cook said.

- STOCK DOWN after report

Amazon

- Earnings per share: $1.68 vs. $1.33 expected

- Revenue: $167.7 billion vs. $162.09 billion expected

- Amazon Web Services: $30.87 billion vs. $30.8 billion expected

- Advertising: $15.7 billion vs. $14.9 billion expected

- For the current quarter, Amazon said it expects operating income to land between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion. Analysts were looking for $19.48 billion

- STOCK DOWN after report

Fall From Grace

- UnitedHealth Group on Tuesday issued a 2025 outlook that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, as the company’s insurance unit continues to grapple with higher medical costs.

- The company anticipates it will post 2025 adjusted earnings of at least $16 per share, with revenue of $445.5 billion to $448 billion.

- Wall Street analysts had expected 2025 adjusted profit of $20.91 per share, and full-year revenue of $449.16 billion, according to consensus estimates

AMD Earnings

- An OKAY quarter - met expectations on EPS beat revenues, guides revenues for next quarter above analysts estimates

-- Big revenue promises again into the future - but that did not help the stock (dvanced Micro Devices sees Q3 revs $8.4-9.0 bln vs $8.32 bln FactSet Consensus )

- Non-GAAP gross margin of 43% compared to 53% in year-earlier quarter.

- Down 6% after hours

Weird Story

- High Noon has issued a recall of one of its popular vodka seltzer drinks, saying some packages may contain Celsius energy drink cans filled with the alcoholic beverage.

- The cans, labeled as Celsius Astro Vibe Sparkling Blue Razz Edition, were found in certain shipments of High Noon’s Beach Variety 12-packs.

- The issue was traced to a packaging supplier that accidentally sent Celsius-branded cans to High Noon’s facility

- They were distributed to multiple states including Florida, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin.

FOMC Meeting

- 2 dissents - as expected

- No change  in rate - outlook is fluid

- Still sees risk of inflation

- BUT, now that 50k revisions to jobs number.....?????

Scabs