EP308 - Amazon Q2 Earnings

http://jasonandscot.com

Amazon reported a strong quarter across the board for Q2, soundly exceeding analyst expectations and retail industry averages. In this episode we break down the 1p and 3p retail performance, AWS, and the Ads. We go into depth around Amazon disruption reorganization (to a regional model), Amazon's newest efforts in grocery, and health care.

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.

Episode 308 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, August 4, 2023.

Transcript

Jason:
[0:23 ] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode a 308 being recorded on Thursday August 3rd 2023 that's a lot of Threes I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo.

Scot:
[0:40 ] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scott showed listeners well Jason today is one of my four favorite days of the year it is Amazon earnings day.

Jason:
[0:51 ] I was going to guess it's the 4th Halloween okay.

Scot:
[0:54 ] Nope good guess and today was a real doozy so we have a lot to talk about and of course it wouldn't be a Jason and Scot show without.

Jason:
[1:05 ] Amazon news your margin is there opportunity.

Scot:
[1:18 ] That's right sometimes I hear from listeners why do you guys spend so much time talking about Amazon well my rationale is a it's one of my favorite subjects did be not only is Amazon the biggest retailer but it represents over half of e-commerce and for our listeners I think their data is pretty much the standard compared to even anything like comscore or adobe, just by definition of them having so much data that it is the basically the best source for what's going on and then given our macro environment we're at the tail end of the last show you were talking about how it's setting up for kind of a bad holiday so we're heading into this it's a critical quarter and for me Q to see what Amazon is done really sets us up for the back half of the year.
And especially holiday.
So kind of a canary in the coal mine and right now there's all this confusing data coming out about the consumer you see things that sentiment is down travel to starting to tip over housing is slowing so there's some negative but yet credit card spend is going pretty well and so this is probably the best read we're going to get on the consumer heading into holiday.

[2:39 ] So I think of it as Scott foreshadowing the whole industry that's why we like to spend a lot of time on it, so the other thing I'll point out is it's been kind of a rough period for Amazon the last, probably 6/4 a day that things have slowed down post covid they've struggled they've done some layoffs but having watched Amazon if we zoom zoom out having followed them since 97 they're really good at reading the room and if the market and the externalities are saying you're free to invest they will invest like crazy and you know and by saying that I mean they'll focus on Revenue growth implementing infrastructure but then when the macro turns - and they can move to harvest pretty quickly so, a lot of that kind of goes as good as Wall Street so Wall Street will love them and give them a lot of rope and they'll invest invest invest and then while she starts to worry they're like oh my gosh this is scary your spending so much things are doing this and then they will turn very quickly and can then get into Harvest mode and produce results that's a really a big theme for this quarter so that's part of the set of the other part of the setup is we have some eCommerce data coming into this what is that, what are those tea leaves tell us before we jump into Amazon.

Jason:
[4:00 ] Yeah so we have data from the US Department of Commerce through June and it is a really complicated story so that the top line is a little bit of a worrisome sign so year-to-date January through June of this year retail sales are 1.9 percent higher than they were during that same period last year so time now to put that in perspective in the 10 years leading up to covid we average retail growth of 4% a year so so far this year the growth is less than half of the industry average and then the last three years of growth the last 3 years of Cook post covid were the biggest three years of retail growth in the history of retail so we had these three monster years and now for the first time we have a six month period That's, well off the average and, Q2 was worse than q1 now you know people always say well what about inflation in these numbers if you adjust all these numbers back to 2019 dollars to sort of take inflation out of it, retail sales this year are actually down 2.8